aurora Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Are we, um, 100% sure that temperatures are actually going to rise back above freezing in the OKC Metro overnight? Particularly, I'm not quite certain why Cleveland and McClain counties aren't being added back into the Freezing Rain Advisory yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said: Temps have actually dropped a few degree the past couple hours on the mesonet, Norman back below freezing and OKC back down to 30 after briefly up to 31. I was just going to post this. Yikes. We may not be out of the woods yet. EDIT (8:30 pm):. I was just out getting some food (on the northwest side of OKC). Rain is much lighter than it was an hour or so ago. My car thermometer is saying 32 but it is consistently a degree or so warm. Roads are fine but the trees are definitely looking droopy. Nothing disastrous yet... and it's worth noting that last winter's ice storms did a good job culling any weak branches... but if this keeps up, we might be hearing some tree branches snapping by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 hours ago, JoMo said: Freezing rain and thunder here. Temp is 32, should rise above freezing tomorrow morning at about 4-5 AM. 32 here again in Monett. Got up to 36 today, but have fallen tonight under a NE wind. I hope we don't drop anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Kansas City still dry as a bone. The precip shield continues to struggle to make its way northward. The models have not done a good job with the dry layer about 3k feet up. Local mets are now saying .10 to .25. This really wouldn't meet ice storm criteria. Both the 00z NAM and GFS show .47 and .46 respectively for KC. Again, it's not handling the dry air very well so I would expect you can cut these totals in half at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 32 and pouring rain here. Trees looking awfully iced over. Temps can raise a few degrees, that would be fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 35 minutes ago, JoMo said: 32 and pouring rain here. Trees looking awfully iced over. Temps can raise a few degrees, that would be fine by me. Starting to see reports of some power outages and trees down in the northern part of Jasper county JoMo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 45 minutes ago, JoMo said: 32 and pouring rain here. Trees looking awfully iced over. Temps can raise a few degrees, that would be fine by me. We are 32 and a a steady rain falling. Have a couple low hanging branches on small trees I'm watching to see if they drop any more. A little melting took place but lots of icicles on the trees along with the .2 of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Looks like another band is about to move into Joplin. Hope you guys get above freezing soon, if not, it could be a long night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 21 minutes ago, MUWX said: Looks like another band is about to move into Joplin. Hope you guys get above freezing soon, if not, it could be a long night. Man, if we had been 2 degrees cooler the last two days we would be dealing with significant power and tree issues. 3/4 inch of rain and most all of it has been light with only a few bursts of moderate... like right now. With amounts probably going over and inch tonight we would've had 3/4 accretions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Looks like Joplin is above freezing finally. Hope the rain has aided in washing away most of the ice. My Mom says she is going out today unless it's extreme. Thanks for all the help, I really appreciate it!!! I may be back to visit come February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 This was one of the most hyped up storms I've ever seen. Especially for the MO side and those in OK. Parts of Kansas probably reached warning criteria. The NAM in my opinion did a good job hinting at lighter amounts because it seemed to detect the dry layer which caused precip to stay south of the area. The GEM, Euro and GFS were a complete joke. Ice storms are tough to forecast but the hype with this storm was uncalled for IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 22 minutes ago, KC metro said: This was one of the most hyped up storms I've ever seen. Especially for the MO side and those in OK. Parts of Kansas probably reached warning criteria. The NAM in my opinion did a good job hinting at lighter amounts because it seemed to detect the dry layer which caused precip to stay south of the area. The GEM, Euro and GFS were a complete joke. Ice storms are tough to forecast but the hype with this storm was uncalled for IMO. Maybe but, like I've told those bashing meteorologists around here, 2-3 degrees cooler in Tulsa and we're talking about 3/4 inch of ice and significant grid and tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Wow, this radar from E New Mexico looks bad. Some of the 50dbz reflectivity is due to highly shiny wet sleet or melting snowflakes but still, this must be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 3 hours ago, KC metro said: This was one of the most hyped up storms I've ever seen. Especially for the MO side and those in OK. Parts of Kansas probably reached warning criteria. The NAM in my opinion did a good job hinting at lighter amounts because it seemed to detect the dry layer which caused precip to stay south of the area. The GEM, Euro and GFS were a complete joke. Ice storms are tough to forecast but the hype with this storm was uncalled for IMO. Depends on where you're located. It hasn't even started IMBY yet but there's already DOT salt trucks sliding off the road in Hastings, NE along with semi's sliding off the interstate or sliding and losing their load on the interstate blocking it completely and the main event doesn't kick in until this evening/overnight here. Given the circumstances of how widespread it was looking to be along with the amount of precip expected and how little it takes to change the result, I think it was best to do a blanket Ice Storm Warning instead of a WSW this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Looks like everything is still on track with what the Euro Weeklies showed on Thurs. Warmup coming up as things shuffle around. Then into a +PNA type pattern developing at the end of the month into Feb, which should drop some colder air into