Fall+Banter

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Chilly in mid-September is like highs in the 50s/60s from north to south, I haven't seen anyone thinking that lol.

Looks like beautiful 70s for a long time.

Plenty of 80's early mid next week and shot of 90 at BDL 1 of the days 

[CoastalWx]

Lots of 80s with higher humidity to me. 

[OceanStWx]

10 hours ago, uncle W said:

Boston Gale in 1869...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1869-09-10/ed-1/seq-1/

Good hurricane season to weenie out to.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Good hurricane season to weenie out to.

can someone para phrase that?

jesus -

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lots of 80s with higher humidity to me. 

Meh, next week looks awesome, we wind it down

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

can someone para phrase that?

jesus -

A Kevin special, good old fashioned SE gale. Likely a near cat 3 hurricane landfall, Bob-like track but more west. 

Typical roof, chimney, church steeple damage. Lots of boats dashed on beaches/rocks/islands.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

A Kevin special, good old fashioned SE gale. Likely a near cat 3 hurricane landfall, Bob-like track but more west. 

Typical roof, chimney, church steeple damage. Lots of boats dashed on beaches/rocks/islands.

came in at low tide luckily

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

A Kevin special, good old fashioned SE gale. Likely a near cat 3 hurricane landfall, Bob-like track but more west. 

Typical roof, chimney, church steeple damage. Lots of boats dashed on beaches/rocks/islands.

 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

 

Stop stealing my social media graphics!

[Typhoon Tip]

18 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah there have been several times where the long wave pattern supported some insane heat...but we never really got it sans maybe that one really impressive 'bout of 96/72 type stuff for a couple days.

 

The longwave pattern has been more than enough to tilt the summer solidly positive in the departures for our area, but it definitely under performed the potential. You would have thought that type of pattern would yield a couple different widespread 100+ type heat waves. They are rare, yes, but this type of hemispheric pattern was ripe for that. It's kind of like those winters where the NH pattern is just screaming for a cold shot that gives everyone below 0F lows...even BOS on the harbor. Then when the period is over, you look back and realize the best you got was a low of 5F at BOS with maybe tickling just below 0F in the suburbs/ORH hills....impressive cold by itself, but not what you had in mind when looking at the teleconnections and the ridge placement up north.

maybe it's just the fractal nature of the fluid atmosphere rearing it's ugly head from time to time ... but, frankly, there really seems to be an entirely different order of events that's abstract about the weather. 

and, likewise, ...it's equally as difficult to describe just what that is.  the simplest description i can come up with, 'when your on, your on, when your not, your not'.

basically, regardless of whether we're talking winter or summer phenomenon ...or any phenomenon for that matter, the "patterns" and teleconnectors seem to only guide with perhaps 60% authority; the rest is anti-correlated noise.   BUT, what is pertinent to the point at hand, said noise sometimes guides the entire interval of time.  

another way to look at it is/are those times when you think, 'man, it just can't snow - no matter what' ... or vice versa.  sometimes you're adding goodly seasonal snow totals is a schit pattern...  interesting. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Stop stealing my social media graphics!

wut?

http://www.hurricane.com/hurricane-season/hurricane-season-1869.php

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

A Kevin special, good old fashioned SE gale. Likely a near cat 3 hurricane landfall, Bob-like track but more west. 

Typical roof, chimney, church steeple damage. Lots of boats dashed on beaches/rocks/islands.

nice! ... yet another example of why "Long Island" is a just a bad idea in wait of judgement day ... 

boy, how history is riddled with worst-case-scenarios that by shear benefit of temporal logic ...managed to somehow NOT do so 100 years before the invention of "Long Island" - at least not enough.

for that matter, talk about feeling 'chosen' - like, why are we looking at 100 year return rates?   i think the question is more in need than ever for obvious reasons. maybe that's normal - but even so, it underscores the bad idea of "Long Island" - it pretty much became "Long Island" since 1938.  That was relatively modern, too, and thus, how can 'bad idea' actually be like having 'no idea' ?

umm, okay.  it's almost so balk disrespectful you can't really be sympathetic. 

