Cerakoter1984 Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 I think raindancewx out west has the best chance of seeing a really great winter out of all of us at this point. The GEFS, GFS and CFS don't totally suck tonight but the Euro does. Heard the GEM isn't bad either. Which one to pick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 The Euro has consistently been too far west in the extended. It has had to correct itself each run. The JMA weekly doesn't look too bad. There's an emphasis on more of a northern solution as we get into week 3-4. Week 2 is cold almost everywhere: Week 3-4 have Alaska/NorthWest US Coast troughing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Hi everyone! Happy Thanksgiving and Happy Winter Weather Watching again. Tis the season, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 I hope we do have to watch a bunch of systems this winter! Happy Thanksgiving guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Happy Thanksgiving to all. The Euro got an upgrade for Thanksgiving so no more parallel run. Weeklies today..... Not sure what the deal is. Looks like it should be warm but the surface temps are below normal for us almost the entire run. There's probably a large spread in the individual ensemble models and some are probably really cold. The warmest period looks like right around Christmas and that period is normal with a few pockets of below normal. Think I'm going to punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Happy Thanksgiving to all. The Euro got an upgrade for Thanksgiving so no more parallel run. Weeklies today..... Not sure what the deal is. Looks like it should be warm but the surface temps are below normal for us almost the entire run. There's probably a large spread in the individual ensemble models and some are probably really cold. The warmest period looks like right around Christmas and that period is normal with a few pockets of below normal. Think I'm going to punt. Yeah. Punt is fair. I had pretty high hopes for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 2 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Yeah. Punt is fair. I had pretty high hopes for December. I meant just punt on analysis until the next weeklies. The control run was pretty much 'worse case scenario' when it comes to a boring Dec and didn't match up with the ensemble run. Not punting on December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 9 hours ago, JoMo said: I meant just punt on analysis until the next weeklies. The control run was pretty much 'worse case scenario' when it comes to a boring Dec and didn't match up with the ensemble run. Not punting on December. I see what you're saying now. On the plus side though I guess, the weeklies have been crap since September. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 According to the Euro ensembles today......Well I feel good about it being really really cold over western Canada and the NW US in the extended. Possibly extending into the Northern Plains. That looks pretty likely. Problems start to arise if that cold air spills S or E or not though. Some of the members have a big Arctic outbreak, other members say it's going to be warm. Back in 2013, I think it was, it was easy to see the big Arctic outbreaks because the members were all on the same page. The only thing they look to be on the same page about right now is the cold over western Canada and the NW. We really really need to keep the blocking at the pole though, if we lose that, we'll have the ridge building north and winter will suck unless we get the blocking back. The weeklies still had the blocking, which is why we had a cold look despite everything looking rather flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Good example of the -EPO influence being shown on the GFS tonight..... Strong -EPO (the ridge pushing up into Alaska) Cold air impact: Of course it'll change..... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 43 minutes ago, JoMo said: Good example of the -EPO influence being shown on the GFS tonight..... Strong -EPO (the ridge pushing up into Alaska) Cold air impact: Of course it'll change..... lol Of course that is fine. If the block ends up staying out at the Aleutians though, we're fooked. The pattern we are evolving to does fit the analogs I have had but I suppose I didn't study enough about how the transition worked. I think we are going to get to actually see it and I'm glad I get to learn about it as we go this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Models pretty ugly looking today. Oh how I want Euro member E15 to be right and we'll be watching it snow a lot 8 days from today, lol.... That one probably phased the low stuck over the SW with incoming energy from the polar jet. A few members have something that looks like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Why do you say they look ugly? Sounds like a few of the members aren't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 I got a feeling it's gonna be like pulling teeth this winter, nothing coming easy at all so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 I think we will be at least tracking storms this year... no science.. just a feeling so.. yea lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 32 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Why do you say they look ugly? Sounds like a few of the members aren't bad. Losing the blocking over the pole as shown on the 12z GEFS is ugly. That would result in a storm track to our north and we'd run the risk of getting a nice warm ridge over us. The Euro Ensemble has more of a zonal flow by the end of it's run with low heights off the NW Coast and more off the NE Coast. Several of the Euro ensemble members had snow for us, several had snow off to our NW, many had no snow over the next 15 days. Temps still aren't a sure thing because of conflicting individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 I really think this winter will mimic the Summer for lots of the country. It was cool at times in the NE & NW in June, July, but blazing hot everywhere else. It was cold for the middle 70% of the country in August though. Fall is seeing a relaxed version of the winter/summer pattern, so it's been pretty warm, but I'm assuming the August pattern comes back around Feb. It's probably been too wet in my area to warm up much in Dec relative to norms, same for AZ/TX, so I do think that helps the middle of the US, your warmth partially comes from the SW and we won't be above normal for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 lol, GFS operational goes from this: To this 12 hours later: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Safe to say gfs is lost right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 36 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Safe to say gfs is lost right now. The Euro is worse as it's having problems in the SW. A known bias. This is the Euro from yesterday morning: And this is the current run: The new run is a very very cold rain (mid 30's) or a mix in northern areas for next Sat..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Guess there's just a lot going on right now, but it's the long range so what else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 3 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: Guess there's just a lot going on right now, but it's the long range so what else is new. It keeps things interesting but remains very unpredictable. The Euro ensemble and GFS ensemble look nothing alike in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 00z Euro tonight with a big winter storm next weekend. Clown map shows 9+" from NW AR up through Missouri.. far E KS. Temps marginal, but it's fun to look at until it changes next run! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 33 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z Euro tonight with a big winter storm next weekend. Clown map shows 9+" from NW AR up through Missouri.. far E KS. Temps marginal, but it's fun to look at until it changes next run! lol Well, kinda surprised to see the Euro hop on the GFS and CFS train but holy crap! I'll take it. When the ensembles load, they should be interesting tonight for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 UKMET is similar to the Euro in that it shows a more progressive ejection of the troughing and cutoff low out of the SW. And again, like the Euro, this would probably lead to a cyclogenesis event with a deformation band to the north. The other global deterministic models show the cutoff low breaking away sufficiently from the flow to stall it out longer. Even at 7 days the global ensembles are just too noisy or divergent to be of much help here. However, looking only at the EPS it does appear there is support, albeit weak, for a favorable storm track for many in this region. Verbatim EPS odds of 1"+ snow along I-44 are 30-60% with odds increasing as you go northeast from Joplin to St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Neat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Gary Lezak is great with those winter outlooks. Remember he usually has two patterns. The primary pattern dominates the maps, but the secondary pattern is important. Like coming up in December, about every 45-60 days look for 2-3 weeks of cold. Models may rush it or miss it, so look to the cycle for timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 13 minutes ago, JoMo said: Neat Super neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Our first digital snows! Look at it while you can guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 12z Euro doesn't look as impressive, maybe a light mix of rain/snow for a lot of locations. The system wraps up farther east this run. New, bigger system, looks to be coming in around Day 10 with very cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.