Fall+Banter

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 days now since TAN went offline.  

[OceanStWx]

54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Jeez really? That would be a shame. I wonder if the notoriety of the ensemble can spark some money headed their way. I really like it. Dammit, that would suck.

NCAR just presented at NROW but the funding didn't come up. But from what I've heard they only had a year of funding (so roughly end of March 2017).

I would gladly can a GFS run to keep it around. But I know they aren't the same funding pot.

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

NCAR just presented at NROW but the funding didn't come up. But from what I've heard they only had a year of funding (so roughly end of March 2017).

I would gladly can a GFS run to keep it around. But I know they aren't the same funding pot.

  

[CapturedNature]

In October I was 1.33" below normal but did manage 3.20", better than September's 0.99".  YTD I'm running about 10" below normal but I do need to qualify that I have received almost 30" of rain so it's not like it's been dry here, just relatively so.

[OceanStWx]

Brian Colle of Stony Brook just did an ensemble talk. Good stuff.

Track verification: NCEP wins days 1-2, EPS 3-6, no clear winner beyond. But miss rates (when no ensemble member falls within the analysis) are bad with NCEP and CMC. EPS has a SW bias days 2-3, NCEP/CMC has a NE bias at all ranges.

Ensembles are also typically are under dispersed (5-10% fall outside the analysis). And they are also too weak in the medium range, which we know from averaging in mean fields. 

What was interesting was that the total ensemble mean was only good to about 2 days, after that more often a cluster of ensemble members performs best.

[powderfreak]

Mmmm donuts.  Some steady moderate to heavy rain but must be snowing up at like 7kft.

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Brian Colle of Stony Brook just did an ensemble talk. Good stuff.

Track verification: NCEP wins days 1-2, EPS 3-6, no clear winner beyond. But miss rates (when no ensemble member falls within the analysis) are bad with NCEP and CMC. EPS has a SW bias days 2-3, NCEP/CMC has a NE bias at all ranges.

Ensembles are also typically are under dispersed (5-10% fall outside the analysis). And they are also too weak in the medium range, which we know from averaging in mean fields. 

What was interesting was that the total ensemble mean was only good to about 2 days, after that more often a cluster of ensemble members performs best.

I can buy that for sure.  I have a question though. Are ensembles a good thing to use inside 2 days? That's usually when the baton is passed to the operational models which normally are better with the details at that time.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I can buy that for sure.  I have a question though. Are ensembles a good thing to use inside 2 days? That's usually when the baton is passed to the operational models which normally are better with the details at that time.

I think it depends. Are we looking at broad scale features (track, QPF axis, etc)? Or are we looking for small scale (QPF/trod/SLP magnitude)?

I mean day 1 I usually think crap or get off the pot, start analyzing obs to adjust the forecast. But 48 hours there is still some utility. 

It would also figure that the GEFS wins the verification when it becomes less useful. 

[klw]

Nice steady rain over here.  We dent.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think it depends. Are we looking at broad scale features (track, QPF axis, etc)? Or are we looking for small scale (QPF/trod/SLP magnitude)?

I mean day 1 I usually think crap or get off the pot, start analyzing obs to adjust the forecast. But 48 hours there is still some utility. 

It would also figure that the GEFS wins the verification when it becomes less useful. 

Maybe right at 48hrs? But inside that, I think the op runs do a decent job.  For me on the aviation side, I'm starting to try and hone in on details if there is a large event, but obviously knowing that what I see or brief on, may not happen that way. There is the uncertainty aspect that needs to be communicated.  We have a day 2-5 risk product for various hubs. Although I  don't do this as part of my job...I know where may money is at that time.

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe right at 48hrs? But inside that, I think the op runs do a decent job.  For me on the aviation side, I'm starting to try and hone in on details if there is a large event, but obviously knowing that what I see or brief on, may not happen that way. There is the uncertainty aspect that needs to be communicated.  We have a day 2-5 risk product for various hubs. Although I  don't do this as part of my job...I know where may money is at that time.

Clearly uncertainty is where the ensembles provide real value. If you have an 80 member ensemble all showing sub-freezing temps, you're pretty confident it'll be cold. But if you have a bimodal distribution of 20 or 50 then you know there is high uncertainty.

[dryslot]

+RN here and 46°F

 

[OceanStWx]

By the way, the NYS Mesonet will be fun to play around with.

