JoMo Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 So this happened on the CFS just a bit ago for Dec, lol The 500 MB pattern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Holy smokes that would be December 2000 all over again. Good to see such consistency amongst the models heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 2 hours ago, JoMo said: So this happened on the CFS just a bit ago for Dec, lol The 500 MB pattern: Fwiw, it has been trying to show this off and on since mid October. Definitely not to that degree at 500 mb though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 The warmth around the pole looks pretty locked in for right now. There are some differences between the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble as we go into Dec. The main difference being off the west coast and into Alaska. While the GFS has the toughing farther south near CA/OR the Euro is farther NW with it. Also no ridging going up into Alaska on the Euro. There's also other differences upstream from that. Basically if you draw a line up and down the center of this map, everything to the right is very similar to what the Euro ensembles show... Everything to the left has differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Hello again! Optimistic for some significant cold and/or snow event during December. It'll be fun watching with you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolfe904 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 I'm new here to Kansas City area from NC and am excited for some white stuff! I'm not too knowledgeable with the maps and lingo, but learning a little. i noticed on 2 apps that we have a possibility for some snow at night on day 13, as well as snow showers on day/night 14. May not happen,but nice to see the flake on the forcasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 7 minutes ago, kwolfe904 said: I'm new here to Kansas City area from NC and am excited for some white stuff! I'm not too knowledgeable with the maps and lingo, but learning a little. i noticed on 2 apps that we have a possibility for some snow at night on day 13, as well as snow showers on day/night 14. May not happen,but nice to see the flake on the forcasts. Probably because the GFS is bringing a system by around that time. It'll probably change though so don't get your hopes up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Week 3-4 on the JMA weeklies don't look bad at all. No big ridge over us or anything. Temps near or below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Not hating the Euro weeklies today. Waiting on the rest of the data and to see if the Parallel run comes in but the ensemble run looked decent. Some colder than normal 850 temps showing up around Dec 1st or so, brief respite then real cold 850 temps plow in around the 7th or so and stays below normal until the 21st or so. More below normal hits the 24th through the 27th, and then the 29th through the 1st. Hopefully the rest of the data comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolfe904 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Let it snow!! In all seriousness, thanks for your updates! I'm kinda a newbie to all this weather talk after living in S FL for 36 years and a brief 4 years in the Carolinas where a dusting shuts the town down! So, when my husband said we are being transferred with her work here, I said, "Bring it"! Now, neighbors tell me it doesn't snow much here (Kansas City Suburbs- Olathe, KS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Parallel still hasn't come in yet but the normal weeklies have finished. There's definitely a period of cold after the first week of Dec showing up as the trough crosses from the western US to eastern US. Control run has frozen stuff around Dec 13th and around the 27th or so. Subject to change wildly of course, but it's nice to at least see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Given the pattern evolution throughout this month, the first weekend of December has really had my attention for a little while. Now the Euro Weeklies are beginning to see that as well it seems. I'd be interested to see if we can't get something going to open the month and spike our interests. Some of us are going to knock out our first 32, 30 and 28 degree freezes in one shot Saturday night into Sunday. Can't remember that ever happening like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 This is from the CFS - everyone write down what the ensembles say for your town for snow Nov 18 - Dec 31. We can come back in January and evaluate which ensemble is best. C is kind of awesome, but I like "D" best for New Mexico. For ABQ it's: A - 6" B - 1" C - 10" D - 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Parallel Euro Weeklies have finally come in..... After probably the first week of Dec... it's below normal on surface temps across much of the US through the entire run which ends Jan 1st. Coldest of the air looks to be east of the Rockies across E CO, W KS and NE. Wow. Coast to coast cold from about Mid-Dec on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Parallel Euro Weeklies have finally come in..... After probably the first week of Dec... it's below normal on surface temps across much of the US through the entire run which ends Jan 1st. Coldest of the air looks to be east of the Rockies across E CO, W KS and NE. Wow. Coast to coast cold from about Mid-Dec on. Great improvement, maybe we get our winter yet. Thanks for updating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 On 11/17/2016 at 10:33 AM, kwolfe904 said: I'm new here to Kansas City area from NC and am excited for some white stuff! I'm not too knowledgeable with the maps and lingo, but learning a little. i noticed on 2 apps that we have a possibility for some snow at night on day 13, as well as snow showers on day/night 14. May not happen,but nice to see the flake on the forcasts. Welcome to Kansas City! Compared to NC outside the mountains KC does well with snow. However KC does not get the big snows of the Northeast, no Gulf Stream. KC is a great place for severe weather. Olathe offers quick access west or south for storm chasing closer to the heart of the Alley. I grew up in Overland Park. I like the Royals, Chiefs, Jayhawks, Sporting KC, and Tornadoes! Back on topic, ignore the GFS past Day 10. Be very skeptical even to Day 7. At Day 5 it might have the right trend. At Day 3 it might actually be somewhat useful. Euro is more reliable. Add a couple days to each category of trust. NAM goes out 60-84 hours depending on your model site, but do not get hopes up until 48 hours - preferably 36 hours. KC/OP looks warmer than normal for a couple more weeks. -NAO has cold chatter going back East, but not really for the Heartland. Stormy west could mean warm Chinook for the Plains. Later in December western US upper ridging would be more favorable for cold there. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Euro ensembles still looked good today. Several members had some frozen stuff in the area 10+ days out. Guess I'm going to have to resub for at least another month with how things are shaping up into Dec... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 12z GEFS still looks good for after Dec 1st. Timing individual systems is up to the operational at closer ranges but this is a good look for colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 A dark filled room underground and chilly wind blows..." Spots eyes waking up from Icy cold winds in the catacombs ".. lol..oh hey guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 2 hours ago, JoMo said: 12z GEFS still looks good for after Dec 1st. Timing individual systems is up to the operational at closer ranges but this is a good look for colder temps. JoMo, you gotta be loving some of the ensemble runs on the Euro huh? That period in the 10-15 just keeps looking better and better. I know a lot could still change but a cold December is looking like a near lock already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Spot said: A dark filled room underground and chilly wind blows..." Spots eyes waking up from Icy cold winds in the catacombs ".. lol..oh hey guys. Hello Spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Hello Spot. Hey im back again! Last year was really bad winter.. as in cold and snow wise for sure.. Lets hope its much better this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Nice trends continue on the 12z GEFS. I'm liking what I'm seeing for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Just now, MoWeatherguy said: Nice trends continue on the 12z GEFS. I'm liking what I'm seeing for December. December is hardly ever cold round here... hope it is this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Made it to 26 over here last night. Checked off all the major frosts and freezes in one day. Ready to check some off the list! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Let's get this party started!!! I post very little but read a lot. Looking forward to a December to Remember! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Cerakoter1984 said: JoMo, you gotta be loving some of the ensemble runs on the Euro huh? That period in the 10-15 just keeps looking better and better. I know a lot could still change but a cold December is looking like a near lock already. Yep, the mean is finally showing below normal temps after Dec 1st. Some of the individual members are quite cold as the -EPO builds. GFS is going to be fun to watch as it tries to pop multiple storm systems.... So close.... Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Latest CFS snow through Dec 27th. lol @ bottom right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Latest CFS snow through Dec 27th. lol @ bottom right... Just saw that. I'd take each except for the top right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Bottomed out at 24 this morning. Beautiful hunting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.