weathafella Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 14 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm really worried that Hermine could become a monster hurricane off the NC coastline and it looks like she is moving into NC pretty quickly and should be in the ocean by this time tomorrow morning. How would that be possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikoss427 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 At Second Beach in Middletown RI, definitely noticing the wind pickup significantly within the hour. The water isn't nearly as rough as I thought it would be. I took a picture but can't upload from mobile right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: How would that be possible? I think we all know it's not. CAT1 again maybe for a day. I was a 150 miles from landfall and must state was underwhelmed by the event. Coastal communities on either side of my LAT it was a beast. Many tree trunks strewn about. One feeder band and that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 3, 2016 Author Share Posted September 3, 2016 19 hours ago, powderfreak said: Sounds like the last 3 winter haha. Will be interesting to see what days of churning in the Atlantic do for the SSTs. oh crap! thanx for reminding me... my buddy was saying to take the SST anomalies and save the image so we can compare in a weak ...and see how Hermine does nothing else but completely wreck the thermocline and cool the tuck waters down to: -- no hope for any other cyclone this season -- completely f up the winter storm tendencies later on... ha, j/k. seriously tho, we were just talking about that same thing this morning... As to Hermine folks, this thing is currently transitioning toward a hybrid system. the obvious? it looks like a deep winter storm on satellite, replete with comma-head shield and underside entraining CAA... That said, the stall over huge oceanic heat content and perculation therein seems to suggest however outrightly so in the models, to regenerate an inner core. But, that 500mb isoheight layout by 72 hours of being 3 contours deep, over that vast an area, isn't a hurricane - no way! a-typical for warm core systems and shows that at least a goodly amount of the atmospheric physical machinery is baroclinic ...if perhaps simultaneous with a warming core at the very centroid. It would surprise me if the core gets completely converted back to warm thermo structure, at which time ... the outer parts 'shed' (see Perfect Storm) ...the wind field may contract and the surrounding weather actually improves in a more typical concentric ring of subsidence. this may actual improve sky over a lot of coastal areas ...albeit, fantastic surf show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 3, 2016 Author Share Posted September 3, 2016 HERE ARE the Aug 29 ssts in the vicinity of Hermine's cage ... we'll see what this looks like in a week to 10 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just looked at the 12Z Euro. Makes a closer pass to us but it does not deepen Hermine nearly as much as the 0Z run. At its closest pass (around 72 hours out)it almost gets to Nantucket as a weakening system of about 1000 mb. 0Z run had it getting down to 978mb off of the Delmarva but this run the lowest pressure is around 988mb. As far as rainfall goes it has 2-3" Cape and up to 1" out to the 495 belt and extreme SE NH. Wind maximums are Monday morning. 40-55mph max gusts Cape, Islands and S RI. 30-40mph Boston area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Euro has consistently been on the NW side of guidance. Would be some interesting weather at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Euro has consistently been on the NW side of guidance. Would be some interesting weather at least. I guess the good thing if you are looking for rain is that even though its been on the NW side its not caving towards the other guidance but even creeping perhaps a bit more NW. Looks like a weakening system. I really would like to see meaningful rain for you guys down there without a relentless beach erosion problem. At least astronomical tides are not high right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Imagine if this setup over New England. 21.4 inches of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, BrianW said: Imagine if this setup over New England. 21.4 inches of rain... Ocean feeding itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Center of circulation of post-Hermine is becoming better defined on visible satellite imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1pf Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 This forecast looks very strange.. is anybody actually thinking we'll get Tropical Storm conditions in Hampshire County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Are we thinking the Pawsox game tomorrow goes off without a problem? As well as post game fireworks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 hour ago, w1pf said: This forecast looks very strange.. is anybody actually thinking we'll get Tropical Storm conditions in Hampshire County? I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 hours ago, w1pf said: This forecast looks very strange.. is anybody actually thinking we'll get Tropical Storm conditions in Hampshire County? Ha, save it for posterity but not happening. My forecast for Greenfield was similar but for all the days it said tropical storm conditions possible the text said "chance of showers with winds 5-10mph." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Center of circulation of post-Hermine is becoming better defined on visible satellite imagery. I can't tell if the LLCi is becoming better defined or not but one thing is clear. It has lost all of its deep convection. For this to become a hurricane again things better start popping near the center. Looks awful on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 hours ago, BrianW said: Imagine if this setup over New England. 21.4 inches of rain... I'd have a new avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 52 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I can't tell if the LLCi is becoming better defined or not but one thing is clear. It has lost all of its deep convection. For this to become a hurricane again things better start popping near the center. Looks awful on IR. Naked swirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 4 hours ago, w1pf said: This forecast looks very strange.. is anybody actually thinking we'll get Tropical Storm conditions in Hampshire County? funny I have nearly the same on the point and click forecast. I don't know how well this will pan out. Also looking at the latest IR loop, really hard to tell where the storm is. What's left of the convection looks to be "running away" from the naked swirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Wind is definitely rising here now, despite seeing stars overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I do They're forecasting devastating 11 mph winds with gusts as high as 22 in my point/click. The ZFP is a smidge less scary sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Very little in the way of rain - useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Spectacular red dawn, clear skies, ripping wind out of the north, waves in a lather, 59 degrees. You'd think this was a strong October fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Should have stayed with original forecast of complete miss for SNE. The east ideas were correct. Nooone sees any rain save maybe the islands and winds mostly are gradient based of 30-40mph. Should have known the drought would win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Back to watering ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Are they going to take down the tropical storm warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 It's not drought lol. But back to the drought. Meh warnings in effect. Sorry James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Thanks for the concerns about a major hurricane James. I boarded up my windows yesterday to block the pristine sunshine this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 I'm sure the tropical conditions are embedded into the grids from the NHC so while we know what conditions will be there is no way to remove them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Wind has shifted northeast and continues to rise. Huge whitecaps on the water now. Inside doors slamming. Bright sunshine, but def feels like there's a powerful storm around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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