They have some sweet data already, with LIDAR and profilers to come.

They have a 9 m thermometer to go along with the standard 2 m. You can see how overnight the 9 m temp stays nice a warm as the inversion starts closer to the ground.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Not a single drop of rain out of this with 0.75" originally forecast for Enfield.

[CoastalWx]

Just mixed out and hit my high. 64.8

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Clearly uncertainty is where the ensembles provide real value. If you have an 80 member ensemble all showing sub-freezing temps, you're pretty confident it'll be cold. But if you have a bimodal distribution of 20 or 50 then you know there is high uncertainty.

Yeah it just depends on the need for whatever you do. Certainly if the euro ensemble was wetter than the op at he 48, it's an eye raiser. See firehose storm of March 2013.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it just depends on the need for whatever you do. Certainly if the euro ensemble was wetter than the op at he 48, it's an eye raiser. See firehose storm of March 2013.

I hate those games haha.  There's other times when the ensembles are wetter and fail to the OP.  I feel like we see that more on the western edge of QPF in winter though more from ensembles being more watered down and widespread.  I almost always think the ensembles are wetter on average or maybe it's just a function of them being more widespread with the goods than OP runs.

All ancedotal though and from a western edge perspective the past several winters.

[wxeyeNH]

I have a general question that maybe someone might know the answer to.  We have a new large wind turbine project in our area.  23 four hundred foot turbines.  It has actually been online now for 2 years.  They are reporting that the wind resource data indicates that it is producing 6% less power than forecasted.  They hoped that average yearly wind would pickup over the next couple of years.  Rainfall varies greatly year to year but does wind?  If you take and compare average wind over the course of the year how much does it flucuate.  I would guess much less than rainfall but perhaps a stormier pattern over a winter would change year to year differences.  Any thoughts?

[Hoth]

Ryan loves his new mobile radar. Maybe he'll roll up to a gtg in it? Put some spinners on the wheels?

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I hate those games haha.  There's other times when the ensembles are wetter and fail to the OP.  I feel like we see that more on the western edge of QPF in winter though more from ensembles being more watered down and widespread.  I almost always think the ensembles are wetter on average or maybe it's just a function of them being more widespread with the goods than OP runs.

All ancedotal though and from a western edge perspective the past several winters.

Oh yeah. It won't always show the finite features like a sharp western cutoff. But in March 2013, it had better 700-500 inflow and as a result better QPF. That's a bit different than a western edge cutoff. It was a better signal for the Synoptics to produce heavy QPF compared to op runs.

Every situation is different. I'm just throwing out examples. 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh yeah. It won't always show the finite features like a sharp western cutoff. But in March 2013, it had better 700-500 inflow and as a result better QPF. That's a bit different than a western edge cutoff. It was a better signal for the Synoptics to produce heavy QPF compared to op runs.

Every situation is different. I'm just throwing out examples. 

Oh yeah for sure, wasn't trying to contradict, just that was the first thing that came to mind.

Regarding the ensembles, does anyone remember last winter it seemed like the EPS would be a bit different from the OP but wouldn't jump around like the ECM OP.  It seemed like it's own "model" per se.  Then there was the GFS and GEFS.  Those two things seemed to mirror each other and the GEFS would jump around every 6 hours with the OP...they almost seemed useless at times because if the OP goes north, so did the ensembles.  Then six hours later the OP goes south and so do the GEFS. 

I just remember discussion about the EPS being more independent of the OP than the GEFS is with the GFS...and less likely to have rapid changes every run.  

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I have a general question that maybe someone might know the answer to.  We have a new large wind turbine project in our area.  23 four hundred foot turbines.  It has actually been online now for 2 years.  They are reporting that the wind resource data indicates that it is producing 6% less power than forecasted.  They hoped that average yearly wind would pickup over the next couple of years.  Rainfall varies greatly year to year but does wind?  If you take and compare average wind over the course of the year how much does it flucuate.  I would guess much less than rainfall but perhaps a stormier pattern over a winter would change year to year differences.  Any thoughts?

I assume wind fluctuates too, but I can't say I ever looked at year to year fluctuations. It also depends on what the best direction is for wind at a certain locale. If there lacks a good pattern for wind to perform well in this area, then I would expect the wind Velocity would be down as well. Those patterns will oscillate. 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Oh yeah for sure, wasn't trying to contradict, just that was the first thing that came to mind.

