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September Obs/Disco Thread


H2O

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SPC has us in a Marginal risk for tomorrow. Looks like there could be some early stuff west of D.C., with some afternoon/evening activity closer to the Potomac eastward. Hodos aren't great, but we could see a few supercells in the region. Would be high-based, though, so not much of a tornado threat, plus the low-to-mid level wind speeds are on the weak side.

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I'm hoping for counties-wide fires started by lightning strikes that burn everything to the ground except for my house.

As long as they're weather-related, I can wish for them.



Gonna be a lonely place for you here in the winter if all of us burn
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SPC has us in a Marginal risk for tomorrow. Looks like there could be some early stuff west of D.C., with some afternoon/evening activity closer to the Potomac eastward. Hodos aren't great, but we could see a few supercells in the region. Would be high-based, though, so not much of a tornado threat, plus the low-to-mid level wind speeds are on the weak side.

 

    Tonight's guidance seems to agree with this earlier thought.   GFS and NAM in particular have good convective signals very early in the evening.   The NAM nest simulation has some initial cells west of DC and then brings more organized activity south out of PA in the early evening.

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Storms sliding down out of the north to east of me and to the west of me.  Hooray.

LOL....amazing.

Dry here. Leaves falling off trees still green or brown, however was at cemetery changing flowers on wife's marker and cleaning up yesterday and noticed the two 'early predictors' maples were starting to turn red and orange. WAY to hot next few days for this time of year, headed to Cass/Snowshoe area for couple days, maybe they can stay closer to 80.

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LOL....amazing.

Dry here. Leaves falling off trees still green or brown, however was at cemetery changing flowers on wife's marker and cleaning up yesterday and noticed the two 'early predictors' maples were starting to turn red and orange. WAY to hot next few days for this time of year, headed to Cass/Snowshoe area for couple days, maybe they can stay closer to 80.

Definitely need an escape to the high altitudes.  My forecast for Saturday is now up to 94, and we almost always end up 2 - 3 degrees higher than that.

Same here with the falling dead leaves....everywhere.  So much for autumn foliage this year.  As bad as it is right now, this will be nothing after several days in the mid-90s and lows in the 70s.

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3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Accuwx shows 73 / 44 for 9-21.  If that is legit, I have a feeling I'll be feeling sick that day....cough....cough.

If second front next week doesn't stall, wash out, or meet resistance, you should get a taste of those temps before the 21st. The next 4 days are *probably* the last of the really bad stuff. We'll get warm days of course but 5 day strings in the 90's should start getting pretty hard to come by. Famous last words of course. lol.  

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