Potential Hermine Impacts

[BxEngine]

Just now, Rjay said:

While I agree this isn't Sandy I disagree that this is like any of major noreaster.  This storm looks like it's going to sit off the Delaware coast for days and pile the water into the shoreline for many many high tide cycles.  I'm expecting severe coastal flooding as of now and winds strong enough to knock out power along the coast.  I think at the very least coastal residents on the Jersey Shore should think about evacuations.

this is how you disagree with a statement and provide reasoning. Anything else will be deleted.

[NJwx85]

Those barrier islands flood all the time during Winter noreasters.

Big difference is those islands are mostly empty during the Winter.

And this will be stalled off the coast for days, so the water won't be able to recede.

Those downplaying the effects at the coast are just plain dumb. 

 

[nycwinter]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

While I agree this isn't Sandy I disagree that this is like any of major noreaster.  This storm looks like it's going to sit off the Delaware coast for days and pile the water into the shoreline for many many high tide cycles.  I'm expecting severe coastal flooding as of now and winds strong enough to knock out power along the coast.  I think at the very least coastal residents on the Jersey Shore should think about evacuations.

remember the dec 1992 northeaster it sat for days bringing major coastal flooding

[NJwx85]

When you factor in the fact that it's Labor Day weekend, I would pull the trigger on evacs today.

If those islands flood you're going to have thousands of vacationers trapped on those islands for potentially days depending on how much the water can recede at low tide. 

[Juliancolton]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Those barrier islands flood all the time during Winter noreasters.

Big difference is those islands are mostly empty during the Winter.

And this will be stalled off the coast for days, so the water won't be able to recede.

Those downplaying the effects at the coast are just plain dumb. 

 

A 5' storm surge is nothing to sneeze at:

 

[Neblizzard]

Hour 54 the 12z GFS is well east, waiting for later panels to see if she starts to retrograde.  No rain on the NJ coast as of 18z Sunday.

[MJO812]

Just now, Neblizzard said:

Hour 54 the 12z GFS is well east, waiting for later panels to see if she starts to retrograde.  No rain on the NJ coast as of 18z Sunday.

It's not well east

[Metsfan]

12z gfs looks identical to 6z at hour 60. Maybe a hair s and e of 6z

[NJwx85]

The 12z GFS is West of 06z. 

[Jason WX]

hr 66 is identical.

[NJwx85]

Guys please refrain from giving model PBP if you don't know what you're looking at. It confuses people and then we all look dumb.

[Metsfan]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GFS is West of 06z. 

Yup hour 66(12z) is west of (6z) at hour 72

[Neblizzard]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's not well east

Definutely east of the NAM.   Still early.  

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

Hour 54 the 12z GFS is well east, waiting for later panels to see if she starts to retrograde.  No rain on the NJ coast as of 18z Sunday.

 

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

It's not well east

 

Just now, Metsfan said:

12z gfs looks identical to 6z at hour 60. Maybe a hair s and e of 6z

 

Just now, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GFS is West of 06z. 

LOL! 

[MJO812]

Gaining strength and coming west at 72 hours

[NJwx85]

By Monday morning the GFS is about 50 miles West of 06z. The banding ends up brushing the coast instead of staying offshore. 

[friedmators]

3 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Hour 54 the 12z GFS is well east, waiting for later panels to see if she starts to retrograde.  No rain on the NJ coast as of 18z Sunday.

identical to 6Z @ 66

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

remember the dec 1992 northeaster it sat for days bringing major coastal flooding

I meant to say I don't think this is your typical strong nor'easter.   Plus many of the models show this hanging onto or regaining tropical characteristics which is also what might save us from a really expansive wind shield.  Regardless this should be a damaging storm for our coastline.

[Neblizzard]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

By Monday morning the GFS is about 50 miles West of 06z. The banding ends up brushing the coast instead of staying offshore. 

Yup now she's starting to pull in.  This forecast is going to be a nightmare. 

[NJwx85]

The GFS has a band of 10m winds of 70-75mph that sits roughly 50 miles SE of ACY. The rest of the coast is solidly into the 35-50MPH range.

[Jason WX]

It doesn't even move. 72-78

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

Yup now she's starting to pull in.  This forecast is going to be a nightmare. 

Another day of models today and tomorrow

[nycwinter]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

The GFS has a band of 10m winds of 70-75mph that sits roughly 50 miles SE of ACY. The rest of the coast is solidly into the 35-50MPH range.

are those sustained winds or in gusts?

[NJwx85]

Just now, nycwinter said:

are those sustained winds or in gusts?

Sustained.

[RU848789]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

While I agree this isn't Sandy, I disagree that this is like any of major noreaster.  This storm looks like it's going to sit off the Delaware coast for days and pile the water into the shoreline for many many high tide cycles.  I'm expecting severe coastal flooding as of now and winds strong enough to knock out power along the coast.  I think at the very least coastal residents on the Jersey Shore should think about evacuations.

I meant the rain/wind would be like any other nor'easter.  The coastal flooding will likely be significant to major (to me the words are pretty similar) with the storm stalling for a couple of days, but that doesn't mean one evacuates entire islands, IMO.  Areas that didn't flood for Irene or the '92 nor'easter are unlikely to flood for this storm and this storm is not going to have flooding anywhere near what we saw for Sandy, which was 5-6 feet more than any other storm in recorded history, iirc.  My point isn't that there won't be major flooding - it's that it won't be catastrophic (like Sandy), meaning mandatory evacuations are unnecessary.  

[Stormlover74]

Just now, RU848789 said:

I meant the rain/wind would be like any other nor'easter.  The coastal flooding will likely be significant to major (to me the words are pretty similar) with the storm stalling for a couple of days, but that doesn't mean one evacuates entire islands, IMO.  Areas that didn't flood for Irene or the '92 nor'easter are unlikely to flood for this storm and this storm is not going to have flooding anywhere near what we saw for Sandy, which was 5-6 feet more than any other storm in recorded history, iirc.  My point isn't that there won't be major flooding - it's that it won't be catastrophic (like Sandy), meaning mandatory evacuations are unnecessary.  

I don't know if we can really say that. Sandy came onshore fairly quickly and Irene came up from the south and was gone in a day. Having a hurricane/TS offshore for up to 72 hours is pretty unprecedented

[forkyfork]

look at the models yourselves. this is a place where people know a bit more about the wx than the average person, correct?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

[bigtenfan]

I have a flight out of EWR at 4Pm on Sunday. Should I be concerned about cancellation?  Thanks in advance.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

look at the models yourselves. this is a place where people know a bit more about the wx than the average person, correct?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

apparently not

[Allsnow]

rainfall is pretty much a non factor outside the jersey coast this run. The shore takes a beating