Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That pic was from mid Oct No Kev Oct 30th, says it in the thread and the metadata says Oct 30th too. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 Your lawn looked better last year though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Your lawn looked better last year though Drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Drought Not dire, we improve. CT wx TV stations hype FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Interesting tidbit about WPC and the snow probability graphics that BOX, GYX, and others are offering in the winter: of the 70 pieces of guidance, 26 are the SREF members. They were kept mostly because they perform well in mesoscale events in the Great Lakes. Another example of how one solution doesn't always work for all. We've discussed at length on here how the SREF gradually got calibrated more for the meso than synoptic (focus on severe over winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Interesting tidbit about WPC and the snow probability graphics that BOX, GYX, and others are offering in the winter: of the 70 pieces of guidance, 26 are the SREF members. They were kept mostly because they perform well in mesoscale events in the Great Lakes. Another example of how one solution doesn't always work for all. We've discussed at length on here how the SREF gradually got calibrated more for the meso than synoptic (focus on severe over winter). I'm still a big fan of one core with multiple members. I think right now where we are technology wise....that is the way to go. Having two cores just seems to invite too many unrealistic solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Maybe it helps convection, but the NCAR ensemble seems to do well, and that is one ARW core with 10 members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not dire, we improve. CT wx TV stations hype FTL Tv stations said drought improved from that one epic rain band that hit towns where few live as the map depicts in 2 counties and TBH your area hasn't been dry or in drought.The majority of the state continues to worsen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tv stations said drought improved from that one epic rain band that hit towns where few live as the map depicts in 2 counties and TBH your area hasn't been dry or in drought.The majority of the state continues to worsen. 8 plus inches of rain in OCT is not one epic rain band and sw Ct has had a lot of rain too. These maps are very very odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 A loft of CT near Kevin and west got the shaft though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 9 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Who provides the Indians their weather forecasts? Throwing the tarp on to start extras for a passing shower when there is an MCS on the way? That first cell that went thru look to be equal to the one they threw the tarp down on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm still a big fan of one core with multiple members. I think right now where we are technology wise....that is the way to go. Having two cores just seems to invite too many unrealistic solutions. And then probabilities of an outcome are truly probabilities because you only have one core. Instead of possibly being contaminated by some rogue model physics of one core. If we really are moving towards more probabilistic forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe it helps convection, but the NCAR ensemble seems to do well, and that is one ARW core with 10 members. It has huge use across Northeast WFOs from what I know. Can't speak for the rest of the country but I imagine it's similar. Unfortunately, NCAR's funding for running the model is set to run out soon. It went from getting support to be run twice a day to disappearing altogether in less than a year. It would be a real shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 8 plus inches of rain in OCT is not one epic rain band and sw Ct has had a lot of rain too. These maps are very very odd Most of that 8 inches in that one small area fell in that one rain event. 80% of the state was BN for rain in Oct.. so I'm not sure what you're arguing. Far ECT has been wet all summer. We don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A loft of CT near Kevin and west got the shaft though. Yep sure did but SW Ct and ECT and the shore did not, if happens in HFD it happens everywhere, meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It has huge use across Northeast WFOs from what I know. Can't speak for the rest of the country but I imagine it's similar. Unfortunately, NCAR's funding for running the model is set to run out soon. It went from getting support to be run twice a day to disappearing altogether in less than a year. It would be a real shame. Jeez really? That would be a shame. I wonder if the notoriety of the ensemble can spark some money headed their way. I really like it. Dammit, that would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Most of that 8 inches in that one small area fell in that one rain event. 