NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Even if Hermine doesn't make it offshore in South Carolina, I can tell you from experience that the stretch from Savannah to Charleston is all marsh land which won't induce the same weakening affects that you would normally see over land. The same can be said about the Everglades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I also have a hard time believing that the rain shield is going to be as compact as some of the models are indicating. Right now the center can't be more than a hundred miles North of the FL/GA line and yet it's raining up to the NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Even if Hermine doesn't make it offshore in South Carolina, I can tell you from experience that the stretch from Savannah to Charleston is all marsh land which won't induce the same weakening affects that you would normally see over land. The same can be said about the Everglades. the longer it stays Onshore, the better chance for it to effect areas further north. just for shts and giggles , 12z NAM is much further west. 50 to 75 miles. We know people like to bash it, but once a tropical system goes inland, the NAM isn't too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Bacon Strips said: the longer it stays Onshore, the better chance for it to effect areas further north. just for shts and giggles , 12z NAM is much further west. 50 to 75 miles. We know people like to bash it, but once a tropical system goes inland, the NAM isn't too bad. I know The doomsday 12z runs yesterday had the center going over Augusta. I don't think that's going to happen but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Tail end of the 13z HRRR has the center very close or just offshore of Wilmington, NC at 07z. Rain at that point up to Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Nam fwiw is way west and would probably bring significant rains towards 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 12z EXP HRRR has rain into Cape May, NJ before sunrise tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Winds kick in on the NAM by 18z Sunday. I'm seeing sustained 30-40MPH for the city, all of coastal NJ and LI. Immediate coastline of SNJ 40-50MPH sustained. System just starting to deepen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: Winds kick in on the NAM by 18z Sunday. I'm seeing sustained 30-40MPH for the city, all of coastal NJ and LI. Immediate coastline of SNJ 40-50MPH sustained. System just starting to deepen. That seems substantially WEST compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 925mb winds are >80MPH in the heavy convection sitting just offshore. 40-50+ for a good chunk of the area, but you're going to need strong convection to mix that down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, allgame830 said: That seems substantially WEST compared to previous runs. It is, but I'm not sure it's going to be enough up this way. One thing for sure is that the precip field is much more expansive this run, but that seems to be changing every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Band of very strong convection containing hurricane force winds just above the surface, but that seems to be sitting just offshore for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Retrogrades just a hair too far South. Heavy banding literally cuts the city in half with heavy rain over SI, Brooklyn and Queens and virtually nothing north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Very west compared to 6z at 66 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 06z Monday heavy rain from NYC south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Winds get as high as 70kts at 925mb over the city for a short period of time, but again, no heavy rain, not much mixing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: Winds get as high as 70kts at 925mb over the city for a short period of time, but again, no heavy rain, not much mixing down. Heavy rain from NYC south for a period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: Heavy rain from NYC south for a period It's close but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 17 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Just now, NJwx85 said: It's close but no cigar. it's better than 6z. Onto the big boy models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The 4k NAM says we rain by tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Brian5671 said: Way better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The 4k NAM says we rain by tomorrow morning Not sure if I see that happening, but it wouldn't surprise me. The rest of the 12z model suite will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Tropical Storm Watch extended further up the coast, includes NYC, NE NJ, LI and the CT coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I had a feeling they were going to issue those watches further north based on the recent models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 New update Turns back into a hurricane off the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Those odds seem quite high. 30% back to the PA border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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