Potential Hermine Impacts

[Jason WX]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Pic?

[Hoth]

Hermine starting to look hawt. Nice towers blossoming. We'll see how long it takes for pressure/surface winds to respond.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It really looks like this is undergoing RI currently.

 

 

 

90 knots at flight level latest recon 

[Jason WX]

Check out this live cam in Cedar Key, FL http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF?utm_campaign=t.co&utm_source=ustre.am%2F1rAmM&utm_medium=social&utm_content=20160901125117

[Franklin0529]

Everyone give up hope on this thing? She's looking real pretty down there almost on shore. Another 2 hr or so 

 

[MJO812]

Nam stalls the storm way south near the mid atlantic

 

No rain at all from snj northward

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam stalls the storm way south near the mid atlantic

 

No rain at all from snj northward

Honestly the biggest reason we need this up here is so the Mets don't play Sunday and don't have 2 games in 2 cities in a 14 hour span . If we can just get a bunch of rain and no strong winds that would be great but I'm leaning towards this being a near miss right now 

[MJO812]

[larrye]

From the 11PM NHC Update. If this verifies, things could get interesting around here at the beaches even if it remains offshore:

The initial motion remains 030/12.  The flow on the eastern side of
a mid-level trough over the southeastern United States should cause
Hermine to move north-northeastward to northeastward with an
increase in forward speed during the next 36 hours.  The track
guidance is tightly clustered during this period, and this part of
the forecast track is an update of the previous track.  At 48 hours
and beyond, Hermine is expected to interact with a baroclinic trough
over the northeastern United States.  The track guidance become
rather divergent during this period, with the GFS and ECMWF models
showing a looping track close to the coast, while the UKMET and
Canadian models show a slow motion somewhat farther offshore.  The
new forecast track compromises between these solutions and shows a
slow northeastward motion during this time.  Regardless of the exact
track, Hermine should linger for several days near the northeastern
U. S. coast as a vigorous low pressure system.

A little more strengthening is possible during the last few hours
before landfall.  After landfall, Hermine is expected to weaken as
it crosses the southeastern United States, eventually emerging from
the North Carolina coast as a tropical storm.  The cyclone is
expected to re-intensify as an extratropical low during its
interaction with the baroclinic trough.  The forecast intensities
have been raised for this part of the forecast based on global model
forecasts, and it is possible that they are a little conservative.
Later in the forecast period, vertical shear decreases, and the
cyclone could be situated over marginally warm waters.  Therefore
there is the possibility of the system regaining some tropical
characteristics in 4-5 days, although this remains speculative.

[allgame830]

^ after reading that not sure how people figure this will be a non event outside the coastal region, considering the NHC bended the forecast track to the west off the coast of NJ.

[Neblizzard]

By hour 72 the 0z GFS barely has any rain on the NJ coast.  Hermine is starting to retrograde towards the DE coast but it's still east at that time. 

[weatherdude888]

4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

^ after reading that not sure how people figure this will be a non event outside the coastal region, considering the NHC bended the forecast track to the west off the coast of NJ.

Globals should be starting soon.....someone want to do a PBP?

[MJO812]

Still too close to give up

[larrye]

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

^ after reading that not sure how people figure this will be a non event outside the coastal region, considering the NHC bended the forecast track to the west off the coast of NJ.

Well, I think it's too early to tell for sure. At the very least, the waves could be a sight to see. I think if it does intensify, the current forecast calls for 65kt if I remember correctly and it will all depend upon how close it comes. Like the NHC said, the UKMET and Canadian models have it further out to sea. I think the NAM did also (yes I'm using the NAM here because Hermine does become extratropical and move over land during part of it's life). Let's see what the models look like tomorrow. Even for the coast, I don't think the govt officials want to jump the gun too soon and encourage people to leave over a holiday weekend unless it's absolutely necessary. 

[Neblizzard]

By hour 78 she is virtually stationary about 150 miles East of ocean city MD with some rain and strong winds on the NJ shore.  This is going to be a close call for sure. 

[jm1220]

The evacuation calls are still way too soon given the variability of the latest model runs and the likelihood still that this ends up safely offshore for big surge effects. This is nothing like how Sandy turned out, which was a steadily converging track into NJ. It still takes a very special setup for a severe result to happen for land areas. I'd still bet on a result that the center ends up decently out to sea with high waves for the coast and some showers and wind, but otherwise minimal effects. Models today largely have been trending to a further SE capture which ultimately results in a SE result. 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

By hour 72 the 0z GFS barely has any rain on the NJ coast.  Hermine is starting to retrograde towards the DE coast but it's still east at that time. 

Hopefully at least some rain can hit the coast given the drought, but IMO there needs to be a big reversal tomorrow for major effects to be felt. Hermine rotating well offshore will kick up big waves and some minor to moderate flooding and winds, but nothing beyond a decent nor'easter. Especially if it regains tropical characteristics and the winds merge back towards the center. 

[RU848789]

10 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I'd say it's almost a lock that the NJ barrier islands are going to be on mandatory evacuation this weekend. Talk about terrible timing. 

 

9 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Doubtful, assuming the NHC track verifies.  

 

9 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

They did mandatory evacuations with Irene and it wasn't hardly the wind threat that this is because the system ran inland from NC.