80% of the state was BN for rain in Oct.. so I'm not sure what you're arguing. Far ECT has been wet all summer. We don't live there. so so glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Most of that 8 inches in that one small area fell in that one rain event. 80% of the state was BN for rain in Oct.. so I'm not sure what you're arguing. Far ECT has been wet all summer. We don't live there. when your 300 ft well runs out stop by I will fill your water jugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yep sure did but SW Ct and ECT and the shore did not, if happens in HFD it happens everywhere, meh Yeah because Litchfield, Fairfield, New Haven, and Tolland Counties are Hartford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah because Litchfield, Fairfield, New Haven, and Tolland Counties are Hartford Are you worried, I mean very worried? Stop washing your hands 35 times a day, don't wash the truck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Where is the graphic from HRAP showing QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 Meh RESERVOIR LEVELS: The Quabbin Reservoir, the largest water supply source for 47 communities in the Metro Boston area, is currently at 80.6% of its 412 billion-gallon maximum capacity. The 65 billion-gallon Wachusett Reservoir is 91.1% full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where is the graphic from HRAP showing QPF? I'll find it. He's saying most of the state got 6-8" of rain in Oct it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 Russia, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'll find it. He's saying most of the state got 6-8" of rain in Oct it seems Reading comprehension for the loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where is the graphic from HRAP showing QPF? AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where is the graphic from HRAP showing QPF? some win and some lose, we win and glad we don't live there, 22% reduction in CT alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 Station Number Station Name Daily Precip Sum in.6 Multi-Day Precip in. Total Precip in. Daily Snow Sum in. # of Reports Latitude Longitude Multi-Day Overlap Warning CT-NL-6 New London 1.0 NNW 8.19 8.19 0.0 32 41.34298 72.10315 CT-NL-8 Uncasville-Oxoboxo Valley 1.6 ENE 7.98 7.98 0.0 32 41.455502 72.097176 CT-WN-8 Moosup 1.7 NE 7.64 7.64 0.0 32 41.731808 71.846671 CT-NL-22 Central Waterford 2.7 SSW 7.34 7.34 0.0 32 41.3085 72.1462 CT-NL-10 Norwich 2.5 NNE 7.06 7.06 0.0 32 41.584855 72.076749 CT-WN-4 East Killingly 1.3 SW 6.94 6.94 0.0 32 41.8381339 71.8391374 CT-WN-6 Dayville 2.0 ENE 6.83 6.83 0.0 32 41.85585 71.851662 CT-NL-21 Griswold 0.9 N 6.65 6.65 0.0 31 41.608825 71.930861 CT-NL-17 Waterford 2.2 N 6.63 1.98 8.61 0.0 28 41.376831 72.127681 CT-WN-2 North Grosvenor Dale 1.7 SSE 6.59 6.59 0.0 28 41.962273 71.887001 CT-NL-23 Mystic 1.4 W 6.55 6.55 0.0 32 41.3548393249512 71.9789657592773 CT-NL-7 Uncasville-Oxoboxo Valley 5.6 W 6.39 6.39 0.0 32 41.437346 72.232349 CT-WN-11 Scotland 2.3 SSW 6.10 6.10 0.0 32 41.667288 72.09986 CT-MD-11 Westbrook Center 1.5 NE 5.72 5.72 0.0 32 41.2977 72.42755 CT-NL-18 Stonington 0.5 NNE 5.60 5.60 0.0 30 41.340111 71.899639 CT-TL-4 Mansfield Center 1.9 SW 5.55 5.55 0.0 32 41.741399 72.217436 CT-NH-21 East Haven 3.5 SSW 5.48 5.48 0.0 31 41.248236 72.888156 CT-MD-5 Westbrook Center 1.1 N 5.47 0.45 5.92 0.0 28 41.2965 72.44133333 CT-NH-16 Milford 1.8 E 4.56 4.56 0.0 32 41.2242279052734 73.0273895263672 CT-NL-24 Stonington 1.4 NNW 4.56 4.56 0.0 12 41.3536 71.9116 CT-WN-10 South Windham 1.3 NNE 4.52 1.34 5.86 0.0 31 41.701831 72.17651 CT-FR-35 Darien 1.8 ENE 4.49 4.49 0.0 32 41.062171 73.44909 CT-FR-37 Stamford 0.4 WNW 4.43 4.43 0.0 32 41.098001 73.559962 CT-FR-20 Westport 2.5 ENE 4.41 4.41 0.0 31 41.1328 73.3003 CT-NL-19 Mystic 0.9 W 4.40 2.06 6.46 0.0 26 41.3584518432617 71.9693374633789 CT-MD-2 Portland 0.9 S 4.28 4.28 0.0 32 41.570874 72.626044 CT-TL-18 Hebron 5.3 NW 4.17 4.17 0.0 32 41.7196 72.4312 CT-FR-3 New Canaan 1.9 ENE 4.01 4.01 0.0 32 41.148602 73.459089 CT-FR-25 Norwalk 2.9 NNW 3.81 3.81 0.0 32 41.130347 73.448285 CT-FR-39 Stamford 4.2 S 3.56 0.52 4.08 0.0 21 41.0377883911133 73.5681762695313 CT-HR-40 Glastonbury Center 4.0 ENE 3.56 3.56 0.0 32 41.7229 72.5284 CT-NH-29 Hamden 3.0 WSW 3.56 3.56 0.0 32 41.365163 72.955572 CT-NH-22 Prospect 0.5 SW 3.55 3.55 0.0 32 41.497343480587 72.9860588908196 CT-FR-29 Ridgefield 1.9 SSE 3.46 3.46 0.0 32 41.247598 73.487427 CT-FR-32 Monroe 0.8 W 3.34 0.00 3.34 0.0 30 41.334397 73.22345 CT-TL-14 Storrs 1.5 SW 3.21 0.80 4.01 0.0 28 41.79113889 72.27802778 CT-FR-42 Monroe 0.1 SE 3.20 3.20 0.0 32 41.331866 73.205971 CT-FR-23 Shelton 1.3 W 3.14 3.14 0.1 32 41.305334 73.16345 CT-NH-26 Prospect 1.5 NW 3.07 3.07 1.3 32 41.518844 72.997393 CT-HR-22 East Hartford 1.3 E 3.04 3.04 0.2 32 41.7571630328894 72.5916481018066 CT-FR-43 Bethel 0.5 E 3.02 3.02 0.0 32 41.37032 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 6.30" last 30 days here and more on the way today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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