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Fall+Banter

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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Bug season is apparently back.  Maybe Tamarack knows more about this, but I've never seen anything like this up on the mountain.  Something obviously hatched in some incredible numbers... millions and millions of bugs in these thick swarms hovering around the summit of Spruce Peak today.

Wiz just passed out in the hot tub.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Interesting meso scale thing here today. The psuedo warm front made it about a few miles from here as evident on radar earlier. It's not as apparent now. Skies cleared with the stratocumulus streaming in from the southeast as winds a couple of thousand feet below were NE. It felt pretty summery to the south with those dews. Now, not sure if there is a push back south...but clouds lowered considerable and temp in back in U60s. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Sheet drizzle here

65.9F for the high and 0.15" of mist

 

This would have been one of those nice easterly flow days in winter where the ORH hills pick up an inch or two of snow. They don't happen every winter, but usually several times per decade.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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This would have been one of those nice easterly flow days in winter where the ORH hills pick up an inch or two of snow. They don't happen every winter, but usually several times per decade.

Yeah you can tell on the temp map where the little easterly flow upslope cooling is helping the most.  You can see the ORH Hills axis.

Crazy how close Blizzy's "roast" is but Hermine is putting a cap on that from the Greens/Taconics eastward, and then really from the Monadnocks/ORH Hills eastward.

ORH is 66/64...while SLK is 84/39...haha. 

METAR KORH 062100Z AUTO 03009KT 1/2SM -RA FG OVC002 19/18 A3010

METAR KSLK 062050Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 29/04 A3010

temp.ne-large.png

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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You sure did! Head up man . You'll get the next one 

http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/2016/09/05/hermine-what-an-odd-storm/

Sounds like he's talking about your style in that post:

" From the beginning the messaging with Hermine coming from some places has been only “worst case scenario” and not what the most likely scenario was. Getting people to prepare for a worst case scenario is important but we aren’t doing ourselves any good only talking about a scenario that has a 10% chance of occurring."

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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In all seriousness I had no idea the NWS had put up such strongly worded statements for this storm. That's definitely a little over the top for what most guidance showed.

Ryan brings up an excellent point about messaging. The NHC forecast is always a reasonable worst case scenario (i.e. 10% chance of occurring) but a WFO forecast is always most likely. Until we have tropical headlines, which then become reasonable worst case. So I can see how the messaging gets muddied. Likewise, Ryan isn't obligated to change his forecast because the NHC is saying one thing, he's really only obligated to broadcast the headlines. He's focused on getting the most likely forecast too. 

So even though both forecasts may have been "right" based on most likely and the 10% exceedence threshold, to the public it sounds like we're all out to lunch.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Ryan brings up an excellent point about messaging. The NHC forecast is always a reasonable worst case scenario (i.e. 10% chance of occurring) but a WFO forecast is always most likely. Until we have tropical headlines, which then become reasonable worst case. So I can see how the messaging gets muddied. Likewise, Ryan isn't obligated to change his forecast because the NHC is saying one thing, he's really only obligated to broadcast the headlines. He's focused on getting the most likely forecast too. 

So even though both forecasts may have been "right" based on most likely and the 10% exceedence threshold, to the public it sounds like we're all out to lunch.

Good points.  Who issues those local impact statements?  Is that the NHC or local offices?  

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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I asked this in the winter thread, just wondering if anybody knows how to have the names show up on the posts people quote?  Take for example  powderfreaks post above mine, he quoted somebody, and the posters name is not on the quote.  Just wondering if anybody knows the way to turn that function on..if it's even possible???  Thank you for any help anybody can give.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Guys how do you get the quoted post in a reply  to have the posters name on it?  I'm not liking this updated website so far! All the posts on this page that are quoted, just have a tiny arrow next to them, instead of the posters name. Is there a way to get the name next to the quoted post? 

The post is below the arrow.

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snowman21

snowman21

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In all seriousness I had no idea the NWS had put up such strongly worded statements for this storm. That's definitely a little over the top for what most guidance showed.

It did look kind of silly seeing the little tropical storm icon as my forecast for four days straight. The forecasts on the point and click while we had the tropical storm warning going read something like mostly sunny with tropical storm conditions possible. It's confusing to your average person reading something like that. Most people associate tropical systems with heavy rain/wind/flooding, but I don't think the chance of rain was ever higher than 40% in any forecast period here, so if there's little risk of heavy rain/flash flooding, and the winds and coastal flooding are marginal or low end risks, tropical storm warning is probably not the best fit given how the public perceives that kind of warning.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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The post is below the arrow.

I realize that, but the quoted post doesn't have the name of the poster on it.  On the old site if you quoted a persons post, there username would be on it.  But not here(at least not on my device/computer.  Is there an adjustment to allow that?  Or is the quote only there without the username?? 

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ice1972

ice1972

Posted
Posted
 

I asked this in the winter thread, just wondering if anybody knows how to have the names show up on the posts people quote?  Take for example  powderfreaks post above mine, he quoted somebody, and the posters name is not on the quote.  Just wondering if anybody knows the way to turn that function on..if it's even possible???  Thank you for any help anybody can give.

Yep this is a problem and should be looked at....

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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Good points.  Who issues those local impact statements?  Is that the NHC or local offices?  

Local offices issue those, but much of the wording is pre-canned statements. I mean it makes sense for places in the SE, that aren't used to windy, rainy days. It's a hazard of impact based products, because impacts aren't the same everywhere in the country.

Just wait until we're doing impact statements in winter products.

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