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September Obs/Disco Thread

H2O

By H2O,
in Mid Atlantic

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nw baltimore wx

nw baltimore wx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

Spent a couple hours exploring the Cape Charles, VA area on my way home from the Outer Banks. Visited the State Park and National Wildlife Refuge. Beautiful day and area. 

I've never been down the eastern spine of Virginia having only gotten as far as Crisfield and Chincoteague before taking the ferry across to Point Lookout, but a friend of mine spent a week in the Cape Charles area recently and loved it. I've heard from a few friends that the area down there is incredibly beautiful. 

Glad that you had a nice day for exploring.

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ThePhotoGuy

ThePhotoGuy

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I've never been down the eastern spine of Virginia having only gotten as far as Crisfield and Chincoteague before taking the ferry across to Point Lookout, but a friend of mine spent a week in the Cape Charles area recently and loved it. I've heard from a few friends that the area down there is incredibly beautiful. 

Glad that you had a nice day for exploring.

Yeah, it is very beautiful area. Very "natural." It is pretty rural area. Might try to make it down next spring/summer for a couple days. I will post some pictures this week in the photo thread. It is a great area for kayakers, boaters, fisherman, etc. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Hmmm... another GFS vs EURO fight... from this afternoon's LWX disco: 

Guidance is more solid on the low pressure that develops either
redeveloping further west or being pulled west by the upper low on
Thursday, with most guidance showing at least some rain across the
region. It should be noted that while the GFS is fairly dry with
more showery weather, the more southwesterly storm development
depicted by the ECMWF nows shows several inches of rain.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

For those talking grass:

Its a great time for planting.  You don't need to worry about rain until after it germinates.  Then you'd better worry. After it does, mow it as soon and as often as you can.

Also, if not planting, this is the best time of the year to kill weeds in the lawn.

Just thought I'd try to help. :)

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H2O

H2O

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DAYS 2 AND 3... 
  
...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM THE
MEAN FLOW AND DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL
PLAY A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH EXPECT
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE EASTERN MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
HEIGHT FALLS. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO HELP
CONCENTRATE AN AXIS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE ACTIVITY
LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AROUND AND
STRENGTHEN AROUND THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW.

INCREASINGLY STRONG AND BACKING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER QUICK RESURGENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE UP NORTH
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT REGION. THIS
COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH 250
MB RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL FACILITATE THE EXPANSION OF A NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTED BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE LED BY THE GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF ALL SUGGEST HEAVY
RAINS WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL VA
TO SOUTHERN PA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
A THREAT FOR SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND/OR FLASH FLOODING...AND AS
SUCH...A SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS.

THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BACK AROUND FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH OF THE OH
RIVER AND DOWN INTO KY. THIS IS WHEN SOME OF THE BIGGER MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS SHOW UP AS THE ECMWF INSISTS ON THE UPPER LOW
FOCUSING FARTHER WEST THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS/NAM/UKMET
AND CMC ARE FARTHER EAST. THE ECMWF POSITION WOULD ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENT BACKING OF THE FLOW FOR THERE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE FLOW RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE SPINE OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING SOUTHWEST PA...WESTERN MD...CENTRAL WV
AND FAR WESTERN VA. THE REMAINING MODELS SUGGEST THE FOCUS OF THE
STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW OCCURRING A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS REGION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
BUT INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE FROM NORTHERN VA INTO CENTRAL PA. THE
GFS SUGGESTS 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES REACHING OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL OVER CENTRAL PA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF FOCUSES THESE ANOMALIES FARTHER BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WPC AT THIS TIME HAS DECIDED TO LEAN GENERALLY AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF IN FAVOR OF A CONSENSUS THAT IS CLOSE TO A
GFS/UKMET COMPROMISE. STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH ENHANCED ATLANTIC INFLOW WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THE SET-UP FOR THIS EVENT BASICALLY IS
CONSISTENT WITH THAT OF AN EAST COAST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER GIVEN THE
LONG-FETCH ATLANTIC TRAJECTORY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. A MODERATE
RISK IS BEING INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AT THIS
TIME FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN MD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. LATER MODEL
RUNS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL FINE-TUNING OF THIS OUTLOOK...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS

 

 

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