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Potential Hermine Impacts

Zelocita Weather

By Zelocita Weather,
in New York City Metro

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Jim Marusak

Jim Marusak

Posted
Posted

guys and gals. what does this all mean for things like say the airlines for the NYC hubs, other than scrambling due to major delays from landing/takeoff turbulence? and I'm assuming the ferries from LI, CT, NJ, and RI would be shut down due to high waves for at least a day or two under the different scenarios as well?

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HillsdaleMIWeather

HillsdaleMIWeather

Posted
Posted

Letting you all know Hermine just managed to strengthen over land. 


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 77.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Might seriously have to consider this thing making it to up by you all as a Hurricane. And with the potential stalling, let's hope the post-Sandy protocols would be used.

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BxWeatherwatcher

BxWeatherwatcher

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Letting you all know Hermine just managed to strengthen over land. 


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 77.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Might seriously have to consider this thing making it to up by you all as a Hurricane. And with the potential stalling, let's hope the post-Sandy protocols would be used.

 

the center of circulation is now just about over water seeking the warm gulf stream and starting to pull in the moisture.some would say that this is going to get bad for portions of the northeast and extreme southeastern new england.i just don't see hermine going out to sea with blocking on the backside of a retreating high.a strengthening storm coming up and curving back is not a pretty thought after sandy but it's looking that way.sst's are also slightly above normal in the atlantic b.t.w... 

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

I think models shift further east today. It's moving fast and ahead of schedule, I don't think it'll slow down until it's much further east. This morning's Nam illustrates that perfectly. 

Wow big shift east on the gfs, I've never seen such a huge shift for a 24 hr forecast. Big win for tropical guidance suite. Effects will be lessoned significantly even for the shoreline. 

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted

These discussions from Mt.Holly and Upton sound pretty serious to me, obviously still some uncertainty.

Mt.Holly:

  

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* Tropical storm Hermine will impact our weather through the
  holiday.*

* No Change in tropical headlines from previous package.*

Models are in fairly good agreement with keeping Hermine off the
Delmarva coast from Sunday morning through Monday before it shifts
slowly northward to a position off the New Jersey coast from Tuesday
into Friday with only a gradual decrease in intensity during this
period. This will result in a prolonged onshore component to the
wind (northeast), which in turn will prolong tidal flooding issues
along the coast and back bays which won`t be able to drain. The
GFS indicates Hermine may even bobble closer to the New Jersey
coast Sunday night and Monday as it interacts with the mid-level
flow, which will bring stronger winds and heavier rain further
inland during that time period. The models also depict a very
impressive pressure gradient between the center of the storm and
the western fringes of our CWA, meaning all areas will see gusty
winds from this system...strongest near the coast where gusts up
to 60 MPH are possible late Sunday into Monday...with gusts in the
30 to 40 mph range possible in the Philadelphia metro area. In
terms of rain...it appears the most impressive rainfall rates will
be located near the center of the system out over the western
Atlantic, with a sharp cutoff along the New Jersey and Delaware
coast lines. As Hermine bobbles slightly westward late Sunday into
Monday. the western edge of the rain will shift westward too,
providing the non- shore areas with a steady and perhaps heavy
rain during that time period. All-in-all, this storm looks like it
could wind up being a coastal event with all the ingredients of a
nasty nor`easter, including heavy rain...coastal flooding (ocean
front and back bays), strong winds, rough surf, high seas, and
beach erosion.

Guidance suggests Hermine will begin to slowly move east-northeast
Thursday night...before losing its grip on our weather altogether on
Friday as high pressure builds in from the west. Warmer than normal
temperatures are expected at the end of the week, with highs in the
90s Thursday and Friday. High humidity could push heat index values
into the upper 90s in spots...especially on Friday. Clouds
associated with an approaching cold front should keep temperatures
a little cooler on Saturday.
&&

Upton:

  

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main story of the Long Term is Tropical Cyclone Hermine as it
slowly tracks towards, but never quite reaches, Long Island
through midweek, then exits out into the Canadian Maritimes by the
end of the week.

The following impacts are at least possible if not expected:

1) Dangerous Rip Currents are expected from this weekend through
the middle of next week.

2) Moderate to probably major coastal flooding is likely from
Sunday into at least Monday and possibly Tuesday. Significant
beach erosion from high surf is also likely. Refer to the tides
and coastal flooding section of the AFD for details.

3) Sustained Winds to Tropical Storm Force (at least 39 mph) are
possible over mainly southern coastal areas from late Sunday into
Monday morning.

4) Locally heavy rainfall producing localized fresh water flooding
remains a relatively low threat. Refer to the hydrology section of
the AFD for details.

The ECMWF is alone in bringing in measurable precipitation before
12z Sunday...so have basically followed a non-ECMWF blend for
timing/distribution of precipitation. As a result have only chance
pops Sunday, then likely pops from Sunday night into Monday night.
Still have uncertainty on how fast Hermine exits to the east (The
ECMWF for now is a progressive outlier), so linger chance pops
into Wednesday - mainly over eastern zones.

Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest in regards
to Tropical Cyclone Hermine as there is uncertainty.

Deep layered ridging builds in behind Hermine to close the week -
probably in the Thursday-Friday time frame.

&&
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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

These discussions from Mt.Holly and Upton sound pretty serious to me, obviously still some uncertainty.

