Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I only see a 991 Mb low on the GFS. (not 967) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Looks like the GFS is about 50 miles too far east with the low at hour 6. At least according to mesoanalysis/RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 the last two run of the gfs has come back west a bit and peak wind gusts would be overnight sunday over the inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Reminding me a little of Felix 1995. Although that storm stayed tropical and did its 'loop' much further offshore. That storm really tore up the beaches around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I only see a 991 Mb low (not 967) Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The 6z most recent update of the surge model is now showing the potential for a 5 foot surge due to the long duration nature of this event pilling up the water on the coast. http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=ESTOFS&area=NE&plot=srg&loop=1#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Fact is there are lots of lurkers and others who really don't know. This entire board was founded on being educational as well as a place to discuss, snarky Mods aside. As depicted a stalling deep tightly wound system transitioning state into to a more broad wind field extratropical storm which then consolidates into a warm core, basically a storm within a storm is very bad news for the NJ Delmarva coasts. Persistent tide cycles of ENE/NE winds will pile water as well as erode constantly due to the longshore drift. Extratropical surge models can be found here for particular locations. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-96&type=&stn= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Here is the banter thread. Use it please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Here That's the French model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: That's the French model? Haha yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Fact is there are lots of lurkers and others who really don't know. This entire board was founded on being educational as well as a place to discuss, snarky Mods aside. As depicted a stalling deep tightly wound system transitioning state into to a more broad wind field extratropical storm which then consolidates into a warm core, basically a storm within a storm is very bad news for the NJ Delmarva coasts. Persistent tide cycles of ENE/NE winds will pile water as well as erode constantly due to the longshore drift. Extratropical surge models can be found here for particular locations. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-96&type=&stn= Luckily Astronomical tides are falling every day which is a huge break considering if this had come in the 15th to the 19th we would be looking at near Sandy levels of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Haha yeah. Just took a look, the surface winds look pretty crazy but the rain stays just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Here is the banter thread. Use it please. Hope you don't mind but I created a storm specific banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 A 5' storm surge is nothing to sneeze at: People always forget/don't think that storm surge means a rise in sea level. Waves are on top of that (not necessarily people here that forget that, but in general) Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 look at the models yourselves. this is a place where people know a bit more about the wx than the average person, correct?http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.htmlYou're giving most of us too much credit. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Are the models possibly overrepresenting the length of the stall? We have had multiple events in the recent past where a storm was projected to stall for an extended period of time, only to be more progressive than predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Oye: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=5928973 Quote MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIMES OFHIGH TIDE FROM LATE SATURDAY ONWARD. SOME LOCALIZED MAJOR COASTALFLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE BACK BAYS WHERE WATERACCUMULATES WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THECOASTAL FLOODING WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OFTHE STORM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.SOME AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY MAYRECEIVE 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, WHICH COULD LEAD TOFLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, WaPo said: Are the models possibly overrepresenting the length of the stall? We have had multiple events in the recent past where a storm was projected to stall for an extended period of time, only to be more progressive than predicted. NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Beaches closed on Sunday and Monday NWS says NYC beaches will have worst rip tides in over 20 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 12z Ukie west of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 CmC is pretty far southeast with hermine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 12z Ukie west of 0z That looks WAY west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 UKMET is way West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: CmC is pretty far southeast with hermine starts tracking back west monday morning outer bands bring rain to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: CmC is pretty far southeast with hermine It tucks right into the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Allsnow said: starts tracking back west monday morning outer bands bring rain to the coast how strong? I can't get it to load on Tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The Canadian retrogrades the system almost 100 miles West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Brian5671 said: how strong? I can't get it to load on Tropical tidbits 984mb at the lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It tucks right into the coast On stormvista it does a loop back towards the coast sunday night after being pretty far se into the atlantic. im out to hr 81 and its not tucked yet into the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Allsnow said: On stormvista it does a loop back towards the goes sunday night after being pretty far se into the atlantic. im out to hr 81 and its not tucked yet into the coast I was just mentioning that it retrogrades way West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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