Zelocita Weather Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Nam takes the system at hr 72 off the southern tip of the Delmarva. Real strong system on the nam also. About 100 miles south of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Starts drifting south at hr 81. Winds are pretty gusty along the shore line and costal flooding would be a concern. But the majority of the area escapes any serious rain 25-30mph winds along the shore line and se VA over a foot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Even with most of the rain confined to the South of us on the NAM, the NJ beaches still take a beating with several hours of 40-50MPH Easterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Even with most of the rain confined to the South of us on the NAM, the NJ beaches still take a beating with several hours of 40-50MPH Easterly winds. Some serious tropical storm winds on the Delmarva beaches. 60+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 One of the biggest questions here is how strong will this system be once it enters the Atlantic again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Why did the NAM initialize with the pressure 10mb to high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: One of the biggest questions here is how strong will this system be once it enters the Atlantic again. It won't really matter if it doesn't get captured and ends up out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 11 minutes ago, Morris said: Why did the NAM initialize with the pressure 10mb to high. Low resolution. The 4k NAM initialized at 998mb. Down to 991mb by 18z. Landfall occurs at 986mb at 06z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just for sh*ts and giggles The cyclone starts moving West after this frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 14 minutes ago, allgame830 said: One of the biggest questions here is how strong will this system be once it enters the Atlantic again. the biggest question is how strong is the high to the North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The NAM is useless for tropicals. Useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: The NAM is useless for tropicals. Useless. I was going to post that, but I think it might have some usefulness once it gets up this way because it will be extratropical by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The NAM is useless for tropicals. Useless. Yeah, that's not one of the biggest questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I was going to post that, but I think it might have some usefulness once it gets up this way because it will be extratropical by then. Maybe 24 hrs out. It's not made for tropical systems at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The GFS gets close to landfall right near Apalchicola, FL before moving almost due East with an eventual landfall south of Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Also on the GFS, forward progress has picked up by about 3 hours compared to the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 GFS 15z position is on the Western edge of the NHC cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The center ends up very close to August, GA 18z Friday on the far Western edge of the NHC cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Hermine already starting to interact with the ULL as early as 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Still running about the same as 06z except about 3 hours quicker which should hopefully allow it to get just a bit further North before the transition begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 By 18z Saturday the GFS is a bit East of its 06z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Rgem crushes the jersey shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: Rgem crushes the jersey shore Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 50-60MPH Easterly winds from Long Island all the way South into the Mid-Atlantic. Not much wind inland so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 850s are warm and the boundary layer is torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 12z Sunday hr 72 hooking back towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: 850s are warm and the boundary layer is torched. Yup looks like all rain. At least it won't be too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Absolutely destroyed on Saturday night and Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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