Regarding the ensembles, does anyone remember last winter it seemed like the EPS would be a bit different from the OP but wouldn't jump around like the ECM OP.  It seemed like it's own "model" per se.  Then there was the GFS and GEFS.  Those two things seemed to mirror each other and the GEFS would jump around every 6 hours with the OP...they almost seemed useless at times because if the OP goes north, so did the ensembles.  Then six hours later the OP goes south and so do the GEFS. 

I just remember discussion about the EPS being more independent of the OP than the GEFS is with the GFS...and less likely to have rapid changes every run.  

I do remember that. That's funny you say that. I feel like the euro ensemble follows the op behavior lol.  Perhaps not in the same exact manor, but I have noticed that the ensembles mimic the op behavior.  Note that I'm talking more from an overall pattern look. I don't mean to reference specific things like storm behavior or track. 

[OceanStWx]

4 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I have a general question that maybe someone might know the answer to.  We have a new large wind turbine project in our area.  23 four hundred foot turbines.  It has actually been online now for 2 years.  They are reporting that the wind resource data indicates that it is producing 6% less power than forecasted.  They hoped that average yearly wind would pickup over the next couple of years.  Rainfall varies greatly year to year but does wind?  If you take and compare average wind over the course of the year how much does it flucuate.  I would guess much less than rainfall but perhaps a stormier pattern over a winter would change year to year differences.  Any thoughts?

Take a peek through MWN monthly F6 data to see how it varies. Just a quick look at the last couple of January average winds show it varying from 37 mph to 52 for instance.

[OceanStWx]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I hate those games haha.  There's other times when the ensembles are wetter and fail to the OP.  I feel like we see that more on the western edge of QPF in winter though more from ensembles being more watered down and widespread.  I almost always think the ensembles are wetter on average or maybe it's just a function of them being more widespread with the goods than OP runs.

All ancedotal though and from a western edge perspective the past several winters.

Yeah I would maybe not say wetter, but broader with QPF. I think more often than not the deterministic runs will have higher absolute max QPF, but ensembles will spread it out across more of the area.

[wxeyeNH]

Thanks guys for responding to my average yearly wind question.   The big wind project was very controversial up here.  Now after 2 years they say the wind resource is lower than expected but hopefully will pick up.  There is another big project in the drawing boards and people are really against it now that they can see how visually intrusive the turbines are over a vast area.  So I was curious if average yearly wind varies.  Of course one month (like January)  on top of Mount Washington would vary year to year depending on how active a pattern there was.  Over a 12 month period especially at a lower elevation I would guess it would even out, more so than precip.  It's just hard to find data on this sort of thing.

[tamarack]

On ‎11‎/‎2‎/‎2016 at 3:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Is that largely what species I have here  , based on those pics above? 

That would be my guess.  In addition to the big acorns, Northern red retains relatively smooth bark (compared to other oaks) to a larger diameter - 12" or more on fast growers like yard trees with little competition for sunlight - than any other oak.

Apologies for delayed response.  Family visiting, six active grandkids, not much time for browsing.  Visited the Maine State Museum yesterday (wx ideal for such) and I highly recommend it.  Entry fee is modest, four floors of displays, and there was enough to keep kids age 3 (later this month) to 10 fully engaged.  The 1-yr-old had a couple nice naps on daddy's back.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That would be my guess.  In addition to the big acorns, Northern red retains relatively smooth bark (compared to other oaks) to a larger diameter - 12" or more on fast growers like yard trees with little competition for sunlight - than any other oak.

Apologies for delayed response.  Family visiting, six active grandkids, not much time for browsing.  Visited the Maine State Museum yesterday (wx ideal for such) and I highly recommend it.  Entry fee is modest, four floors of displays, and there was enough to keep kids age 3 (later this month) to 10 fully engaged.  The 1-yr-old had a couple nice naps on daddy's back.

I think i last saw the museum on a class trip back in the 60's, I bet a lot has changed since then................

[tamarack]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think i last saw the museum on a class trip back in the 60's, I bet a lot has changed since then................

Did they have the locked-antlers moose pair then?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Did they have the locked-antlers moose pair then?

I don't believe so as i would have remembered, That must have been awesome to see