I actually was watching this show about Mega Tsunamis on the science channel some years ago ... the show covered primarily seismology and thrust quakes, like Sumutra, Alaska...landslades and volcanoes, the usual suspects.  But, they did reserve a small segment of the show for storm surges and places like Naragansett Bay or the Bay of Bengal were discussed.  ...both places where the topography/geology are uniquely designed to kill and maim everything living or inanimate with macabre efficiency

... A team of scientist apprarently doing core/mud sampling at the head of Nara Bay said there is evidence of 100 foot over-top silt events/ ordeals in the ancient past.  they think it could be tsunamis - there are faults around the Atlantic Basin capable of thrust. there's also the Canary island scare..?  

but they didn't rule out the possibility of perfect storm scenarios... some kind of new moon on top of rapture... 

granted, the Sci Channel has long diluted it's intellectual property down to deliver a honkathon so plebeian wits can get there fix, so as to keep 'em tuned in ..heh, still, there is some shred of truth in all that.  

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

maybe it's just the fractal nature of the fluid atmosphere rearing it's ugly head from time to time ... but, frankly, there really seems to be an entirely different order of events that's abstract about the weather. 

and, likewise, ...it's equally as difficult to describe just what that is.  the simplest description i can come up with, 'when your on, your on, when your not, your not'.

basically, regardless of whether we're talking winter or summer phenomenon ...or any phenomenon for that matter, the "patterns" and teleconnectors seem to only guide with perhaps 60% authority; the rest is anti-correlated noise.   BUT, what is pertinent to the point at hand, said noise sometimes guides the entire interval of time.  

another way to look at it is/are those times when you think, 'man, it just can't snow - no matter what' ... or vice versa.  sometimes you're adding goodly seasonal snow totals is a schit pattern...  interesting. 

  It's been enough for a record August and a furnace since mid July. It's just a stagnant pattern that's been basically heat.  The whole country has been heat. All the cold has been way up in nrn Canada. I think it's been impressive how limited cold shots have been. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  It's been enough for a record August and a furnace since mid July. It's just a stagnant pattern that's been basically heat.  The whole country has been heat. All the cold has been way up in nrn Canada. I think it's been impressive how limited cold shots have been. 

right ...eventually, the 'pattern' gets a say I suppose. 

still, we're talking about knocking the head off the potential - it really could if not 'should' have been the hottest f'ck of a summer ever!  but, non-warmistas got unusually and creepily placated and serviced here.   ahahaha

seriously, simple analogy:   in the words of Tom Brady, "..Yeah, we won the game, but we left a lot of points on the field.."

 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right ...eventually, the 'pattern' gets a say I suppose. 

still, we're talking about knocking the head off the potential - it really could if not 'should' have been the hottest f'ck of a summer ever!  but, non-warmistas got unusually and creepily placated and serviced here.   ahahaha

seriously, simple analogy:   in the words of Tom Brady, "..Yeah, we won the game, but we left a lot of points on the field.."

 

 

  I don't know, we had pretty much a week of the most hottest and humid weather this area can support. The positive departures since mid July don't get much higher than that.  There were moments where the biggest 850 plumes got cut off at the pass, but on the other hand, so have the cold shots. Just bounced off New England like a hair follicle on Kevin's head.  So there is that too. The theme could be more in the way of.....all warm all the time. I normally don't defend Kevin, but some in here seem to be delusional to it. It's been warm for sure. Maybe someone's  accurite thermometer at maple sugar shack got to the U40s a few nights. 

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

nice! ... yet another example of why "Long Island" is a just a bad idea in wait of judgement day ... 

boy, how history is riddled with worst-case-scenarios that by shear benefit of temporal logic ...managed to somehow NOT do so 100 years before the invention of "Long Island" - at least not enough.

for that matter, talk about feeling 'chosen' - like, why are we looking at 100 year return rates?   i think the question is more in need than ever for obvious reasons. maybe that's normal - but even so, it underscores the bad idea of "Long Island" - it pretty much became "Long Island" since 1938.  That was relatively modern, too, and thus, how can 'bad idea' actually be like having 'no idea' ?

umm, okay.  it's almost so balk disrespectful you can't really be sympathetic. 

