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Potential Hermine Impacts

Zelocita Weather

By Zelocita Weather,
in New York City Metro

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mimillman

mimillman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Weather channel is starting to talk about this being as bad flooding wise like sandy.. I sure hope not.. I hope everyone in here stays safe.. i look forward to hearing everyone thoughts everyday. You guys are pretty damn good 

I think the flooding will get bad in southern New Jersey and along the Delmarva peninsula, but not so terrible up by New York. The size and strength of this system is not as bad as Sandy, but the south Jersey shore and Delmarva will be battered by upwards of 36 hours of sustained west north westerly tropical storm force winds with some hurricane force gusts mixing down to the surface. Rainfall amounts should be close to 5" from Atlantic City south, and my guess is areas on the immediate shore in Delaware could see up to 10" locally. Beach erosion should be the biggest story by far with sustained tropical storm conditions over such a long period. Although surface sustained winds at JFK hover around 30kt on the 12zGFS txt soundings, stronger winds are not far above..975mb winds sustained around 48kt over a 12 hour period. Gusts will be strong, and I suspect airports will be shut or running on very limited schedules. Even if a plane can take off in 30kt winds, it can't fly directly into 50kt winds just above.

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e46and2

e46and2

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mimillman said:

I think the flooding will get bad in southern New Jersey and along the Delmarva peninsula, but not so terrible up by New York. The size and strength of this system is not as bad as Sandy, but the south Jersey shore and Delmarva will be battered by upwards of 36 hours of sustained west north westerly tropical storm force winds with some hurricane force gusts mixing down to the surface. Rainfall amounts should be close to 5" from Atlantic City south, and my guess is areas on the immediate shore in Delaware could see up to 10" locally. Beach erosion should be the biggest story by far with sustained tropical storm conditions over such a long period. Although surface sustained winds at JFK hover around 30kt on the 12zGFS txt soundings, stronger winds are not far above..975mb winds sustained around 48kt over a 12 hour period. Gusts will be strong, and I suspect airports will be shut or running on very limited schedules. Even if a plane can take off in 30kt winds, it can't fly directly into 50kt winds just above.

westerly winds?  thank god the beaches are saved.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I think the flooding will get bad in southern New Jersey and along the Delmarva peninsula, but not so terrible up by New York. The size and strength of this system is not as bad as Sandy, but the south Jersey shore and Delmarva will be battered by upwards of 36 hours of sustained west north westerly tropical storm force winds with some hurricane force gusts mixing down to the surface. Rainfall amounts should be close to 5" from Atlantic City south, and my guess is areas on the immediate shore in Delaware could see up to 10" locally. Beach erosion should be the biggest story by far with sustained tropical storm conditions over such a long period. Although surface sustained winds at JFK hover around 30kt on the 12zGFS txt soundings, stronger winds are not far above..975mb winds sustained around 48kt over a 12 hour period. Gusts will be strong, and I suspect airports will be shut or running on very limited schedules. Even if a plane can take off in 30kt winds, it can't fly directly into 50kt winds just above.

 

JFK can operate okay on strong NE winds, LGA generally cannot as much.  Its mostly due to runway configuration.  And if winds go E or ESE JFK and LGA both have trouble.  I don't see it being a mass cancel situation as of now though.   International flights will probably be okay with some domestic cancels.  They luck out a bit with the holiday falling Monday so there is likely a lighter flying schedule Sunday than usual and even Monday.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Yes, I believe winds two to three times their normal level in the shallower part of the column will have an effect on air safety. You don't think so?

 

On takeoff not so much, on landing it can be really rough, especially if there is directional shear.  I did not look at soundings, but a storm like this would most likely have mainly speed shear in the bottom 5,000 feet and not much directional.  JFK and LGA's worst setups occur in winter or fall when warm fronts stall over CNJ or SNJ ahead of cutting lows.  NE winds often hang on in the low levels while the wind at 5,000 feet is screaming out of the S or SSE.  There tend to be numerous severe turbulence encounters and sometimes missed approaches during these events.

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mimillman

mimillman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

On takeoff not so much, on landing it can be really rough, especially if there is directional shear.  I did not look at soundings, but a storm like this would most likely have mainly speed shear in the bottom 5,000 feet and not much directional.  JFK and LGA's worst setups occur in winter or fall when warm fronts stall over CNJ or SNJ ahead of cutting lows.  NE winds often hang on in the low levels while the wind at 5,000 feet is screaming out of the S or SSE.  There tend to be numerous severe turbulence encounters and sometimes missed approaches during these events.

Thanks for the input! I wonder how any possible delayed landings will affect take off times. I just took a look at the column and it appears winds stay ENE all the way up to 400mb.

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RU4Real

RU4Real

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Yes, I believe winds two to three times their normal level in the shallower part of the column will have an effect on air safety. You don't think so?

The only thing that matters are the absolute numbers with respect to IAS (Indicated Airspeed).

Most commercial jets takeoff at about 150 - 180 mph. They will accelerate very quickly to the 250 mph limit for operations below 10,000'. Flying into a 50 mph headwind will lower their ground speed, but does not affect the ability of the aircraft to operate at all.

