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Fall+Banter


Ginx snewx

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3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I never use/trust that model.  What's the Euro show?  I don't have access to it.

monster se ridge re-asserts its self shortly after a middle range taste of autumn.  essentially... boring, as we oscillate between above to normal to above...  It might nudge below in the middle there in that solution - particularly at night.  first widespread frost likely registered...

but it's probably moot as the model is looking a tad over amplified as usual.  

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Just now, dendrite said:

Looks pretty wet tomorrow. Good luck wiping out this drought in one event anyways. If we can just get back to a normal precip pattern going forward I'd be thrilled.

Yeah even an Irene-in-Vermont scenario happening in SNE wouldn't erase the drought.  Just need to get back into a normal precip pattern and see if some ground can be made up this fall.  Fall seems to have a lot of variability for precipitation, though that may just be ancedotal.  Seems like its either really wet or really dry and boring.  Some Octobers you get a few big QPF nor'easters or synoptic systems, other Octobers seem to just be high pressure and ridging all month.

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah even an Irene-in-Vermont scenario happening in SNE wouldn't erase the drought.  Just need to get back into a normal precip pattern and see if some ground can be made up this fall.  Fall seems to have a lot of variability for precipitation, though that may just be ancedotal.  Seems like its either really wet or really dry and boring.  Some Octobers you get a few big QPF nor'easters or synoptic systems, other Octobers seem to just be high pressure and ridging all month.

We had one in 2014. 4-6" of rain. 

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large area containing heavier showers/convective elements through mid PA and NYS ... heading ENE... it's going to be interesting to see how the atmosphere engineers THIS miss -

 

also, interesting that the model with the most typical polarward bias has Karl moving to the Bahamas

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