Hoth Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Interesting to note that while this thing looks somewhat extratropical in its satellite presentation, as soon as the COC hit the water on the Outer Banks it started to warm. Latent heat still being drawn in, sensible heat still being released. Will be interesting to see how it responds once it gets well clear of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 I can't remember the last time I saw vorticity on the 500 mb chart reaching close to 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 10 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Still seems to be pretty tucked into the coast... Surprised that the NHC took out the bend back to the coast with their latest track. Also how did it strength while over land... Could their forecast of 75 minimum hurricane be a little conservative? They will most likely change their track, but Hermine is still a huge uncertainty on where he will go, so of course nhc is being cautious, and I don't blame them. Looks to me imho that he will meander in the Atl, and slowly drift north towards and eventually north of the bm south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 9 minutes ago, Metsfan said: They will most likely change their track, but Hermine is still a huge uncertainty on where he will go, so of course nhc is being cautious, and I don't blame them. Looks to me imho that he will meander in the Atl, and slowly drift north towards and eventually north of the bm south of LI. might end up more of an eastern LI and Cape Cod threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: I can't remember the last time I saw vorticity on the 500 mb chart reaching close to 80. Hi sorry can you explain what this exactly means if you don't mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Hi sorry can you explain what this exactly means if you don't mind? It's the vorticity level at the bottom. http://weather.unisys.com/model/details.php#500mb The vorticity field shows small eddies in the atmosphere that generally are not detectable on the standard height field. Values of 14 (green) or higher highlight those eddies. The higher the vorticity, the stronger the eddy. These eddies can help strengthen surface low pressure systems and induce precipitation and are often used as a predictive tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It's the vorticity level at the bottom where the different colors are. http://weather.unisys.com/model/details.php#500mb The vorticity field shows small eddies in the atmosphere that generally are not detectable on the standard height field. Values of 14 (green) or higher highlight those eddies. The higher the vorticity, the stronger the eddy. These eddies can help strengthen surface low pressure systems and induce precipitation and are often used as a predictive tool. Gotcha, thank you for great explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 According to radar looks like the center is over the water... Anybody have confirmation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Rain is to Cape May already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Geeing a bit breezy here in the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Geeing a bit breezy here in the last hour Yea. Winds are starting to kick up a bit out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Not much discussion going on anymore. Is this thing even hitting us hard like it was going to before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, snow1 said: Not much discussion going on anymore. Is this thing even hitting us hard like it was going to before? Everything trended a tad east. Need to see the 12Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, snow1 said: Not much discussion going on anymore. Is this thing even hitting us hard like it was going to before? No 12z models are out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Pretty incredible to think she will be sitting within 150 miles of the coast as an intensifying system from now until Wed. Wave heights already jumped off the coast of LI shortly after Hermine emerged from the Va coast. Should be fascinating to watch sea level and wave heights gradually climb over this timeframe. Anyone not thinking this will have significant beach erosion and coastal flooding impacts from Cape Cod to Delaware is fooling themselves. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: 6z 4kmNAM drops pressure close to Euro and has a similar track. Has Hermine increasing to 84 mph cat 1 hurricane. It is drifting north at that point thereafter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 It will fascinating to see the high to the northeast, pressing south and begin to assert itself later today, as Hermine hits a brick wall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: It is drifting north at that point thereafter? I understand you want to know if Hermine has an impact on NY, but you've got to stop clogging up this thread with questions that could be answered if you look at the models yourself. Here is a link to a model site. Use it. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 You can bet there will be no shortage of power outages with a long duration of TS force gusts and foliated trees. The duration is going to be a key factor here aside from strength alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 NAM coming in stronger and with a much more expansive rain shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 12z NAM is def coming W in a large way s ofar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Major changes on the 12z NAM FWIW, much stronger and going to be NW this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, Highzenberg said: Major changes on the 12z NAM FWIW, much stronger and going to be NW this run. Even at hour 30 is still north and west but not sure if it will be enough for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Way further northwest at hour 36 Precip gets up here compared to the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 24 minutes ago, WaPo said: I understand you want to know if Hermine has an impact on NY, but you've got to stop clogging up this thread with questions that could be answered if you look at the models yourself. Here is a link to a model site. Use it. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ I'm sorry but I am not clogging up the thread.... I have been around for almost 10 years and I have added some interesting insite along the way. I was just asking a simple question. Sometimes I don't have the ability to answer my own question since I am usually on my phone and don't have a computer readily available. So it would just be much appreciated to answer a simple question. BTW sorry for that little rant. Kinda like the NAM being further NW maybe we can get that bend back to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Nam Hour 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: Nam Hour 36 Wow that is much improved Ant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 NAM has 50 knot sustained on shore near Seaside side Heights LBI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam Hour 36 Looks like 50-75 mile jump northwest of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.