forkyfork Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 this is exactly the type of system the nam is going to suck at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 You guys know how I feel about the NAM but here's the 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 4k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Nam is actually moving north into the area at 84 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 How can two versions of the same model be so wildly different? The NAM is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 4k nam Quite impressive on the 4k, maybe the furthest NW at our latitude of any model lately. Does it continue to drift N at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: How can two versions of the same model be so wildly different? The NAM is a joke. It's Friday man. Give it a break. The NAM just picked up an ounce and drank a **** ton of cough syrup. All it wants to do is watch the Leave it to Beaver movie and work on how smile like a real person. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 0z RGEM looks well to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, winterwx21 said: 0z RGEM looks well to the east. Link? It always has been until the retrogading starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Link? It always has been until the retrogading starts The collaboaration.cmc site that shows the 48 hour color loop. At 48 it's way to the east and not retrograding yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam is actually moving north into the area at 84 hours lol I was just going to mention that myself. All NAM jokes aside, it showed Hermine making it into our latitude. Did the NAM show a possible weakness in the northern Atlantic block? Something to think about when the other models come out later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Agreed. Sandy came ashore north of AC and was much larger and more powerful than Hermine is expected to be, even after strengthening some and its NW path was such that areas to its north were on the receiving end of powerful easterly winds as it approached and made landfall and continued inland. That's why areas from LBI to NYC/LI saw storm surges 4-5 feet greater than seen for Irene or any other storm in history, which is why the flooding was catastrophic. I haven't seen any forecasts of surges north of LBI that are like Sandy: have only seen surges to about 9' above the MLLW (mean lower low water level), not the 13.5' above the MLLW seen with Sandy. That's major flooding, similar to what was seen for Irene, (being 3-4' above the mean high water level) to be sure, but not catastrophic. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=njsand For Sandy the winds were not onshore preceding landfall from AC on southward, greatly reducing flooding there, although the flooding was still close to the old records (but way less than what was observed for Sandy to the north). However Hermine will be SSE of AC and Cape May and most of the time during/after the retrograde, should that occur, so they'll get the worst conditions, but nowhere near the conditions areas LBI on north saw for Sandy. Current projected surge in AC brings the water to about 9' above the MLLW, which is similar to what was seen for Sandy and other storms in history. So yes, Hermine will likely be similar to Sandy for areas south of LBI, but that means major flooding, not catastrophic, which is what the NWS in Mt. Holly is predicting for AC/Cape May (major, not catastrophic). http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf Bryan Norcross on TWC just made a great comparison of Sandy and Hermine. Sandy's size and accumulated energy were off the charts with a diameter of 350 miles of hurricane force winds and a diameter of 1000 miles of TS force winds, vs. Hermine, which will likely only have a 400 mile diameter of TS force winds (it is only slated to get to 75 mph, which barely counts as hurricane force). That's why Sandy had such incredible impacts from north of AC to LI Sound, a distance of nearly 150 miles. No way the impact in any area from Hermine should be as bad as the impact from Sandy's impact from its 350 mile diameter hurricane winds and definitely no way the breadth of impact of Hermine will come close to Sandy's. Will there be major flooding that's 4-5' above the mean high tide (or 9' above mean low tide)? Yes, but that's still 4-5' below what was seen for Sandy north of AC and I just have a hard time believing its going to be worse than that. Has anyone seen any surge models showing anything similar to what we saw for Sandy north of AC? If so, please share and I'll gladly stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: The collaboaration.cmc site that shows the 48 hour color loop. At 48 it's way to the east and not retrograding yet. Retrogression started at hour around hour 54 on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: The collaboaration.cmc site that shows the 48 hour color loop. At 48 it's way to the east and not retrograding yet. It's starting to at hr 48. And RGEM/GGEM have both been retrograding late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 11 pm advisory is out from the NHC. Very minor changes in the track, but they did acknowledge the GFS/Euro shift and that the track may need to be updated in future advisories... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/030300.shtml? The new forecast track shows a little more bend back toward the west than the previous track, then it is a little slower to move the system to the east-northeast later in the period. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF both bring the center of Hermine closer to the coast than the current forecast, and if this trend continues it may require some adjustment to the track in later advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Retrogression started at hour around hour 54 on the 18z run. It's definitely east of the 18z run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 11pm advisory also gives NYC and LI 60-70% chance of TS winds. 50+ knots are 10-20% for NYC/N NJ/LHV and 20-30% for LI/S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It's definitely east of the 18z run though. It's starting to get pulled back at hr 48. Either way I don't see a huge difference. We'll see what it does soon enough when it comes out on other sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Bryan Norcross on TWS just made a great comparison of Sandy and Hermine. Sandy's size and accumulated energy were off the charts with a diameter of 350 miles of hurricane force winds and a diameter of 1000 miles of TS force winds, vs. Hermine, which will likely only have a 400 mile diameter of TS force winds (it is only slated to get to 75 mph, which barely counts as hurricane force). That's why Sandy had such incredible impacts from north of AC to LI Sound, a distance of nearly 150 miles. No way the impact in any area from Hermine should be as bad as the impact from Sandy's impact from its 350 mile diameter hurricane winds and definitely no way the breadth of impact of Hermine will come close to Sandy's. Will there be major flooding that's 4-5' above the mean high tide (or 9' above mean low tide)? Yes, but that's still 4-5' below what was seen for Sandy north of AC and I just have a hard time believing its going to be worse than that. Has anyone seen any surge models showing anything similar to what we saw for Sandy north of AC? If so, please share and I'll gladly stand corrected. I've seen surge 4-5 ft above normal for the western LI sound . if I find the link I'll post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Sportybx said: I've seen surge 4-5 ft above normal for the western LI sound . if I find the link I'll post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Sportybx said: I've seen surge 4-5 ft above normal for the western LI sound . if I find the link I'll post it I think you're missing my point. Current forecasts are for surges of 4-5' for much of the NJ coast; Sandy's surge was 9-10'. I'm asking if anyone has seen any surges forecast to be in the Sandy range. The NWS surge page doesn't show any surges beyond 4-5', as far as I can tell. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=&stn= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, Sportybx said: I've seen surge 4-5 ft above normal for the western LI sound . if I find the link I'll post it 4-5 foot surge will cause serious flooding in usual flooding spots, but nothing like Sandy. For reference, in Long Beach where I'm from, the surge was 8 feet in Sandy and the storm tide was 10-11 feet because the surge was at high tide. The surge was higher in NY Harbor. 4-5 feet is more Irene-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Here's the rgem from h48 on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 DT's latest FB post is starting to sound very ominous for Mid-Atlantic and Jersey Shore. He is anticipating a much further westerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 GFS coming in further SE of the 18z. Still a hit but time to temper expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 The GFS stalls about 50-70 miles further south than the Euro. It looks to be due east of Salisbury, Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, jayson said: DT's latest FB post is starting to sound very ominous for Mid-Atlantic and Jersey Shore. He is anticipating a much further westerly track. Please use the vendor thread. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 26 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I think you're missing my point. Current forecasts are for surges of 4-5' for much of the NJ coast; Sandy's surge was 9-10'. I'm asking if anyone has seen any surges forecast to be in the Sandy range. The NWS surge page doesn't show any surges beyond 4-5', as far as I can tell. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=&stn= Yes true but duration of this event would be what 36-60 hrs or so . that's 6 tide cycles . New moon tides are I believe a foot and a half higher then normal . Where I am I believe Sunday the tide will be 7ft 8 inches at high . that's well over a foot of normal high . so add 4 ft to that maybe 5 . you are now 5-6 ft above normal . add waves another 2 ft and I'm being generous . so we are looking at 14 foot high seas . That's on this track if it takes a boost north 30-50 miles for the duration that its going to be . This will be worse then sandy ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: GFS coming in further SE of the 18z. Still a hit but time to temper expectations. Wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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