NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 If she's not back over water yet, she's moving over what are basically wet lands currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 NAM is significantly stronger with QPF at 24 hours...compared to 12z run. same exact position so far though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Quite a few sub 985mb SLP in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: NAM is significantly stronger with QPF at 24 hours...compared to 12z run. same exact position so far though. Well, the NAM hasn't had its Mother of God run yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 slightly more East at 30 hours. but QPF heavier and holds same position. High pressure to the north-east is 1 mb weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: slightly more East at 30 hours. but QPF heavier and holds same position. High pressure to the north-east is 1 mb weaker. precipitation field doesn't make sense. If the low is further east then the precipitation shield would not be hugging the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Metsfan said: precipitation field doesn't make sense. If the low is further east then the precipitation shield would not be hugging the coast. yea, i'm thinking the newer run is recognizing it's tropical nature better, and more cylindrical with QPF. especially on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 NWS Upton forecast for Farmingdale, NY. Sunday Tropical storm conditions possible. A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Northeast wind 19 to 24 mph. Sunday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Labor Day Tropical storm conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Monday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Tuesday Tropical storm conditions possible. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Tuesday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 18z NAM is weaker in strength, hence why in future frames it will start to curl towards that coastline( storm being steered by llv easterly winds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Looks like the NAM is going to make a wide turn back towards the coast just like all of the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 It's a little faster this run . And about 50 miles more east at 39 hours. It could turn back as NJWx mentioned though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: NWS service forecast for Farmingdale, NY. Sunday Tropical storm conditions possible. A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Northeast wind 19 to 24 mph. Sunday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Labor Day Tropical storm conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Monday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Tuesday Tropical storm conditions possible. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Tuesday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Vague forecast much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Metsfan said: Vague forecast much? Yes pretty much all of NYC area has that forecast... 3 days of potential Tropical Storm conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: It's a little faster this run . And about 50 miles more east at 39 hours. It could turn back as NJWx mentioned though. Look at the mid-levels. The winds explode back towards the coast. I really don't care what the NAM is showing verbatim precip wise, follow the jet max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 She starts retrograding back towards the coast Sunday night. The differences in positioning between this run and 12z are less than 50 miles. In meteorology we call that "noise" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 90kt winds at 925mb just offshore. 40-45kts over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 90kt winds at 925mb just offshore. 40-45kts over the city. What hour are you at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I will say it again, the very compact precip field doesn't make all that much sense to me. Especially since once it weakens again, it will start to unravel like we're seeing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Impressive wave action on top of the surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 It is actually further west. Only like a touch actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 NAM has some serious wind. Most of the rain stays South. Not really worth much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Wow between 57-63 hr. It basically just sits there and deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, WeatherFan202 said: It is actually further west. Only like a touch actually... once it started retrograding, yea. Since the high to the NE is slightly stronger at 60 hours. during the first 36 , it was about 40 miles more eastward though. status quo for the most part. Another impressive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Still basically in the same spot at hr 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Okay last time ill mention this but this is just crazy. Comparison between hr57 and hr72. Basically hasn't moved at all. Edit: I can only imagine the beach erosion if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Nam is also closer to the coast. Looks like the euro in that regards. Also winds are stronger on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 TS warnings for NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The NAM solution is bad in it's own way, it stalls over water, maintains its strenght and drives water into NJ. Euro at least moves onshore and then out quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The new NHC track now shows the bend back towards the coast... Hard to tell how far they think it will retrograde back because the next position a day later is only slightly NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Tropical storm warnings for all of nj coast now. Ugh i leave for Maine tomorrow going to miss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.