Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 an extratropical hurricane? That's a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Live feed of the Mayor talking about the upcoming storm for NYC http://abc7ny.com/live/23376 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr461 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 What do we think the effects on Belmar NJ would be and starting when? Sat getting windy, possibly rain late afternoon and worse Sun for both wind and rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 NWS stated how the surge could be the worst in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: an extratropical hurricane? That's a first. Yeah that's kind of an oxymoron, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: an extratropical hurricane? That's a first. Did you forget Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I would definitely evacuate the lower NJ barrier islands. It's a holiday weekend. The shore towns are going to be packed. It's a potentially catastrophic situation if those islands become flooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 NHC extended the TS Watch to Watch Hill, RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I would definitely evacuate the lower NJ barrier islands. It's a holiday weekend. The shore towns are going to be packed. It's a potentially catastrophic situation if those islands become flooded. I agree. I was supposed to be going to AC tomorrow and staying overnight, trip canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Did you forget Sandy? them calling for it I mean. Guess Sandy changed all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Those odds seem quite high. 30% back to the PA border? Not with a transition to ET and more likely to happen if it in facts strengthens to a hurricane.... storm will expand rapidly once that transition happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I would definitely evacuate the lower NJ barrier islands. It's a holiday weekend. The shore towns are going to be packed. It's a potentially catastrophic situation if those islands become flooded. I think you'll see at least Voluntary evacs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Brian5671 said: I think you'll see at least Voluntary evacs I'd have to agree with NJwx... days and days of water getting pushed up to the coast it will have no where to go... Also the LI sound communities, NY bright and south shore LI towns will flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I agree. I was supposed to be going to AC tomorrow and staying overnight, trip canceled. I would not have cancelled as could be some interesting weather to be in and AC is not as vulnerable. This assuming you would be in casinos and not planning on beach time. Assume red flags and no swimming for all NJ beaches for Sun and Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 17 minutes ago, jr461 said: What do we think the effects on Belmar NJ would be and starting when? Sat getting windy, possibly rain late afternoon and worse Sun for both wind and rain? Too soon to say. May end up with not all that much rain. Either way expect wind and coastal flooding starting Sat night and going downhill from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Keith O said: I would not have cancelled as could be some interesting weather to be in and AC is not as vulnerable. This assuming you would be in casinos and not planning on beach time. Assume red flags and no swimming for all NJ beaches for Sun and Mon. ummm why would anybody plan on beach time anyway... It's going to rain as well!! I think to many people are going to let their guard down.. An ET Hurricane off the coast will cause MAJOR issues all up and down the Jersey shore and LI and MODERATE issues with LI Sound and NYC. Water has to go somewhere guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: ummm why would anybody plan on beach time anyway... It's going to rain as well!! I think to many people are going to let their guard down.. An ET Hurricane off the coast will cause MAJOR issues all up and down the Jersey shore and LI and MODERATE issues with LI should and NYC. Water has to go somewhere guys. I think he meant if it was a beach trip he can understand why it would be canceled. If he's just going for the casinos they probably won't close or evacuate right away but I'm guessing they will be overly cautious with Sandy still fresh in most peoples' minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Keith O said: I would not have cancelled as could be some interesting weather to be in and AC is not as vulnerable. This assuming you would be in casinos and not planning on beach time. Assume red flags and no swimming for all NJ beaches for Sun and Mon. I disagree. Take a look at this tweet on twitter. https://twitter.com/ACPressSkeldon/status/771706721765056512?s=03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: ummm why would anybody plan on beach time anyway... It's going to rain as well!! I think to many people are going to let their guard down.. An ET Hurricane off the coast will cause MAJOR issues all up and down the Jersey shore and LI and MODERATE issues with LI should and NYC. Water has to go somewhere guys. If the heavy rain stays offshore I would expect the majority of folks will underestimate the impacts of prolonged onshore flow and significant storm stalled to the East. Think this ends up anything close to Halloween 1991 impact (i.e. Perfect Storm) for the NJ coast. I remember significant back bay flooding with that and that storm was way NE of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Stormlover74 said: I think he meant if it was a beach trip he can understand why it would be canceled. If he's just going for the casinos they probably won't close or evacuate right away but I'm guessing they will be overly cautious with Sandy still fresh in most peoples' minds. OK I agree partially... I would not be all that surprised if they did shut down to just be cautious, but that decision can wait until tomorrow. However, I remember about 14 years ago when TS Charlie came up the East Coast I was in Seaside and it was not shut down but that was pretty meager compared to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Did you guys forget that we saw