the ghost of leroy Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 da fuq is the french model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 51 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Keep in mind we have other models that would be bad but not like the Euro. If Hermine stays a good bit offshore the winds would largely be NE so the surge threat wouldn't be so bad. And the 60-70+ mph wind would be largely offshore. NE winds for that duration would be very bad for the Western LI sound. It's not only about ocean locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 13 minutes ago, Morris said: Pretty much all are east of the Euro. They have been the whole time. Way too far east of the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, cmasty1978 said: da fuq is the french model I believe someone mentioned that it was inspired by the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: True. To be fair, most of the LI barrier beaches are state, county, or national parks with little to no development. Luckily the north shore has enough elevation that only the marinas and immediate shoreline locations will be impacted. I will be taking a drive down to Halesite in Huntington Monday morning, area usually floods in these setups. Long Beach still floods during nor'easters in some places and will definitely flood again this time. It's unbelievable that repairs and demolitions after Sandy still aren't completed. There's a plan to protect the bay side of the island but it hasn't been started yet, and the beach still hasn't been reinforced by the Army Corps. There are other places down there that will flood, like Freeport, Oceanside and Island Park, and they're all heavily populated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, jm1220 said: Long Beach still floods during nor'easters in some places and will definitely flood again this time. It's unbelievable that repairs and demolitions after Sandy still aren't completed. There's a plan to protect the bay side of the island but it hasn't been started yet, and the beach still hasn't been reinforced by the Army Corps. There are other places down there that will flood, like Freeport, Oceanside and Island Park, and they're all heavily populated. true, but the NE wind will limit the flooding there, those canals run N to S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Welp, just got put on standby for work Sunday night. Our mets must be seeing something. For the people who are saying no one is taking this seriously, I must have answered 100 people's questions this morning worrying about this-granted, those that are from the area are more concerned than vacationers, but locals have become very storm-savvy. I even talked to a woman who knew about transitioning into extra-tropical low pressure and how that doesn't mean it's going to be less of an impact. That's a HUGE step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 9 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: da fuq is the french model They also have a German model now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: They also have a German model now. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: ^^ Nice find. We'll see how it is compared to Dr. no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: true, but the NE wind will limit the flooding there, those canals run N to S. If the Euro's right, the wind might pivot to easterly, which is very bad for that area. The fetch and wave action will also pile water into the bays. But you're right, the wind staying NE would be crucial for the area not seeing massive flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: How reliable is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 What do folks think for Rockaway Beach? I canceled a 3 night airbnb reservation we had a block from the beach and have to file an "extenuating circumstances" appeal, which I feel is justified based on Sunday on beach closure and the current NWS statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, hooralph said: What do folks think for Rockaway Beach? I canceled a 3 night airbnb reservation we had a block from the beach and have to file an "extenuating circumstances" appeal, which I feel is justified based on Sunday on beach closure and the current NWS statements. Sounds like a good call on your part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, hooralph said: What do folks think for Rockaway Beach? I canceled a 3 night airbnb reservation we had a block from the beach and have to file an "extenuating circumstances" appeal, which I feel is justified based on Sunday on beach closure and the current NWS statements. The beach is going to get pounded and there will be a lot of erosion, and there may be flooding at high tides. I doubt De Blasio would ask for mandatory evacuations but there may be voluntary ones. The area got annihilated during Sandy and took some flooding from Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If the Euro's right, the wind might pivot to easterly, which is very bad for that area. The fetch and wave action will also pile water into the bays. But you're right, the wind staying NE would be crucial for the area not seeing massive flooding. It's also good for wind damage. Wind damage here is way less likely on NE or ENE winds than SE. In Sandy both Rjay and I were getting 80nph gusts if I remember right from the NE during the early afternoon but little tree damage started til winds shifted SE and they still were topping out 60-80 but roots by nature in this region are most accustomed to strong winds from the NW or NE and not SW or SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 the eye looks like it's partially over water already. (Columbia, SC radar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It's also good for wind damage. Wind damage here is way less likely on NE or ENE winds than SE. In Sandy both Rjay and I were getting 80nph gusts if I remember right from the NE during the early afternoon but little tree damage started til winds shifted SE and they still were topping out 60-80 but roots by nature in this region are most accustomed to strong winds from the NW or NE and not SW or SE The highest gusts in Long Beach were around 85mph right around when Sandy made landfall in Atlantic City. I remember gusts over 60 mph from the NE but the worst was when the winds pivoted. At that point it was pretty irrelevant there as they were devastated by surge. Some roofs had serious damage-one roof of an apartment building was ripped up near the beach. And of course the vast majority of trees were either blown down or were killed by saltwater. Sandy's scars are definitely still apparent there, some houses haven't even been touched yet and have to be torn down still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It's also good for wind damage. Wind damage here is way less likely on NE or ENE winds than SE. In Sandy both Rjay and I were getting 80nph gusts if I remember right from the NE during the early afternoon but little tree damage started til winds shifted SE and they still were topping out 60-80 but roots by nature in this region are most accustomed to strong winds from the NW or NE and not SW or SE correct, but we had little foliage going into Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: In my opinion the push of water will be even greater because of the long duration. Integrated Kinetic Energy or the 'IKE'' of a storm is basically a calculation of the destruction a storm's surge can have by calculating the amount of water put into motion. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php Sandy had the second greatest IKE ever calculated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It's also good for wind damage. Wind damage here is way less likely on NE or ENE winds than SE. In Sandy both Rjay and I were getting 80nph gusts if I remember right from the NE during the early afternoon but little tree damage started til winds shifted SE and they still were topping out 60-80 but roots by nature in this region are most accustomed to strong winds from the NW or NE and not SW or SE You remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: correct, but we had little foliage going into Sandy That is a good point. I got through Bob relatively rell though in central-eastern Suffolk in 1991 with NNE-NE winds gusting to 60-80 or so at times, some trees were down but not very many. I don't even want to know how bad it would have been with a southeast wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 current location. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Well, 12z EPS mean looks like the OP almost to a T. Tucked in less than 50 miles from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That is a good point. I got through Bob relatively rell though in central-eastern Suffolk in 1991 with NNE-NE winds gusting to 60-80 or so at times, some trees were down but not very many. I don't even want to know how bad it would have been with a southeast wind Out by JFK and the south shore of Queens, once we had the wind shift to the SSE is when we saw transformers begin to explode and the surge from Jamaica Bay overwhelm the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 EPS mean is also wetter than the OP and much less progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It's also good for wind damage. Wind damage here is way less likely on NE or ENE winds than SE. In Sandy both Rjay and I were getting 80nph gusts if I remember right from the NE during the early afternoon but little tree damage started til winds shifted SE and they still were topping out 60-80 but roots by nature in this region are most accustomed to strong winds from the NW or NE and not SW or SE The wind damage here with NE-ENE winds took down numerous trees/wire lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: EPS mean is also wetter than the OP and much less progressive. Hopefully more of the rain gets up here than progged. Nothing serious but I would prefer this not just be a gusty, showery event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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