Rjay Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: GFS coming in further SE of the 18z. Still a hit but time to temper expectations. Every model run tonight has looked different from one another. The final solution is not here yet. It's always good to temper expectations though but not bc of one GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Every model run tonight has looked different from one another. The final solution is not here yet. It's always good to temper expectations though but not bc of one GFS run. Its not even further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Wrong... It might be a tick south of the 18z run but it's like 50 miles south of the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: GFS coming in further SE of the 18z. Still a hit but time to temper expectations. If the expectation was a Sandy, that's overblown. If it was for a very severe nor'easter or storm like Irene or maybe Gloria, that might be more reasonable. Sandy is the type of storm that happens once maybe every century even in this global warming era. Sandy's strength itself wasn't even that much a reason for the destruction besides the insane setup-a phasing strong Midwestern trough, blocking high, enormous size and NW track into NJ with a full moon. A decent Sandy analog would be a 1991 Perfect Storm on steroids aimed into NJ at high tide. This is not the same situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, Rjay said: It might be a tick south of the 18z run but it's like 50 miles south of the 12z Euro. Speaking of the Euro is it okay if we post from free sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: Its not even further SE. I'm up to hour 72, using tidbit previous looks for same hour,it's clear south/east. Prove otherwise and I'll gladly agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: Speaking of the Euro is it okay if we post from free sites. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: I'm up to hour 72, using tidbit previous looks for same hour,it's clear south/east. Prove otherwise and I'll gladly agree. Yea, now by this time frame it's SE a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Up to hour 84, south a bit but 1 mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, Rjay said: Yea, now by this time frame it's SE a bit.. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 0z at 84h and 18z at 90h look pretty similar to me in terms of the placement of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Maybe to clarify the last post, Sandy wasn't terrible south of LBI since the center made landfall at Brigantine, and south of there the surge was much less because of NW winds blowing it away. This might be like Sandy or worse south of there. North of there this will be nothing like Sandy. That doesn't mean it won't be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 11 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Yes true but duration of this event would be what 36-60 hrs or so . that's 6 tide cycles . New moon tides are I believe a foot and a half higher then normal . Where I am I believe Sunday the tide will be 7ft 8 inches at high . that's well over a foot of normal high . so add 4 ft to that maybe 5 . you are now 5-6 ft above normal . add waves another 2 ft and I'm being generous . so we are looking at 14 foot high seas . That's on this track if it takes a boost north 30-50 miles for the duration that its going to be . This will be worse then sandy ..... I'm sorry, but you're simply wrong here, especially for anywhere north of about LBI. This will in no way be worse than Sandy for LBI, Seaside, Asbury, Raritan Bay, NYC, or LI - not even close. Predictions are for "moderate to major" for these locations, which is a far cry from Sandy's catastrophic flooding. Re-read my post and the lnks I provided to the surge forecasts. Yes, the flooding will be close to historic from AC on south (but historic does not equal catastrophic there, as they've never seen a Sandy event in recorded history), which was not hit nearly as hard by Sandy, due to the track to the north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Hour 108, takes a step north and east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, Mailman said: 0z at 84h and 18z at 90h look pretty similar to me in terms of the placement of the low. At that time frame the runs are basically in the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 CMC coming in west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Hour 114 even bigger jump north east. This is deft north and east run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jason WX said: CMC coming in west. Pictures/Screenshots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Dec 1992 might be a decent storm to expect for NJ north of where Sandy made landfall. Still a bad event but not devastation like Sandy's. That was a very long lasting storm over multiple high tide cycles. The surge from Sandy was much less from Brigantine on south, so this might match or exceed that. But I don't see anyone receiving an 8-10 foot surge like Sandy delivered. The surge models are nowhere near this-there's an area of 5ft or so from ACY up to around Sandy Hook. Sandy's waves also exceeded 30 feet offshore, which piled onto the surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Pictures/Screenshots? 2 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Pictures/Screenshots? Can't rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I'm sorry, but you're simply wrong here, especially for anywhere north of about LBI. This will in no way be worse than Sandy for LBI, Seaside, Asbury, Raritan Bay, NYC, or LI - not even close. Predictions are for "moderate to major" for these locations, which is a far cry from Sandy's catastrophic flooding. Re-read my post and the lnks I provided to the surge forecasts. Yes, the flooding will be close to historic from AC on south (but historic does not equal catastrophic there, as they've never seen a Sandy event in recorded history), which was not hit nearly as hard by Sandy, due to the track to the north of there. No I understand what you are saying . Sandy was a storm that happens if you're lucky once in a lifetime . what I mean is the duration if you add up time of flooding . How many storms like this have hung around longer then 24 hrs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Sportybx said: No I understand what you are saying . Sandy was a storm that happens if you're lucky once in a lifetime . what I mean is the duration if you add up time of flooding . How many storms like this have hung around longer then 24 hrs . December 1992 and Ash Wednesday 1962 IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Sportybx said: No I understand what you are saying . Sandy was a storm that happens if you're lucky once in a lifetime . what I mean is the duration if you add up time of flooding . How many storms like this have hung around longer then 24 hrs . Agree. Think of how long a 24 hour 'noreaster seems. Now think 3+ days with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 28 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Wrong... It is clearly southeast. I was looking through to hour 72. Not sure what you were referencing. Please don't flat out respond with a "wrong" and an unclear image without even a comparison of the previous run. It's rude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 I'm starting to wonder about this run north Hermine might take late Mon night/Tues AM to east of ACY/south of Montauk, as it's still quite powerful and warm-core. This might be LI's worst turn at flooding if that happens rather than Monday morning for NJ. And despite anything, possibly 5 days of massive waves will decimate the beaches anywhere in this subforum and even New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 ggem looks west of 12z Anyone have a pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 I'm skipping some frame so Forkydoesn't lose his mind. Here's the 0z GGEM for the people who still can't find the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, Rjay said: I'm skipping some frames so Forkydoesn't lose his mind. Here's the 0z GGEM for the people who still can't find the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 0z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 0z Ukie How's Hermine's location compared to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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