Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Hurricane Hermine


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 360
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Does anyone else think that this storm has been a bit of an enigma for models & forecasting? I'm no expert in any way, but it seems to me that the models lacked consensus for a very long time as the storm approached the New England area. Is it possible, when all is done with this storm, that this might be a "learning storm" for models and forecasters? 

I've been watching the jet stream forecast, and I'm wondering if anyone more knowledgeable can explain the amount of influence the jet stream has on storms like this? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

LLJ is slowly weakening as the low fills in. I don't think they'll be any surprises tonight.

The dry air squeezing Hermine from multiple directions did a number on her. That combined with the long duration nature that prolonged her life yet ultimately led to her death. Without the blocking that's bottling Hermine in place, she'd already be way out to sea. This system is ultimately a normal part of any trof now. 

The gradient between the high and low ultimately fueled many of higher wind readings in the interior. Cape and Islands/RI saw the very end of Hermine's tropical strength.

The dry air also meant less rain. It felt like a winter time occluded mess that only results in localized low level frontogenesis jackpots in the convergence zones.

Did I weenie out over this system? Yes. And I'd do it again tomorrow. It's summer. You take any change in weather just for the sense of excitement.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, LikesNaturesFury said:

Does anyone else think that this storm has been a bit of an enigma for models & forecasting? I'm no expert in any way, but it seems to me that the models lacked consensus for a very long time as the storm approached the New England area. Is it possible, when all is done with this storm, that this might be a "learning storm" for models and forecasters? 

I've been watching the jet stream forecast, and I'm wondering if anyone more knowledgeable can explain the amount of influence the jet stream has on storms like this? 

nooo... i touched on this the other day. 

as far as the 'standard for performance' for the technology and modeling this was handled overall very well actually. 

what this is, ...is a matter of perception that was prone to bias for having excessive attention to detail plied at every moment of every pixel change across satellite and radar, leveraged against modeled data ... in order to dig up plausibility that despite any given model depiction,  a storm-related holocaust could still happen.... 

sarcasm aside, most of any error over the life of this thing was entirely within expectation domain.  the models picked up on a slow moving TS/hurricane moving immediately astride the SE U.S. coast, ..then, out to sea just S of the Del Marva, then meandering and/or looping SE of LI/bite/shelf waters for some 2 days before dissipating.

well, ... what happened/is happening...  I saw solutions illustrating that evolution from middle range global modes, too, and they pretty much scored B+ to A+ across the board.  

as far as intensity its self ... yeeeah, but ... that was still inside the envelope of how well these things are typically handled in unusual circumstances.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey guys,

 

does anybody know how to make your phone site look just like the desktop sight on this new upgraded set up.  On my I-phone it doesn't show the location of the poster, or if they are a Met or Administrator etc....  Is there a way to get that look on your phone?  On the old site I was able to have my phone look exactly like the desktop look?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

nooo... i touched on this the other day. 

as far as the 'standard for performance' for the technology and modeling this was handled overall very well actually. 

what this is, ...is a matter of perception that was prone to bias for having excessive attention to detail plied at every moment of every pixel change across satellite and radar, leveraged against modeled data ... in order to dig up plausibility that despite any given model depiction,  a storm-related holocaust could still happen.... 

sarcasm aside, most of any error over the life of this thing was entirely within expectation domain.  the models picked up on a slow moving TS/hurricane moving immediately astride the SE U.S. coast, ..then, out to sea just S of the Del Marva, then meandering and/or looping SE of LI/bite/shelf waters for some 2 days before dissipating.

well, ... what happened/is happening...  I saw solutions illustrating that evolution from middle range global modes, too, and they pretty much scored B+ to A+ across the board.  

as far as intensity its self ... yeeeah, but ... that was still inside the envelope of how well these things are typically handled in unusual circumstances.

Yeah, I mean I posted a GFS solution several days ago that showed this bend back to the west and trapping near the coast. Anytime you get a storm to basically stall out, you'll see spaghetti plots that look a mess. But they were all basically saying the same thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey guys,

 

does anybody know how to make your phone site look just like the desktop sight on this new upgraded set up.  On my I-phone it doesn't show the location of the poster, or if they are a Met or Administrator etc....  Is there a way to get that look on your phone?  On the old site I was able to have my phone look exactly like the desktop look?  

There are no "skins" like we had with the old site.  This site is developed to be mobile friendly so the skins are necessary anymore.  I see what you're saying with the member locations but yo can click on a poster on mobile and see where they are posting from.  Going forward though we should make a point to post our location in posts since they are not readily visible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/5/2016 at 1:09 PM, weathafella said:

James, the warm water is a myth.  As a general rule, strengthening of tropical systems is dampened with sst under 26C.   You'd have to go way south of our latitude to achieve event he minimal threshold.  The water is warm for our standards but not good enough for hurricane strength.

True, and not only that but the depth of the water is important. The Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream and deep warm water sources, around here we're typically only heating the top part of the water column. So these big system upwell cooler water, quickly erasing any positive anomalies (as we've seen from area buoys already).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

There are no "skins" like we had with the old site.  This site is developed to be mobile friendly so the skins are necessary anymore.  I see what you're saying with the member locations but yo can click on a poster on mobile and see where they are posting from.  Going forward though we should make a point to post our location in posts since they are not readily visible.

Ok thank you Baroclinic Zone.  It's just a lil bit of a shame not to be able to get the Desktop look on your mobil device like we were before.  I appreciate the reply :-).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Enjoying the low topped leftovers from Hermine.

.72 so far today.

Great winds yesterday - especially afternoon/evening - Impressive surf for days and now a much needed soaking rain.

Except for the occasional power issues over the last 24 hours - the storm as a whole has been a total positive! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...