Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 hr 63 early monday morning stalled just easy of acy. coast taking a beating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, ag3 said: Largest tide rises I see are for the Western LI sound, in where Sandy mostly spared, due to it coinciding with low tide. Hermine looks like it's coming right at the high tide and the 2:50am high tide in the western LI sound could be major trouble. This is exactly where I am located . I'm about three blocks from the throgs neck . we got hit hard during sandy flooding but nothing crazy . My gut feeling is this time around we might be getting it a lot worse .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Close to 40MPH sustained into NYC Sunday night. A few patches of 65-75MPH showing up right along the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 hr 66 makes landfall in cape may county nj then drifts south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 hideous run for the NJ coast and also western LI sound (damage wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 SNJ absolutely destroyed Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Wow. The Euro is ugly even into SE NY. If true there will be trees down and power outages galore across the entire NYC metro area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: SNJ absolutely destroyed Sunday night. 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: SNJ absolutely destroyed Sunday night. yep. also over 4 inches of rain for central and southern nj. horrible run for that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 If the Euro is correct, sustained 70MPH winds over Cape May County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Allsnow said: yep. also over 4 inches of rain for central and southern nj. horrible run for that area Take a look at the high res 10m winds hour 57-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 the dude that provided the surge cam for that amazing video last night in cedar key...is headin up to Jersey to storm track. http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 And it stalls out once again down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Need the Euro solution to come another 50-75 miles further North. I don't think that's going to happen at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: SNJ absolutely destroyed Sunday night. "Destroyed" implies a cat 5 hurricane where there would be pretty much nothing left. This would cause a lot of damage, but it's not as if it would wipe south Jersey off the map. Saying "destroyed" is going way too far. Most places recover from cat 1 hurricane type winds just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I don't know how well these shore areas are doing post Sandy but this would be a devastating blow for already vulnerable areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The Euro deepens Hermine again on Monday. 995mb stalled near 39N/72W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: Need the Euro solution to come another 50-75 miles further North. I don't think that's going to happen at this point. 50 miles is not out of the realm 48 hr out. Even as is, the NYC area gets hit by squalls and a day of high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Take a look at the high res 10m winds hour 57-60. 00z sunday secondary max of winds north of the center into LI/NYC around 50-60knots that will pile up some serious water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Cat 1 into SNJ. The barrier island and every shore line will take a beating with the duration. 50 to 70 mph sustained winds coming in from the East and ENE will drive a 5 plus foot storm surge into the coast. Then add hugh tide, with wave on top of that. Where are my 2 favorite posters who said , no hurricane and no rain for NYC and NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, winterwx21 said: "Destroyed" implies a cat 5 hurricane where there would be pretty much nothing left. This would cause a lot of damage, but it's not as if it would wipe south Jersey off the map. Saying "destroyed" is going way too far. Most places recover from cat 1 hurricane type winds just fine. The Euro has a panel showing sustained E winds of 70+MPH with higher gusts coming straight into Cape May County and then rotating South into the DE Bay as the center makes landfall near there. That area isn't capable of handling that type of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Need the Euro solution to come another 50-75 miles further North. I don't think that's going to happen at this point. Another day tomorrow so it's possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 the worst of the weather for the metro area would be sunday evening into monday morning. Winds 50-70 knots and driving rain. this is if the euro is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The Euro has a band of Hurricane force winds over the entire area on Sunday night at 925mb. It's just a matter of getting some decent convection to mix down the stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Getting pulled in this close to the coast would up the ante for wind and surge potential should this solution verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro has a panel showing sustained E winds of 70+MPH with higher gusts coming straight into Cape May County and then rotating South into the DE Bay as the center makes landfall near there. That area isn't capable of handling that type of wind. It would be very bad and a lot of damage, but "destroyed" implies that it would be complete ruins like after a cat 4-5 hurricane. That is not going to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I'm starting to get more concerned for the LI shore areas (NJ is another story, they're in for a massive pounding). The trends west today are a little alarming. If the Euro's right and the low heads into S NJ, the winds will turn to E or even ESE, which would drive the surge into NY Harbor again. And the new moon doesn't help things at all. Areas that usually flood in coastal flood events should really start getting concerned. And small nudges in the track can make a difference, particularly in the NYC area which would be much worse off with an east wind than a NE wind. The warm water is also very concerning-I can buy it ramping back up to 75-85 mph east of the Delmarva, which would kick the waves up and surge even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I wonder what these well above normal SSTs will do to Hermine. She won't be fully tropical so she doesn't need gulf like temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: It would be very bad and a lot of damage, but "destroyed" implies that it would be complete ruins like after a cat 4-5 hurricane. That is not going to be the case. Was Sandy a cat 4 or 5? What would you consider that level of damage to be? I actually went down to Seaside the day after the storm and helped rescue people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Getting pulled in this close to the coast would up the ante for wind and surge potential should this solution verify. Keep in mind that's in knots. Conversion to MPH is even higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Was Sandy a cat 4 or 5? What would you consider that level of damage to be? I actually went down to Seaside the day after the storm and helped rescue people. It was horrible damage, but not destroyed. Destroyed is what south Florida looked like after hurricane Andrew. But I guess it's just a matter of opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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