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Hurricane Hermine


Typhoon Tip

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25 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z nam closer and stronger models really have no idea!

well ... the long awaited 'hook' back toward the coast has apparently begun judging by the last 2 hours of high resolution looping of satellite. 

question  now becomes, how far backward does it come, and in what form. 

the asymmetric phase transition from Hermine has been a chaotic mess.  Long before it even began to intermingle with the cold core trough, it was probably becoming somewhat baroclinic outside of it's core, due to interaction with land and pulling continental dry (thus, thermodynamically colder air) off the continent as it escape back to sea.  

Then, as the trough subsumed over the area ... huge shear arrived over top, which stripped away what was left of the mid/U/A core components almost if not entirely completely off... annihilated it as any kind of classical system.  However, during all that ... the lowest level gyre remained in tact during yesterday, overnight; if analyzing just that lower level feature's thermal layout it probably was/is barotropic in nature.  

earlier this morning... some new convection erupted closer to the centroid axis again... but has since stripped off again, exposing a broad strata swirl.  And so yet again the system has taken on the 'look' of a mid latitude cyclone ... I suspect we probably are left with some sort of cut-off hybrid deal going on out there.  

The spectrum of thermodynamic engines that power these cyclones, "weather" pure tropical or pure cold core, is really a smooth gradient.   As environmental variables support more and less, in time, a given system dances along the spectrum.   ...think blue end and red end ... this guy is sort of yellow right now, but part in parcel with the lower level probably more orange/red and while the mid-level's pretty green.  

anyway, it's now moving away from the Gulf Stream and is passing over the interface waters SE of LI, and it won't take long to upwell and normalize ... so we probably have lost any hope of this getting stacked and properly closer to the red end of things.    

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Wind increasing here on FI. I've got about 5 miles of water to my north and my place is about 40 feet off the deck. Would guess 25 sustained with some solid gusts to 35-40 at the moment. Still hoping for some rain this afternoon. Also, best waves I've personally seen out here since Bill on the south side of the island. Sure beats endless talk of heat and drought.

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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Even if Herman comes west it's weakening greatly, moving over cold water , and winding down. Sunny, breezy should rule the roost this afternoon away from Cape

Overcast here and windy.  

First rain shower of Hermain just rotating through.   Street and yard getting filled with leaves and small dead twigs.  Latest gust was 37. 

Surf along Misquamicut and Weekapaug beaches coming in groups of 5 to 8 swells every 2 to 3 minutes.  Wave heights about 6 to 10 feet.  

Lots of surfers and onlookers. 

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