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Hurricane Hermine

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

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Because the sytem has been continuing to move east the NAM starts the loop further out so it actually lessens the impact of NJ and creates more of an impact on CC.  Still no convection near the center so it looks like crap to me this AM.  Should start to fire later, its watch and see.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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problem with these back in scenarios is that the models have to be pretty damn precise about all parameters out in time.  you got no wiggle room there.  

back-ins tend to have razor tight cut off scenarios.  i've actually seen brilliant sunset rays of shine cutting underneath still raining cloud shields by ocean systems that back in and only clipped the coastal plain ... raining hard at Logan, with beautiful sunset in Natick.  you go from moderate rain, to just cloud, to open sky in about 20 miles of distance in those scenarios. 

point being... everything being modeled out in time has to be "that" precise to be correct in determining where the cyclone's terminus yields back to open air; the models, even at short ranges, still offer up margins for error that are completely fair game at those levels of precision.  

in other words, ... it could strengthen some, stall... move back NW, and still miss bringing heavier QPF and wind by oooh so close a margin, and still the models would have to be considered as doing a good job in that scenario.  

i remember a winter storm like that, ...circa earl February 1997 or so... not much indication for an event in the middle ranges leading, but as the short range come into vision the models started dropping a piece of polar cut-off dynamics into NE, at the same time a fledgling wave moved off the lower mid Atlantic region.  the cut-off 'captured' the wave, and bombed with like 12 or 18 hours model lead, and the NAM...well, ETA at the time, pretty much shut down eastern MA and RI with a blizzard... sending NWS reeling and scrambling.  Winter warnings went up, blizzard for the Cape..etc, but what actually happened was a blizzard on the Cape and pretty much nothing much happened at all NW of the Canal.  actually ... perhaps moderate impact to about BOS-ORH line...  

 

 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

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I am wondering as this systems backs NW and as the high moves east if we are going to see that really clear tropical air being wrapped around the whole circulation. 

Meanwhile yesterday on the news they were showing a mass exodus of people leaving the beaches in the Mid Atlantic.  Turns out today is a really nice day.  Partly cloudy, fast moving Cu on a brisk NE flow and temps in the mid 70's.  Water is too rough but really an enjoyable day at the beach up and down the coast.  Picture below is the Ocean City MD boardwalk at noon.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

problem with these back in scenarios is that the models have to be pretty damn precise about all parameters out in time.  you got no wiggle room there.  

back-ins tend to have razor tight cut off scenarios.  i've actually seen brilliant sunset rays of shine cutting underneath still raining cloud shields by ocean systems that back in and only clipped the coastal plain ... raining hard at Logan, with beautiful sunset in Natick.  you go from moderate rain, to just cloud, to open sky in about 20 miles of distance in those scenarios. 

point being... everything being modeled out in time has to be "that" precise to be correct in determining where the cyclone's terminus yields back to open air; the models, even at short ranges, still offer up margins for error that are completely fair game at those levels of precision.  

in other words, ... it could strengthen some, stall... move back NW, and still miss bringing heavier QPF and wind by oooh so close a margin, and still the models would have to be considered as doing a good job in that scenario.  

i remember a winter storm like that, ...circa earl February 1997 or so... not much indication for an event in the middle ranges leading, but as the short range come into vision the models started dropping a piece of polar cut-off dynamics into NE, at the same time a fledgling wave moved off the lower mid Atlantic region.  the cut-off 'captured' the wave, and bombed with like 12 or 18 hours model lead, and the NAM...well, ETA at the time, pretty much shut down eastern MA and RI with a blizzard... sending NWS reeling and scrambling.  Winter warnings went up, blizzard for the Cape..etc, but what actually happened was a blizzard on the Cape and pretty much nothing much happened at all NW of the Canal.  actually ... perhaps moderate impact to about BOS-ORH line...  

 

 

I think it was February 1999...I got 5".

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BrianW

BrianW

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Posted

Boston's thoughts. Seems they aren't ready to write it off just yet.

  

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

2 PM Update...

Other than gusty northeast winds up to 35 mph over the Cape and
Islands...pleasant weather being observed across southern New
England with temps in the 70s to near 80 inland. Previous forecast
captures this well so no major changes planned with this update.

12z model guidance ... models have trended farther north and west
tracking Hermine...even the new 12z EC. 12z RGEM appears on the
southwest edge of the envelope while the NAM is the farthestnorth.
UKMET and GFS are clustered in the middle of the pack. 00z EPS and
12z GEFS continue to show large spread. Given the complex
interaction between the baroclinic mid level trough over Hermine
now and it`s low level tropical circulation along with proximity
to the Gulf Stream all suggest high uncertainty in track and
intensification of Hermine thru Wed. Thus best course of action is
to follow a model blend which is very close to a UKMET/GFS
solution. Will elaborate more after coordination with NHC around 4
pm.
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it was February 1999...I got 5".

perhaps ...yeah.

it was an epic short duration jerk off is what it was.  if you're  winter storm monger like myself... amid a boring pattern as it was, that was like whaaat...  9 hours later, whaaat going the other direction.  

oh by the way, drive by face smack - 

it wasn't NWS' fault either.  i mean ..what are they supposed to do...  I remember reading Drag's AFD where he had written, "THIS IS GOING TO BE A NASTY STORM!" when the day before there was nothing.  

there's something to be said for having to wait 4 or 5 days in ahead because you get a lot of cycles of model runs to gauge the attitude of things and sort of have a handle on the butt-bang potentials.  for someone on the Cape it was short duration 'positive bust' but up their in the Merrimack Valley at UML we could see the sunset with flurries falling beneath undulating virga masses overhead, while a whiteout ripped the S. Shore.  i think we went from nothing, to warning, to advisory, ...whittled back to nothing in 8 hours flat or something... haha. 

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BrianW

BrianW

Posted
Posted 
Looks like the cape and islands just got upgraded. Where is James? 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

*** Upgrade to Tropical Storm Warning for entire south coast
including Cape Cod/Nantucket/Marthas Vineyard and Block Island ***

Guidance Evaluation ...

Large spread in the 12z guidance regarding Hermine although a new
trend has developed and that`s farther north-northeast compared to
last night`s runs. 12z EC and NAM are farthest north with UKMET and
GFS farther south-southwest. 12z GEFS also shows large spread in
surface low tracks thru 12z Tue along with 00z EPS. This model
spread is likely due to the complex interaction between the current
baroclinic mid level trough over Hermine coupled with it`s more
tropical-like low level circulation...along with traversing the very
warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Thus given this uncertainty/spread
will follow a model blend approach thru Monday night. This supports
tropical storm force winds across the south coast...Cape Cod and
Islands late tonight into Monday. As a result with consultation from
NHC the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Warning.

This evening ...

Other than the gusty northeast winds tranquil weather will prevail
with dry conditions and mild temperatures.

Overnight ...

Northeast winds increase noticeably after 06z with strongest winds
over Cape Cod and the Islands...including Block Island. This is in
response to Hermine beginning a northward track as the mid level low
begins to captures the low level circulation. This combined with a
1028 mb high over the maritimes results in a strong low level east-
northeast jet moving onshore to the Islands first and then the south
coast after 06z.

Strong mid level subsidence holds firm across much of the region
tonight yielding dry weather. However deep layer moisture and lift
associated with Hermine and approaching low level jet from offshore
will increase the risk of rain along the south coast toward
daybreak. Elsewhere dry weather prevails.
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