high risk Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 2 hours ago, dailylurker said: Looks like the GFS wants to give us 1-2" Sunday night. Man.. that would be nice. yeah, but that's in scattered maxima, not area-wide. The good news is that the PW values will likely approach 2", so any cells could dump a ton of water. What I don't like is that it looks like cells may move from SW to NE along an axis that only slowly sinks southeast. Several models right now show that areas northwest of DC would be favored, and that's consistent with the WPC excessive rainfall map that was posted by losetoa6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 3 hours ago, high risk said: yeah, but that's in scattered maxima, not area-wide. The good news is that the PW values will likely approach 2", so any cells could dump a ton of water. What I don't like is that it looks like cells may move from SW to NE along an axis that only slowly sinks southeast. Several models right now show that areas northwest of DC would be favored, and that's consistent with the WPC excessive rainfall map that was posted by losetoa6. So I might need to put the AC on for the humidity mainly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Daily climb at Dca has 69 as high with 70 norm and 66 low with 63 norm they list daily departure as +2 but should be +1 and it's not matter of onehalf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Do not want https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cshw1d_WcAA_OI2.jpg:large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Meh. Can kinda see where this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Meh. Can kinda see where this is going. The dreaded inverted "V". Winterwxlvr's favorite. Is it January already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: The dreaded inverted "V". Winterwxlvr's favorite. Is it January already? I hate that godda*n inverted v. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Latest WPC QPF map looking a bit better. Less pronounced inverted V lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Highest temp forecasted for here over the next 7 days is 85. I am sure I will see a 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Latest WPC QPF map looking a bit better. Less pronounced inverted V lol. Either NPZ moved or that map isn't going to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: Either NPZ moved or that map isn't going to be right. Definitely the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Definitely the latter. Yeah, no way you win the rain total, model doesn't know your area well, does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Beautiful sunrise this morning. Looking forward to all the rain we can get later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Fog . Drizzle. 70/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 LWX has decent PoPs for this afternoon, but the hi-res guidance suggests that any showers/storms during the daylight hours will be widely scattered at best, perhaps non-existent. Overall, the best signal for organized and heavy rain is very late tonight and early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Overnight ensembles of the EPS/GEFS continue to show above normal temps through the next 10 days. It's going to be quite warm and somewhat humid at times with +5-10C anomalies. The good news is that both EPS and GEFS are on board with a significant fall-like pattern change around October 1st. I think the change to cooler weather has credibility as it has been consistent on the models for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 39 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: Overnight ensembles of the EPS/GEFS continue to show above normal temps through the next 10 days. It's going to be quite warm and somewhat humid at times with +5-10C anomalies. The good news is that both EPS and GEFS are on board with a significant fall-like pattern change around October 1st. I think the change to cooler weather has credibility as it has been consistent on the models for several runs. Agreed, looks like may even get a Davis Straights block to develop at the end of the month. Seasonal changes on the horizon. I imagine that some of this is in reaction to the re-curving typhoon in the West Pac as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 1 hour ago, Round Hill WX said: Overnight ensembles of the EPS/GEFS continue to show above normal temps through the next 10 days. It's going to be quite warm and somewhat humid at times with +5-10C anomalies. The good news is that both EPS and GEFS are on board with a significant fall-like pattern change around October 1st. I think the change to cooler weather has credibility as it has been consistent on the models for several runs. It's now obvious that september is a summer month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 7 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: It's now obvious that september is a summer month. That's no more surprising than the majority of March being a winter month or the the warmest and coldest avg temps lag their respective solstices by about 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Hmmm. This looks pretty good for someone in the LWX area to get some decent rain totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 54 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Hmmm. This looks pretty good for someone in the LWX area to get some decent rain totals. Never discount those mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Never discount those mountains No doubt. The gfs isn't very impressive at all, but the nam looks pretty good. Almost like it's holding the front back enough to give us some heating dynamics tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest qpf map from wpc looks just like the 12z Euro and slams 95 and east especially. Seems like some link up to the tropical moisture from Julia getting pulled in. We could all use the rain . The WPC map has the plume of QFP hooking right into our area and then into Northern Delaware and SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Latest qpf map from wpc looks just like the 12z Euro and slams 95 and east especially. Boy, I'm shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 26 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Boy, I'm shocked. I have had 0.05" in the past 4 weeks. Its a dust bowl here. I will believe it when i see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I have had 0.05" in the past 4 weeks. Its a dust bowl here. I will believe it when i see it. Same. And from the looks of the radar, I won't be getting anything meaningful for at least another week either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 22z HRRRRRRRRR dumps on us pretty good tomorrow morning. 2"+ for most everyone and still raining at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 22z HRRRRRRRRR dumps on us pretty good tomorrow morning. 2"+ for most everyone and still raining at the end of the run. Was about to post the same. More aggressive than the 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 22z HRRRRRRRRR dumps on us pretty good tomorrow morning. 2"+ for most everyone and still raining at the end of the run. 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Was about to post the same. More aggressive than the 4km NAM. Anything fall over I-81? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 21 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Anything fall over I-81? 23z gets you good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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