wthrmn654 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Looking at the gfs and cmc, looks worse for long island flooding wise I think,stronger storm and stronger winds. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Ukie is similar to the Canadian but a little weaker and a little further east at our latitude (from the crappy view I've seen). 12z was further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Ukie is similar to the Canadian but a little weaker and a little further east at our latitude (from the crappy view I've seen). 12z was further east. Way west of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Looking at the gfs and cmc, looks worse for long island flooding wise I think,stronger storm and stronger winds. I could be wrong. Yes Hurricane force winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I'm safe from Hermine here in Dale City. We are pretty far from the coast. We'll see a few cirrus and some increased humidity. Saturday is going to be a gorgeous day for swimming in the outdoor pools. I feel real sorry for you folks on the eastern Shore, you will probably get thrashed pretty good. Get to high ground NOW!!! This is why I dont have beachfront property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 When I bought a new truck,Sandy hit,I just bought a new house,now Hermine going hit.. I'm seeing a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: When I bought a new truck,Sandy hit,I just bought a new house,now Hermine going hit.. I'm seeing a trend I am very very glad i dont live in New York City. One day a cane will hit that city so bad......... It would be no fun with tons of salt water pouring into the subways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: I am very very glad i dont live in New York City. One day a cane will hit that city so bad......... It would be no fun with tons of salt water pouring into the subways Dude that's what happened in Sandy. They still haven't fixed all the subway damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Jebman said: I am very very glad i dont live in New York City. One day a cane will hit that city so bad......... It would be no fun with tons of salt water pouring into the subways Sandy was a disaster over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, hooralph said: Dude that's what happened in Sandy. They still haven't fixed all the subway damage. I hope that NEVER, EVER happens again. That was terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 9 minutes ago, Jebman said: I hope that NEVER, EVER happens again. That was terrible. 5 days without power 85 mph wind gusts My area was an ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 0z GEFS agrees with the op in regards to the retrogading low and stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Navgem is north of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 What strikes me is what several of the professional mets are saying -- irrespective of some statements here tonight -- that the uncertainty level still remains very high.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 43 minutes ago, Snow88 said: ggem has hurricane force winds right near LI on the cmc. Intense. What's the timing as to when those winds arrive, given the aforementioned scoot east and subsequent retrogression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 32 minutes ago, Jebman said: I am very very glad i dont live in New York City. One day a cane will hit that city so bad......... It would be no fun with tons of salt water pouring into the subways That already happened in 2012 with Sandy. I miss your analyses of the TX rain events the last two springs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Eduardo said: What's the timing as to when those winds arrive, given the aforementioned scoot east and subsequent retrogression? Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: Your kidding right? The models have been back and forth. Gfs,hasn't been stellar, Euro has been better again. Tricky setup period. Things can change easily. This is still a few days out, but right now I wouldn't be that scared for major effects on LI besides the back bay vulnerable areas like Freeport, and the usual areas like Sea Bright that get battered on the NJ shore. The evacuation calls are unwarranted unless we see a major shift west tomorrow. Sandy and Irene were more clear cut than this at this point, and even then Mayor Bloomberg called Sandy "just a nor'easter" for NYC at this stage which he deservedly got killed for. Even so, major surge wouldn't be caused unless Hermine left-hooked right into NJ, which would back the winds to E and ESE north of the track. Irene as a borderline hurricane made landfall in Coney Island and the surge wasn't that bad. The biggest threat IMO would be a few days of beach erosion caused by high waves and tides, and back bay flooding, not a surge. That would certainly be a big annoyance, but unless there's a significant enhancement of the threat, not a cause for evacuations outside of the lowest lying areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 31 minutes ago, mophstymeo01 said: What strikes me is what several of the professional mets are saying -- irrespective of some statements here tonight -- that the uncertainty level still remains very high. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk I'm sure mets are saying there is still some uncertainty, because there is, but I guarantee you every one of them wlll tell you that the uncertainty level now is much less than it was 30 hours ago, since we're 30 hours closer to the event and Hermine is far better defined/sampled than it was then (better initial conditions for the models). I've probably done as much computational fluid dynamics modeling as most pro mets, albeit on different systems at different scales (chemical reactors), but the equations are essentially the same, as are the models used to predict future states based on current states combined with a fundamental phenomenological understanding of the chemical and physical processes involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Euro is east of 12z but it retrogades west just like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Euro stalls the storm from hour 60-140 LOL Not a lot of rain but very windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 This is ugly for NJ Shore ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The next few model runs should be interesting to say the least, still plenty of uncertainty as far as I am concerned. I certainly don't think this will be a non event by any means just a difference in impacts depending on your location. I am very concerned about the coastal flooding impacts in the region especially if Hermine stalls for a prolonged period of time like some of the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6z spaghetti models shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Updated hurricane models These models are starting to retrogade back to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 It is becoming clear this will stall and loop off the NJ/Del (MA) coast for at least 48hrs (crazy to think more possible also)... This is extremely rare for a tropical system here, hell the h5 setup is very unordinary for a east coast tropical system. So this seems like a rare event. Taking all this into account, we shouldn't play around, at least not yet. The shore needs to take this seriously. No its not sandy but this will really test things post-sandy. We continue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 12 minutes ago, Jason WX said: 6z spaghetti models shifted west Yep They show the storm retrogading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 could this be a repeat of the dec 1992 northeaster minus the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 You don't need a lot of precip for major coastal issues. Think back to Halloween 1991. Also mandatory Evacs would only happen by me if we have greater than 4 foot water rise. I'll be meeting with local Ema officials today beginning at 5 am with latest. I'll be in Asbury park and my news 12 colleague tony will be covering ocean county beaches this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The 06z NAM is much further west and closer to the coast then 00z, also gives the region some rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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