Mt.Holly:

  


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* Tropical storm Hermine will impact our weather through the
  holiday.*

* No Change in tropical headlines from previous package.*

Models are in fairly good agreement with keeping Hermine off the
Delmarva coast from Sunday morning through Monday before it shifts
slowly northward to a position off the New Jersey coast from Tuesday
into Friday with only a gradual decrease in intensity during this
period. This will result in a prolonged onshore component to the
wind (northeast), which in turn will prolong tidal flooding issues
along the coast and back bays which won`t be able to drain. The
GFS indicates Hermine may even bobble closer to the New Jersey
coast Sunday night and Monday as it interacts with the mid-level
flow, which will bring stronger winds and heavier rain further
inland during that time period. The models also depict a very
impressive pressure gradient between the center of the storm and
the western fringes of our CWA, meaning all areas will see gusty
winds from this system...strongest near the coast where gusts up
to 60 MPH are possible late Sunday into Monday...with gusts in the
30 to 40 mph range possible in the Philadelphia metro area. In
terms of rain...it appears the most impressive rainfall rates will
be located near the center of the system out over the western
Atlantic, with a sharp cutoff along the New Jersey and Delaware
coast lines. As Hermine bobbles slightly westward late Sunday into
Monday. the western edge of the rain will shift westward too,
providing the non- shore areas with a steady and perhaps heavy
rain during that time period. All-in-all, this storm looks like it
could wind up being a coastal event with all the ingredients of a
nasty nor`easter, including heavy rain...coastal flooding (ocean
front and back bays), strong winds, rough surf, high seas, and
beach erosion.

Guidance suggests Hermine will begin to slowly move east-northeast
Thursday night...before losing its grip on our weather altogether on
Friday as high pressure builds in from the west. Warmer than normal
temperatures are expected at the end of the week, with highs in the
90s Thursday and Friday. High humidity could push heat index values
into the upper 90s in spots...especially on Friday. Clouds
associated with an approaching cold front should keep temperatures
a little cooler on Saturday.
&&

Upton:

  


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main story of the Long Term is Tropical Cyclone Hermine as it
slowly tracks towards, but never quite reaches, Long Island
through midweek, then exits out into the Canadian Maritimes by the
end of the week.

The following impacts are at least possible if not expected:

1) Dangerous Rip Currents are expected from this weekend through
the middle of next week.

2) Moderate to probably major coastal flooding is likely from
Sunday into at least Monday and possibly Tuesday. Significant
beach erosion from high surf is also likely. Refer to the tides
and coastal flooding section of the AFD for details.

3) Sustained Winds to Tropical Storm Force (at least 39 mph) are
possible over mainly southern coastal areas from late Sunday into
Monday morning.

4) Locally heavy rainfall producing localized fresh water flooding
remains a relatively low threat. Refer to the hydrology section of
the AFD for details.

The ECMWF is alone in bringing in measurable precipitation before
12z Sunday...so have basically followed a non-ECMWF blend for
timing/distribution of precipitation. As a result have only chance
pops Sunday, then likely pops from Sunday night into Monday night.
Still have uncertainty on how fast Hermine exits to the east (The
ECMWF for now is a progressive outlier), so linger chance pops
into Wednesday - mainly over eastern zones.

Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest in regards
to Tropical Cyclone Hermine as there is uncertainty.

Deep layered ridging builds in behind Hermine to close the week -
probably in the Thursday-Frida

Trends overnight were for a flattening of the trough which leads to a wider turn. Usually that ends up being wrong. It's not terrible for us though. A very amplified trough would have pulled this into DC. We need a middle of the road solution.

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nycsnow

nycsnow

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, doncat said:

As far as rain is concerned  6z Nam is less than 0.10 from South  jersey to eastern LI and gfs  is maybe up  to  0.50 for extreme  southern  and eastern sections.... rgem is also totally dry thru Monday early am.

Gotta see what 12z does it that trend continues this might be a non impact event. 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The current surge forecast from the NHC of 2-4 would come in just below Irene in 2011 which was 4-5 feet right at high tide.

 

 

And this is way, way below the 9-10 foot surge seen for Sandy from LBI to Sandy Hook to NYC/LI, which is what I've been saying for days, i.e., this storm is not going to be anywhere near as bad as Sandy.  Moderate to major flooding?  Yes.  Catastrophic flooding?  No.  Nobody is getting "destroyed" by this storm (damage yes).  

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think models shift further east today. It's moving fast and ahead of schedule, I don't think it'll slow down until it's much further east. This morning's Nam illustrates that perfectly. 

Wow big shift east on the gfs, I've never seen such a huge shift for a 24 hr forecast. Big win for tropical guidance suite. Effects will be lessoned significantly even for the shoreline. 

Lets see what the models show today before claiming the hurricane models a victory.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

And this is way, way below the 9-10 foot surge seen for Sandy from LBI to Sandy Hook to NYC/LI, which is what I've been saying for days, i.e., this storm is not going to be anywhere near as bad as Sandy.  Moderate to major flooding?  Yes.  Catastrophic flooding?  No.  Nobody is getting "destroyed" by this storm (damage yes).  

If a 3-4 foot surge verified right at high tide, then the water levels would be close to the perfect storm in 1991.

We would need a 4-5 foot surge at high tide to get into the Irene and December 92 water levels.

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