I actually was watching this show about Mega Tsunamis on the science channel some years ago ... the show covered primarily seismology and thrust quakes, like Sumutra, Alaska...landslades and volcanoes, the usual suspects.  But, they did reserve a small segment of the show for storm surges and places like Naragansett Bay or the Bay of Bengal were discussed.  ...both places where the topography/geology are uniquely designed to kill and maim everything living or inanimate with macabre efficiency

... A team of scientist apprarently doing core/mud sampling at the head of Nara Bay said there is evidence of 100 foot over-top silt events/ ordeals in the ancient past.  they think it could be tsunamis - there are faults around the Atlantic Basin capable of thrust. there's also the Canary island scare..?  

but they didn't rule out the possibility of perfect storm scenarios... some kind of new moon on top of rapture... 

granted, the Sci Channel has long diluted it's intellectual property down to deliver a honkathon so plebeian wits can get there fix, so as to keep 'em tuned in ..heh, still, there is some shred of truth in all that.  

 

We briefly talked about this a few weeks ago, but it's been kind of uncanny how the most vulnerable places in the northeast have avoided those devastating tracks of TCs that we saw multiple times from the 1860s through the 1950s before the mega-explosion of coastal development.

 

You could maybe say Sandy pulled a fast one on the NYC area in that unique setup which caused some amazing flooding/surge in areas that don't typically see it and same with some of the areas in LI sound back toward BDR, but relatively speaking it spared the eastern parts of LI and up into the classic surge spots in RI/Buzzards bay, etc...relatively being the key word...it was still bad, but nothing like the type of wrath that could be exerted on them in another '38 or Carol (displaced west a shade maybe) or 1869 or 1944. When that happens, the amount of coastal development that will be destroyed is going to be staggering.

[OceanStWx]

46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

wut?

http://www.hurricane.com/hurricane-season/hurricane-season-1869.php

I was preparing a post that used a similar graphic from the NHC. Go figure you can't find much material to post for a picture from 1869.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

We briefly talked about this a few weeks ago, but it's been kind of uncanny how the most vulnerable places in the northeast have avoided those devastating tracks of TCs that we saw multiple times from the 1860s through the 1950s before the mega-explosion of coastal development.

 

You could maybe say Sandy pulled a fast one on the NYC area in that unique setup which caused some amazing flooding/surge in areas that don't typically see it, but relatively speaking it spared the eastern parts of LI...relatively being the key word...it was still bad, but nothing like the type of wrath that could be exerted on them in another '38 or Carol (displaced west a shade maybe) or 1869 or 1944. When that happens, the amount of coastal development that will be destroyed is going to be staggering.

Huge worry among EMs, the forest development since then is also a mega problem.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Huge worry among EMs, the forest development since then is also a mega problem.

Gypsy moths and drought should help.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

  I don't know, we had pretty much a week of the most hottest and humid weather this area can support. The positive departures since mid July don't get much higher than that.  There were moments where the biggest 850 plumes got cut off at the pass, but on the other hand, so have the cold shots. Just bounced off New England like a hair follicle on Kevin's head.  So there is that too. The theme could be more in the way of.....all warm all the time. I normally don't defend Kevin, but some in here seem to be delusional to it. It's been warm for sure. Maybe someone's  accurite thermometer at maple sugar shack got to the U40s a few nights. 

Just gotta give up. No matter this was a top 5-10 hottest Summer... The cold mongers will never admit it. Just continue to pretend it didn't happen.. Talk about nothing but 70's and 50's all of Sept.. And basically just make things up to make things chilly. Just let  them go. Winter will be here by Jan. Until then .. Seems dry and warm overall 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I was preparing a post that used a similar graphic from the NHC. Go figure you can't find much material to post for a picture from 1869.

oh yea lol I just saw you tweeted that out a couple of minutes ago. Let me see what I can find for pics

[CapturedNature]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I don't know, we had pretty much a week of the most hottest and humid weather this area can support. The positive departures since mid July don't get much higher than that.  There were moments where the biggest 850 plumes got cut off at the pass, but on the other hand, so have the cold shots. Just bounced off New England like a hair follicle on Kevin's head.  So there is that too. The theme could be more in the way of.....all warm all the time. I normally don't defend Kevin, but some in here seem to be delusional to it. It's been warm for sure. Maybe someone's  accurite thermometer at maple sugar shack got to the U40s a few nights. 

It's actually a mercury thermometer from the Brooklyn Thermometer Company.  I don't deny it's been warm and even posted the stats for August and the summer as a whole reflecting that.  However, it was a split season with the first half being BN and the latter half being well AN.  There's nothing wrong with stating facts or putting something in perspective or calling someone out when they make claims that are not true.

