Big Jims Videos Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 First, please don't use the nam that far out. Second, NHC upped the wind potential a hair for shore areas. Bottom line is still prepare for long duration windy conditions at the beach with increasing tidal cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The EPS at hr 54, hr 78 and day 5 (picked random time stamps bc this doesn't move all that much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Big Jims Videos said: First, please don't use the nam that far out. Second, NHC upped the wind potential a hair for shore areas. Bottom line is still prepare for long duration windy conditions at the beach with increasing tidal cycles. I am well aware, but everyone else has been posting it so why not join the party. But OK thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 14 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: First, please don't use the nam that far out. Second, NHC upped the wind potential a hair for shore areas. Bottom line is still prepare for long duration windy conditions at the beach with increasing tidal cycles. Speaking of the NAM ( a model most of you know I can't stand), the 4k NAM keeps this moving NE through hr 60 and it ends up pretty far north but also east. OT, but what a waste of money running a terrible model at 3 different resolutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Speaking of the NAM ( a model most of you know I can't stand), the 4k NAM keeps this moving NE through hr 60 and it ends up pretty far north but also east. OT, but what a waste of money running a terrible model at 3 different resolutions. Its government, that is one of the things they do best, waste money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 If a capture of this is still on the table, I think you will see the qpf explode on the western side. This storm is stuck inside the benchmark for days. If it under goes extra tropical transition, I'm curious why it wouldn't through back copius amounts of water. But that's why I'm hooked on this hobby; to see something new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Hermine stalling out and intensifying off the Delmarva really piles up the water along the coast with the surge model indicating peak surges of 4-5 feet above normal. http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 What people will remember this storm for is the duration, and how that translates into significant coastal flooding and beach erosion. There are three main elements to wave heights: duration (time), wind intensity, and fetch (area) over which the wind is blowing. Hermine will score very high in terms of time and fetch, and moderate in the intensity category. This will make for significant coastal flooding and beach erosion---the likes of which would normally be attributed to a very intense hurricane. The proximity to the coast while she sits over the open water will compound the coastal flooding effects, as significant wave heights will come with a significant storm surge. I think we'll see coastal flooding damage from Virginia to Cape Cod, and significant impacts to prone areas along the coast, in this respect, from Cape Cod to Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 the dec 1992 storm also did a lot of damage to the coastline this storm won't come close to the damage.... here in nyc we had heavy rain while in high county of new jersey they had 2 feet of snow..i remember a bridge got stuck open here in nyc due to the winds.. they were howling laguardia airport had hurricane force wind gusts.. parts of the subway were closed for days due to flooding.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: If a capture of this is still on the table, I think you will see the qpf explode on the western side. This storm is stuck inside the benchmark for days. If it under goes extra tropical transition, I'm curious why it wouldn't through back copius amounts of water. But that's why I'm hooked on this hobby; to see something new. I think that option remains possible. IF the energy from the trough gets injected it would undergo an extra tropical transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6z GFS looked like it shifted a bit east to me. Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Tremendous rain shield with Hermine currently. Rain almost all the way to Norfolk, VA currently with the center over Southern GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 It seems like if Hermine makes it to Norfolk or Newport News before entering the Atlantic, we'd be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 surprised NHC has it going ET so quick-that's some warm water in the atlantic. However if it does go ET, then I would expect the wind and rain shield to expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 With the storm pulling back off the coast . then sitting there for two or three days . One has to think with the Atlantic waters being a lot warmer then normal . this has to gain energy and get stronger !?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 9 minutes ago, Sportybx said: With the storm pulling back off the coast . then sitting there for two or three days . One has to think with the Atlantic waters being a lot warmer then normal . this has to gain energy and get stronger !?! Upwelling would probably cap it a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 This doesn't look like your typical ET as the Euro holds onto a warm core well into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: seems like a bit more are to the west this run, am I correct with that thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 when is Hermine forecasted to turn more to the NE, if it doesn't soon it seems to me that it will track to the outermost western portion of the forecast cone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Almost all of them are curving back That's a pretty bad forecast for the jersey shore and Long Island. On the flip side we could see very little rain outside the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That's a pretty bad forecast for the jersey shore and Long Island. On the flip side we could see very little rain outside the immediate coast Yep All depends on how close this low gets when the recurve happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: This doesn't look like your typical ET as the Euro holds onto a warm core well into next week. Agreed. This is the climatological peak for SST in the Atlantic, and that's the northern Gulf stream it's hanging around, which would imply an environment conducive to tropical --not barolocinic -- development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Mt.Holly 7:00 am briefing package, next update at 5:00 pm. http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 15 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Agreed. This is the climatological peak for SST in the Atlantic, and that's the northern Gulf stream it's hanging around, which would imply an environment conducive to tropical --not barolocinic -- development. Yeah, the area east of the Delmarva has a slightly better THP now than the area of landfall along the Gulf Coast. It looks to be an interesting blend of tropical and baroclinic energy fueling this when it phases with the cutoff. The cyclone phase charts show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The center of Hermine could be back over water as soon as 8-9PM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The center of Hermine could be back over water as soon as 8-9PM tonight. How is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, allgame830 said: How is that possible? Some of the short term models have it reaching the coast of South Carolina by 02z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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