virtually no rain with Sandy North of the center? You don't need to be in the rain in order for this to be a major event. Hermine has many similarities and differences with Sandy. A major difference is that Sandy was late October when the energy that phased in was much stronger. Secondly, the water was much colder then too so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I would definitely evacuate the lower NJ barrier islands. It's a holiday weekend. The shore towns are going to be packed. It's a potentially catastrophic situation if those islands become flooded. Thought we covered this yesterday and in my response to you on page 10. There is no reason for mandatory evacuations. Please stop trying to turn this into Sandy or a catastrophic event. Yes, there will be significant coastal flooding in the usual low lying areas and beach erosion and probably TS force winds and some heavy rain, but no worse than any major nor'easter, where we never see mandatory evacuations. Unless there's a major and unprecedented late westward shift in the models/storm, which is very, very unlikely and not worth planning for. For storms like Irene and Sandy, we knew we were going to see hurricane conditions at the coast (and inland), whereas that's NOT the forecast now, at all. I will be in OC NJ for the week starting Saturday and am looking forward to seeing a good storm, but don't feel like we'll be in any danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 My parents in SC have been getting heavy rain but so far only a few gusts of 20 mph or so. Supposed to ramp up to 50-55 mph this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Did you guys forget that we saw virtually no rain with Sandy North of the center? You don't need to be in the rain in order for this to be a major event. Hermine has many similarities and differences with Sandy. A major difference is that Sandy was late October when the energy that phased in was much stronger. Secondly, the water was much colder then too so... Also this will be strengthening offshore to what we have no idea at this time. have to wait until it gets offshore for that to be known. As it stands right now NHC gives up to even parts of Northern Westchester a 40-50% chance of TS Force Winds ... I see that as pretty significant . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Thought we covered this yesterday and in my response to you on page 10. There is no reason for mandatory evacuations. Please stop trying to turn this into Sandy or a catastrophic event. Yes, there will be significant coastal flooding in the usual low lying areas and beach erosion and probably TS force winds and some heavy rain, but no worse than any major nor'easter, where we never see mandatory evacuations. Unless there's a major and unprecedented late westward shift in the models/storm, which is very, very unlikely and not worth planning for. For storms like Irene and Sandy, we knew we were going to see hurricane conditions at the coast (and inland), whereas that's NOT the forecast now, at all. I will be in OC NJ for the week starting Saturday and am looking forward to seeing a good storm, but don't feel like we'll be in any danger. Half the Euro Ensembles are much closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Thought we covered this yesterday and in my response to you on page 10. There is no reason for mandatory evacuations. Please stop trying to turn this into Sandy or a catastrophic event. Yes, there will be significant coastal flooding in the usual low lying areas and beach erosion and probably TS force winds and some heavy rain, but no worse than any major nor'easter, where we never see mandatory evacuations. Unless there's a major and unprecedented late westward shift in the models/storm, which is very, very unlikely and not worth planning for. For storms like Irene and Sandy, we knew we were going to see hurricane conditions at the coast (and inland), whereas that's NOT the forecast now, at all. I will be in OC NJ for the week starting Saturday and am looking forward to seeing a good storm, but don't feel like we'll be in any danger. Only significant? Buddy NJ Coast Islands will be MAJOR flooding!! Believe it. Unfortunate but true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: My parents in SC have been getting heavy rain but so far only a few gusts of 20 mph or so. Supposed to ramp up to 50-55 mph this afternoon Right now she's still in her weakening phase over land. It really wouldn't have been a big deal up here, but since it's going to re-intensify once off the VA Capes, that's why we stand a chance of seeing very strong winds at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Thought we covered this yesterday and in my response to you on page 10. There is no reason for mandatory evacuations. Please stop trying to turn this into Sandy or a catastrophic event. Yes, there will be significant coastal flooding in the usual low lying areas and beach erosion and probably TS force winds and some heavy rain, but no worse than any major nor'easter, where we never see mandatory evacuations. Unless there's a major and unprecedented late westward shift in the models/storm, which is very, very unlikely and not worth planning for. For storms like Irene and Sandy, we knew we were going to see hurricane conditions at the coast (and inland), whereas that's NOT the forecast now, at all. While I agree this isn't Sandy, I disagree that this is like any of major noreaster. This storm looks like it's going to sit off the Delaware coast for days and pile the water into the shoreline for many many high tide cycles. I'm expecting severe coastal flooding as of now and winds strong enough to knock out power along the coast. I think at the very least coastal residents on the Jersey Shore should think about evacuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: Right now she's still in her weakening phase over land. It really wouldn't have been a big deal up here, but since it's going to re-intensify once off the VA Capes, that's why we stand a chance of seeing very strong winds at the coast. The coastal regions up here have a much higher chance of seeing higher winds then what they currently are experiencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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