MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Wx 24/7 said: 12z GFS has several smaller clippers in the NW flow. Hopefully some of them lay down a bit of snow. They won't be monster storms but something is better than nothing. Yah it would give us something to look at. We still need that southern stream to crank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Crazy spring like thunderstorms here tonight lol!!!! Feels like april again lately, just totally nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 21 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: Crazy spring like thunderstorms here tonight lol!!!! Feels like april again lately, just totally nuts! Yah I hear ya, at least we're getting wet again. That's my positive take. I think our cold February may be in jeopardy, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: Yah I hear ya, at least we're getting wet again. That's my positive take. I think our cold February may be in jeopardy, though. Looked that way for a bit and the weeklies were pretty meh.... but now I'm not so sure. Still can't really buy any -AO. Pretty much nothing but +AO all winter, and that doesn't work for cold in a -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 JoMo beings you understand this stuff really good, let me ask you this. Has any of the data this season been really correct that seemed like when it will get cold, it was correct and it did in fact get cold? Hope that makes sense lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 22 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: JoMo beings you understand this stuff really good, let me ask you this. Has any of the data this season been really correct that seemed like when it will get cold, it was correct and it did in fact get cold? Hope that makes sense lol Yeah in general 1-2 week intervals in the modeling. When it was supposed to get cold, it got cold. Although, there was an epic battle in the Euro ensembles where it was basically 50/50 much of the winter. The individual storm systems are more uncertain though. The weeklies, for instance, show the general longwave pattern in the longer range. It's not always correct, because long range modeling isn't going to be perfect, but you can see the general expected pattern. However, I can't tell you how many times they showed a -AO or -NAO 2-3 weeks out that failed to materialize though. It was a common theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 What do you all think of this for March? WT360 has a pretty good track record for stuff like this I find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Well with this ridge that's about to move in, looks like another boring week/ week and a half... perhaps things get interesting in early/mid February, but probably not. Looks like another boring winter down the pipes. Maybe severe season will finally get cranking again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Around Feb 6th or so is when the next possibly sustained cold will arrive. Snow/frozen chances after that will depend on storm track(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Nice and cold today but that will be flushed down the toilet again next week with more 50/60's it appears lol. I'm ready for spring, hate to say it but forget this winter again. Maybe next year guys lol. Something could happen in Feb. but Im not holding my breath at this point, I am ready to move on past another horrible winter season! It's worst than last year it feels like haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 I'd like to see some snow in Oklahoma at least once this winter. The time it snowed in Oklahoma I got snow in North Carolina, but I still want to see snow on campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 We're rapidly running out of opportunities down here. We could maybe get something in the first half of February but beyond that, I'd stick a fork in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 21 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: We're rapidly running out of opportunities down here. We could maybe get something in the first half of February but beyond that, I'd stick a fork in this one. Agree. RIP winter 16-17. Let's just hurry and get spring and summer here now. Never thought I'd see back to back snowless winters but it's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, MoWeatherguy said: Agree. RIP winter 16-17. Let's just hurry and get spring and summer here now. Never thought I'd see back to back snowless winters but it's happening. Hopefully we can at least get a long cool spring and a short summer this year. I just hate being hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Yeah, I'm tossing in the towel as well, things not looking good on the weeklies and even the ensembles are changing. Still a chance for some snow at some point until Spring arrives but it's just not happening this year. Maybe a weak to moderate Nino next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 hours ago, JoMo said: Yeah, I'm tossing in the towel as well, things not looking good on the weeklies and even the ensembles are changing. Still a chance for some snow at some point until Spring arrives but it's just not happening this year. Maybe a weak to moderate Nino next winter. Maybe the Nino will at least help keep my cooler summer idea. Our average snowfall from '09-15 was pretty awesome so I should've expected a couple of crap winters in a row I guess. Even as unscientific as that is. These last 2 have had a mid-2000s or late 90s feel to them. Just crap after crap. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 hours ago, JoMo said: well.... Don't fall for it, JoMo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Ignore the 12z GFS this morning as well. It's a mirage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 37 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Ignore the 12z GFS this morning as well. It's a mirage! Yah ignore all models till next December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 hour ago, MoWeatherguy said: Yah ignore all models till next December. Good idea, reverse psychology. "A watched pot never boils" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Let's hear it for the DGEX.. After I said ignore all models I post one of the worst. Desperate times guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 A couple of chances of snow coming up Saturday night and again next Monday night for NE KS and MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Seeing a mention of ZR for the weekend, not buying it but anything frozen at this point looks good lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 12z GFS shows some light snow possible Saturday night/Sunday morning mainly over northern and NE MO where 1-2" may be possible. KC could see a dusting. A stronger system develops Monday night and NE KS and much of central and northern MO could see accumulating snow. Right now the GFS would show potentially 2" around KC and maybe as much as 3-5" in northern MO. Still way too early to know how this with pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Snow off the table for this weekend and Monday night for much of the area. Extreme northern MO could see some very light snow Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 Is the above normal pattern we're in supposed to continue for the rest of February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 part of the Day-2 SPC outlook (Slight Risk for MO/AR/OK) Quote While convection will initially struggle to develop, sustained ascent should contribute to thunderstorm maturation. Forecast nam soundings suggest near-surface based supercells will evolve by mid evening...perhaps over eastern OK then spread/develop east across southern MO/AR. If surface-based updrafts evolve then a few tornadoes could be noted; otherwise, large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats as thunderstorms progress toward the MS river by sunrise Tuesday morning. Today's 12z NAM shows at 09z Tuesday: 2000 J/kg of CAPE, 250 m2/s2 of SRH, and 41 kt of effective shear at the MO/AR border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just about time to put a fork in Oklahoma and Texas. Can't rule out a rare late February or early March event, but the next two weeks look more like April. Wonder how long it'll take for our first 100 degree temp in McAllen or Laredo. Big time fire weather problems on Monday, Tuesday, and later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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