Still think mandatory evacuations?  I'll be amazed if there are mandatory evacuations.  Been out all afternoon and evening, but have come back and the NHC track is very similar to what it was when I posted (even a little more east of where it was), such that it's becoming pretty clear that Hermine is unlikely to be much worse than a standard nor'easter for most folks along the Jersey Shore and NYC/LI.  Yes, there's going to be some heavy rain at the immediate coast (at least in NJ, especially south of Belmar) and there will likely be some TS force winds of 40-50 mph at times, but with the center over 100 miles from the NJ coast, the 60 mph winds are very unlikely to make it on shore.  And there will be moderate to maybe even major coastal flooding and beach erosion, especially with multi-day impact (3-4 foot storm surge), but likely less than for Irene (4-5 feet) and way less than for Sandy (9-10 foot surges), which was an extraordinary event.  

Unless there is some major shift in the track forecast (very unlikely now, as we're closer to the event, meaning the cone of uncertainty/error is less), I seriously doubt we'll see mandatory evacuations (maybe voluntary in Cape May/Atlantic Counties, at most).  In addition, I honestly think you should temper your posts a bit, as you're being a bit sensationalistic, in my opinion.  I don't think it's your intention, but when you talk about areas being "destroyed" I'm sure others start thinking about this storm being like Sandy and this storm is in no way, shape or form a Sandy, which was a once in 100-500 year storm.  Being inaccurate doesn't help your case either.  For example, your statement about Irene, above is way off base.  Irene made landfall in Brigantine with 70 mph winds (and another in Coney Island at 65 mph a few hours later), much higher than winds expected for Hermine as it meanders well off shore.  Irene was a hurricane until a few hours before that landfall and was obviously coming right at the Jersey Shore, again, unlike Hermine, which is not taking aim at NJ.  

[wthrmn654]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

 

Still think mandatory evacuations?  I'll be amazed if there are mandatory evacuations.  Been out all afternoon and evening, but have come back and the NHC track is very similar to what it was when I posted (even a little more east of where it was), such that it's becoming pretty clear that Hermine is unlikely to be much worse than a standard nor'easter for most folks along the Jersey Shore and NYC/LI.  Yes, there's going to be some heavy rain at the immediate coast (at least in NJ, especially south of Belmar) and there will likely be some TS force winds of 40-50 mph at times, but with the center over 100 miles from the NJ coast, the 60 mph winds are very unlikely to make it on shore.  And there will be moderate to maybe even major coastal flooding and beach erosion, especially with multi-day impact (3-4 foot storm surge), but likely less than for Irene (4-5 feet) and way less than for Sandy (9-10 foot surges), which was an extraordinary event.  

Unless there is some major shift in the track forecast (very unlikely now, as we're closer to the event, meaning the cone of uncertainty/error is less), I seriously doubt we'll see mandatory evacuations (maybe voluntary in Cape May/Atlantic Counties, at most).  In addition, I honestly think you should temper your posts a bit, as you're being a bit sensationalistic, in my opinion.  I don't think it's your intention, but when you talk about areas being "destroyed" I'm sure others start thinking about this storm being like Sandy and this storm is in no way, shape or form a Sandy, which was a once in 100-500 year storm.  Being inaccurate doesn't help your case either.  For example, your statement about Irene, above is way off base.  Irene made landfall in Brigantine with 70 mph winds (and another in Coney Island at 65 mph a few hours later), much higher than winds expected for Hermine as it meanders well off shore.  Irene was a hurricane until a few hours before that landfall and was obviously coming right at the Jersey Shore, again, unlike Hermine, which is not taking aim at NJ.  

Your kidding right? The models have been back and forth. Gfs,hasn't been stellar, Euro has been better again. Tricky setup period. Things can change easily. 

[p626808]

GFS has this off the coast thru Friday!! AHHH

[wthrmn654]

Jma, had the storm till at least Thursday and it has a closer hit when I looked earlier.

[Rjay]

Seriously just loop the 0z gfs.  Crazy.  Serious coastal flooding issues.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[SnoSki14]

You definitely want to keep this further SE because if the storm were to get stuck 100-125 miles further NW then parts of the shoreline would be devastated.

[MJO812]

Ggem is way further east and ots

[Jason WX]

Just a few miles west on the GFS and NJ would drown 

[MJO812]

What a crazy gfs run

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Ggem is way further east and ots

Then retrogrades towards LI before drifting NE.

[Rjay]

It would be a kick in the nuts it drought stricken areas of LI saw no rain and beaches still got heavily damaged.

[RU848789]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The evacuation calls are still way too soon given the variability of the latest model runs and the likelihood still that this ends up safely offshore for big surge effects. This is nothing like how Sandy turned out, which was a steadily converging track into NJ. It still takes a very special setup for a severe result to happen for land areas. I'd still bet on a result that the center ends up decently out to sea with high waves for the coast and some showers and wind, but otherwise minimal effects. Models today largely have been trending to a further SE capture which ultimately results in a SE result. 

Great post - my thinking exactly.  Some people simply don't understand deterministic numerical models.  They see the big shifts we saw 24-48 hours ago, when Hermine was being born and just getting going and assume similar big shifts will happen now.  Yes, a big shift is theoretically possible now, but far less likely, due to the fact that we're much closer to the event in this area (the error bars decrease as one gets closer), combined with the fact that the initial conditions being input into the models are far more accurate now than they were when Hermine was being born and the ability to get a fix on Hermine's location and conditions was far harder.  

Of course, this storm still needs to be watched very closely, as surprises can happen (and even a 50 mile track shift, which is possible, changes the forecast dramatically), but as of now, this looks to be a near miss for inland areas with fairly modest effects and a significant storm for coastal areas with respect to coastal flooding and beach erosion, but probably not as much, anymore, for rain/wind.  

 

[MJO812]

ggem has hurricane force winds right near LI on the cmc. Intense.