[OceanStWx]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I actually was watching this show about Mega Tsunamis on the science channel some years ago ... the show covered primarily seismology and thrust quakes, like Sumutra, Alaska...landslades and volcanoes, the usual suspects.  But, they did reserve a small segment of the show for storm surges and places like Naragansett Bay or the Bay of Bengal were discussed.  ...both places where the topography/geology are uniquely designed to kill and maim everything living or inanimate with macabre efficiency

... A team of scientist apprarently doing core/mud sampling at the head of Nara Bay said there is evidence of 100 foot over-top silt events/ ordeals in the ancient past.  they think it could be tsunamis - there are faults around the Atlantic Basin capable of thrust. there's also the Canary island scare..?  

but they didn't rule out the possibility of perfect storm scenarios... some kind of new moon on top of rapture... 

granted, the Sci Channel has long diluted it's intellectual property down to deliver a honkathon so plebeian wits can get there fix, so as to keep 'em tuned in ..heh, still, there is some shred of truth in all that.  

Narragansett Bay is totally lulled into a false sense of security. You would be amazed at how many people I've talked to that think they are safe from hurricane surge because of the Fox Point barrier. Only they live in Barrington, Bristol, Warwick, etc. If anything the hurricane barrier will only exacerbate flooding to the south by not giving the water a northern outlet. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

It's actually a mercury thermometer from the Brooklyn Thermometer Company.  I don't deny it's been warm and even posted the stats for August and the summer as a whole reflecting that.  However, it was a split season with the first half being BN and the latter half being well AN.  There's nothing wrong with stating facts or putting something in perspective or calling someone out when they make claims that are not true.

That's why I talked about post mid July. First half was much cooler temp and anomaly wise. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

It's actually a mercury thermometer from the Brooklyn Thermometer Company.  I don't deny it's been warm and even posted the stats for August and the summer as a whole reflecting that.  However, it was a split season with the first half being BN and the latter half being well AN.  There's nothing wrong with stating facts or putting something in perspective or calling someone out when they make claims that are not true.

 

For ORH, this summer was tied for 17th hottest. It was warm, but it wasn't that noteworthy. 2010 and 2005 were warmer summers than 2016 for ORH to name ones in recent years. 2012 was a tie.

 

August was notewrothy as it came in tied for 6th hottest.

[CapturedNature]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just gotta give up. No matter this was a top 5-10 hottest Summer... The cold mongers will never admit it. Just continue to pretend it didn't happen.. Talk about nothing but 70's and 50's all of Sept.. And basically just make things up to make things chilly. Just them go. Winter will be here by Jan. Until then .. Seems dry and warm overall 

I happen to prefer cooler weather and posted the fact that this summer ranked #8 for me in terms of warmth just a few days ago so don't pretend that some of us didn't.  You've been calling for heat since March when it was going to be 80s & 90s every day from then on.  You even called for the hottest summer ever in June.  You're still calling for 80s & 90s every day from here on out.  Some of us like to live in realityland and just state facts instead of hyperbole.

[CapturedNature]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's why I talked about post mid July. First half was much cooler temp and anomaly wise. 

I think the fact that as a whole the summer came out as warm as it did speaks volumes about the + anomalies that the latter half had.  I mentioned in my summer summary that I only had two nights in the 40s in July and August and I should have had more.  We just haven't had many cool nights.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Lots of 80s with higher humidity to me. 

To be honest I haven't looked much at SNE, it's warm but I bet that shakes out with a ton of 70s in the next 10-14 days here.

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just gotta give up. No matter this was a top 5-10 hottest Summer... The cold mongers will never admit it. Just continue to pretend it didn't happen.. Talk about nothing but 70's and 50's all of Sept.. And basically just make things up to make things chilly. Just let  them go. Winter will be here by Jan. Until then .. Seems dry and warm overall 

This was not a top 5-10 hottest summer for all....remember June/July were below normal from here to Tamarack at least, so it's possible folks may have different opinions.

What do you want to bet I see more 70s/50s over the next two weeks than anything else as I'm assuming you are referencing my post?   Heady's or Treehouse?  

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

For ORH, this summer was tied for 17th hottest. It was warm, but it wasn't that noteworthy. 2010 and 2005 were warmer summers than 2016 for ORH to name ones in recent years. 2012 was a tie.

 

August was notewrothy as it came in tied for 6th hottest.

Stop bringing facts!

June and July middle of the road, August top 5 for heat is how it'd shake out up here.   August was very hot.