SnoSki14 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I'm wondering if the storm keeps getting shoved further west even if it ends up being a tad further east to start. That blocking high that'll be to our NE is no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 These are sustained 10m winds in kmph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The longer loop back towards the coast is pretty brutal for the shore areas. It would be better for it to just stall well southeast of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: These are sustained 10m winds in kmph WOW some serious winds not far off the coast per the UKMET... Is this the closest it gets with strongest winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: These are sustained 10m winds in kmph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 OPC Update. HE 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WITH HERMINE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THESE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT HERMINE COULD AGAIN ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT THAT TIME. THIS SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING IS NOT UNREASONABLE AS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE THE GULF STREAM WHERE SST ANOMALIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF +3 TO +5 C AND WITH THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINICITY OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM. SO HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT WINDS MAY BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR TODAYS MODEL TREND. THE 00Z/06Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM ARE BOTH WELL INITIALIZD WITH OFFSHORE/COASTAL WAVE HEIGHTS THIS MORNING. .EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...WITH ALL OF THE 00Z MODELS FCSTG HERMINE TO SLOW AND NEARLY STALL OFF THE NRN MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS SUN INTO TUE...THERE IS A HIGH LIKLIHOOD THAT A SIGNIFICANT SURGE EVENT WILL DEVELOP. WULD CONT TO FAVOR THE HIGHER SURGE VALUES FCST BY THE 00Z ESTOFS VS THE 00Z ETSS THEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 12z HWRF is way WEST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 HWRF bombs this out too. Down to 983mb 15z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The HWRF is showing Hermine maxing out with surface winds of 72.9MPH just offshore on Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Decent rains here on the HWRF too as the system begins to unravel and stalls Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/sc/charleston/clx/?region=clt Looks as if Hermine will head NE offshore somewhere around Charleston. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Watch the transformation on the HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Watch the transformation on the HWRF Forecast Hour 60 is INSANE.... Huge expansion, has to be Extra Tropical at that point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 10 minutes ago, UnionWX said: https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/sc/charleston/clx/?region=clt Looks as if Hermine will head NE offshore somewhere around Charleston. Thoughts? Looks like it to my uneducated eye. Certainly wouldn't hurt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 NWS OKX: * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE - PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION: THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 FEETABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE WITHIN SURGE PRONE AREAS - WINDOW OF CONCERN: BEGINS SATURDAY EVENING - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: HIGH - EMERGENCY PLANS SHOULD INCLUDE A REASONABLE THREAT FOR MAJOR STORM SURGE FLOODING OF GREATER THAN 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 We are expecting a January blizzard type coastal flood event at the shore. Ocean city and those areas were obviously hit much harder than Monmouth County. I must say after speaking with a lot of officials all morning the consensus is they're very concerned about the warm water. We've been harping on that most of the month of August how rediculously warm the ocean has been. There is still room for issuing evacuations. Right now we are urging tourists to goto their vacationing towns local website and sign up for emergency alerts and watch local media (hopefully news 12). Thats all you can really do until we get a better handle on what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Largest tide rises I see are for the Western LI sound, in where Sandy mostly spared, due to it coinciding with low tide. Hermine looks like it's coming right at the high tide and the 2:50am high tide in the western LI sound could be major trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The Euro is a good deal West of the 00z run through 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 euro has rain saturday for area south of ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I'm fascinated by how this is going to look like on radar, while over the atlantic...going from Tropical, to Post-Tropical , back to Tropical.. will the radar blossom near the center , and stay near the center...or be spread out again. should be fun to watch. The deepening and overall watching whats going on at different levels of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 12z sunday morning huge rain shield just off the coast of nj. 250 miles east of the delmarva . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Way West on Sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 hr 51 1000mb still about 250 west of the delmarva. heavy rain just off the coast of nj. steady rain for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The Euro is 100 miles NW at 18z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 moving west towards the coast at hr 54. heavy rain into snj 998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Stalled and deepening East of ACY on Sunday night. Heavy rain confined to Central and Southern NJ. Winds ripping along the coast. 40-60MPH sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 wow sub 990 mb low sitting about 100 miles east of acy sunday night. disaster run for the shore areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Rain overspreading the whole area Sunday night. Down to 985mb at 00z Monday. 50 miles SSE of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Way north and west This might make landfall in SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Several nice bands rotate in right off the Ocean into SE NY and NYC, NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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