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Potential Hermine Impacts


Zelocita Weather

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It seems like the 12z runs always look great and get our hopes up. Then at 18z things start shifting back East again and by 00z it's full suicide mode.

from OKX write-up yesterday

WHILE THE OVERALL MODEL TREND   HAS BEEN FOR HERMINE TO TRACK FARTHER WEST, THERE HAVE BEEN   TYPICAL DIURNAL FLIP-FLOPS, WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE TENDING TO   BE FARTHER WEST THAN THE 00Z GUIDANCE, SO TOOK A BLENDED APPROACH   USING BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF, GFS, AND   CANADIAN MODELS.

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1 minute ago, mikemost said:

from OKX write-up yesterday

WHILE THE OVERALL MODEL TREND   HAS BEEN FOR HERMINE TO TRACK FARTHER WEST, THERE HAVE BEEN   TYPICAL DIURNAL FLIP-FLOPS, WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE TENDING TO   BE FARTHER WEST THAN THE 00Z GUIDANCE, SO TOOK A BLENDED APPROACH   USING BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF, GFS, AND   CANADIAN MODELS.

If it gets trapped by the ULL moving through the TN Valley it has no choice but to come back to the West. It's just a matter of how far West the rain makes it. Either way the impacts at the beaches are going to be moderate-severe. It really is an easy forecast from that standpoint. The only way we avoid that is if it moves East from VA Beach and OTS.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I'd say it's almost a lock that the NJ barrier islands are going to be on mandatory evacuation this weekend. Talk about terrible timing. 

yep.   A great summer for business and visitors up until this point.  They will have to start tomorrow or Saturday if current trends hold.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'd say it's almost a lock that the NJ barrier islands are going to be on mandatory evacuation this weekend. Talk about terrible timing. 

That would be a nightmare and can only imagine political pressure being applied to make that call.  

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

that track has flip flopped all week.   

The track doesn't matter. Every single piece of reliable guidance has it stalled either off the Delmarva or SNJ for over a day with TS force winds battering the beaches.

Major coastal flooding is almost imminent. 

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The track doesn't matter. Every single piece of reliable guidance has it stalled either off the Delmarva or SNJ for over a day with TS force winds battering the beaches.

Major coastal flooding is almost imminent. 

the rain shield doesnt even have to reach land for the big winds.   Big blocking high to the north, if the pressure on this thing is 990 or something like that the winds are going to be crazy.  Heard elsewhere, but there's also a good jetstreak to enhance the storm along with the bathwater off the coast.

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the rain shield doesnt even have to reach land for the big winds.   Big blocking high to the north, if the pressure on this thing is 990 or something like that the winds are going to be crazy.  Heard elsewhere, but there's also a good jetstreak to enhance the storm along with the bathwater off the coast.

I think with Sandy I had under an inch of rain total. 

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12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'd say it's almost a lock that the NJ barrier islands are going to be on mandatory evacuation this weekend. Talk about terrible timing. 

It won't be mandatory,  but voluntary.  I'm in Seaside,  Mayor said they'd apply it in such a way that you'd need to prove you're a resident.  Which is basically the same thing as mandatory at this point.  

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11 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Steven's Institute warning of slight chance for Major Flooding at Sandy Hook in 72hrs.    GFS does seem to dig storm right into the NYC Bight on Sunday PM as it weakens and begins to move away leaving, clouds/drizzle early Monday.

http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/d/index.shtml?station=N021

Monday isn't going to be a nice day

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Just now, pstar3182 said:

It won't be mandatory,  but voluntary.  I'm in Seaside,  Mayor said they'd apply it in such a way that you'd need to prove you're a resident.  Which is basically the same thing as mandatory at this point.  

They did mandatory evacuations with Irene and it wasn't hardly the wind threat that this is because the system ran inland from NC.

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