Weather affects aircraft departure in 3 ways - the ability of the aircraft to actually takeoff and climb, within its safe operating parameters; the ability of the aircraft to return and land at the same airport in the event of a departure emergency; the ability for emergency services to safely operate in the event of a serious event (this last is the reason why commercial aircraft don't operate in near- or zero visibility in spite of the theoretical ability to do so given precision navaids and automation).

Regional turboprop aircraft will cease operations well before conditions meet those you describe, because they operate at much lower speeds.

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Blizzard-on-GFS

Blizzard-on-GFS

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Yes

 

16 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

What do you mean by swoosh? Is that more crippling for Jersey shore

GFDL says swoooosh! :o

image.png

 

I meant to say sploosh lol. And yes. I have a house down LBI and I think it's going to be pretty epic down here. I was away for Sandy. I would like to stay to witness this. If it gets to hairy though I'm gonna have to evacuate though. It's scary how little people are talking about this; especially considering its LDW.

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rogue

rogue

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

 

GFDL says swoooosh! :o

image.png

 

I meant to say sploosh lol. And yes. I have a house down LBI and I think it's going to be pretty epic down here. I was away for Sandy. I would like to stay to witness this. If it gets to hairy though I'm gonna have to evacuate though. It's scary how little people are talking about this; especially considering its LDW.

Was talking to a neighbor of mine this afternoon here in northern NJ who also has a house and boat on LBI. When I asked him if he was making plans to protect his property he had absolutely no clue. "What storm?" is what he said.

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mimillman said:

I think the flooding will get bad in southern New Jersey and along the Delmarva peninsula, but not so terrible up by New York. The size and strength of this system is not as bad as Sandy, but the south Jersey shore and Delmarva will be battered by upwards of 36 hours of sustained west north westerly tropical storm force winds with some hurricane force gusts mixing down to the surface. Rainfall amounts should be close to 5" from Atlantic City south, and my guess is areas on the immediate shore in Delaware could see up to 10" locally. Beach erosion should be the biggest story by far with sustained tropical storm conditions over such a long period. 

Agreed. Sandy came ashore north of AC and was much larger and more powerful than Hermine is expected to be, even after strengthening some and its NW path was such that areas to its north were on the receiving end of powerful easterly winds as it approached and made landfall and continued inland.  That's why areas from LBI to NYC/LI saw storm surges 4-5 feet greater than seen for Irene or any other storm in history, which is why the flooding was catastrophic.  I haven't seen any forecasts of surges north of LBI that are like Sandy: have only seen surges to about 9' above the MLLW (mean lower low water level), not the 13.5' above the MLLW seen with Sandy.  That's major flooding, similar to what was seen for Irene, (being 3-4' above the mean high water level) to be sure, but not catastrophic.  

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=njsand

For Sandy the winds were not onshore preceding landfall from AC on southward, greatly reducing flooding there, although the flooding was still close to the old records (but way less than what was observed for Sandy to the north).  However Hermine will be SSE of AC and Cape May and most of the time during/after the retrograde, should that occur, so they'll get the worst conditions, but nowhere near the conditions areas LBI on north saw for Sandy. Current projected surge in AC brings the water to about 9' above the MLLW, which is similar to what was seen for Sandy and other storms in history.  So yes, Hermine will likely be similar to Sandy for areas south of LBI, but that means major flooding, not catastrophic, which is what the NWS in Mt. Holly is predicting for AC/Cape May (major, not catastrophic).  

http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

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Animal

Animal

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Agreed. Sandy came ashore north of AC and was much larger and more powerful than Hermine is expected to be, even after strengthening some and its NW path was such that areas to its north were on the receiving end of powerful easterly winds as it approached and made landfall and continued inland.  That's why areas from LBI to NYC/LI saw storm surges 4-5 feet greater than seen for Irene or any other storm in history, which is why the flooding was catastrophic.  I haven't seen any forecasts of surges north of LBI that are like Sandy: have only seen surges to about 9' above the MLLW (mean lower low water level), not the 13.5' above the MLLW seen with Sandy.  That's major flooding, similar to what was seen for Irene, (being 3-4' above the mean high water level) to be sure, but not catastrophic.  

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=njsand

For Sandy the winds were not onshore preceding landfall from AC on southward, greatly reducing flooding there, although the flooding was still close to the old records (but way less than what was observed for Sandy to the north).  However Hermine will be SSE of AC and Cape May and most of the time during/after the retrograde, should that occur, so they'll get the worst conditions, but nowhere near the conditions areas LBI on north saw for Sandy. Current projected surge in AC brings the water to about 9' above the MLLW, which is similar to what was seen for Sandy and other storms in history.  So yes, Hermine will likely be similar to Sandy for areas south of LBI, but that means major flooding, not catastrophic, which is what the NWS in Mt. Holly is predicting for AC/Cape May (major, not catastrophic).  

http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

Lot's of noise. You get storms on the coast with flooding and wind every other year. Some people are hyping this storm a little too much. Get sand bags if you live in an area that floods, move your car inland, check on the elderly, have batteries in flashlights.

 

 

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