the central and eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Had mixed feelings watching the Steelers-Chiefs game tonight. I'm a die hard steelers fan since I was a kid but I also really like the Chiefs. Either way, the Chiefs don't have much to be disappointed about. Good football today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Looks like KC is still getting freezing rain. At least parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 23 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Had mixed feelings watching the Steelers-Chiefs game tonight. I'm a die hard steelers fan since I was a kid but I also really like the Chiefs. Either way, the Chiefs don't have much to be disappointed about. Good football today. I'm a huge Falcons fan. Have been since I was a kid. One more win to make our first trip to the SB! Tough loss for the Chefs tonight too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 storm precip totals from the last 2-3 days. I have seen some info from DDC saying that there was 0.75" of ice and even up to 1" of ice accumulation. As far as I know, a lot of areas of OK, KS and parts of the Texas panhandle had local storm reports of 0.25" of ice. Southern New Mexico got pretty wet. I wonder if there was significant ice in eastern New Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Euro ensembles are still going to the general +PNA idea in the long range. Weeklies will be out soon to see if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Weeklies have the +PNA type pattern towards the end of Jan with the eastern trough. Looks like something wants to come underneath as we go into early Feb. Mid-Feb becomes a little less defined as the troughing out near the Aleutians wants to push back east a bit, faint signals of a bit of something over the south and southeast though, then it looks stormier in late Feb into early March at the end of the run. Temps in an hour or so. EDIT: Temps are below normal at the end of Jan into Feb.. normalish through mid-Feb... then above normal through almost late feb, then below normal late feb into early march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Pattern isn't going to break. No snow for us. Might as well warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 4 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Pattern isn't going to break. No snow for us. Might as well warm up. Hell it has basically, there has not been much cold at all minus the few snaps we had lol. I have never seen a warmer winter season so far. I have pretty much given up for the most part on this craptastic winter season again for the 2nd year in a row now. I'll be extremely shocked if something happens or turns around for the better, guess ya never know really lol. But I agree, get warm and just stay warm! It gets depressing when we all look forward to it though, I try to remain calm and optimistic but it gets old after 2 seasons now ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: Hell it has basically, there has not been much cold at all minus the few snaps we had lol. I have never seen a warmer winter season so far. I have pretty much given up for the most part on this craptastic winter season again for the 2nd year in a row now. I'll be extremely shocked if something happens or turns around for the better, guess ya never know really lol. But I agree, get warm and just stay warm! It gets depressing when we all look forward to it though, I try to remain calm and optimistic but it gets old after 2 seasons now ya know. I think statistically speaking we are only truly a degree or 2 above average for the first half of the season (DEC 1 to date). Last year kicked the crap out of this one in the warmth department. I think we were something on the order of plus 7 at the midpoint. November is what has made this one seem so awful to a lot of people. I think we set the latest freeze record this fall. I really think most of our problem this season has been the QBO phase and it's delayed transition. Its mark is evident in the similarities between the overall pattern this year and the pattern last winter. They really arent that much different in spite of the switch from Super Niño to La Niña (cold neutral really). The good news is that it should flip in the middle of this year. These 2 seasons have reminded me most of 2011-12 and 12-13. Both sucked but look what came in 13-14 and 14-15. Anyway, a lot of stuff to think about there while we see what happens with the rest of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 16 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Pattern isn't going to break. No snow for us. Might as well warm up. I totally agree. There's a chance the mean trough position sets up too far east of here in Feb and we get the screws again, ruining the little optimism we have left. Another sh*t year already if u ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 hour ago, MoWeatherguy said: I totally agree. There's a chance the mean trough position sets up too far east of here in Feb and we get the screws again, ruining the little optimism we have left. Another sh*t year already if u ask me. That's a possibility. Winter isn't over yet though and Feb is typically our snowiest time of winter and it just takes 1 storm. That sustained winter that most are hoping for didn't happen, but at least we saw some flakes before Christmas, and the ice storm wasn't too destructive for most everyone. Next year is looking like it's back to El Nino, either a weak or moderate one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 On the plus side, at least we got some moisture over the weekend. We were getting very, very dry. 1.85" from the system here in Monett IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Euro/GFS looking cold beyond day 7, but, will there be snow before that pattern breaks down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 If we could get that big upper level low to park over Hudson Bay and funnel down cold, along with an undercutting southern jet, we'd be in business. That was the dominant pattern during the great 02-03 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 12z GFS has several smaller clippers in the NW flow. Hopefully some of them lay down a bit of snow. They won't be monster storms but something is better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.