JoMo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Ah. There's a little frontal circulation centered across NW AR. This has been resulting in more of an easterly wind today across MO. Even a bit of a SE wind in SW MO. Later tonight and early tomorrow morning, that circulation is going to move a bit farther east, which will result in a more northerly/NE flow. This is what's helping bring the freezing line back south a bit. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Let me preface this by saying I am at work so I have incomplete access to model and other data, but I feel like I am in the bizzaro world. So far, we've had very little weather of any kind around here. Temperatures have inched up (29 F now) and what very limited drizzle we've had isn't freezing on any surfaces so I was kind of feeling like we were over the hump. Now, for the past hour or so, a couple of the the local mets (OKC area that is) have started tweeting variations of (and I am paraphrasing here): "Tonight and tomorrow, it is going to be much worse than originally thought!!!" Again, I have very limited access to information from work, but I just ain't seeing it. What am I missing? There sure isn't all that much incoming on radar so, if heavier-than-expected precipitation is being predicted, it is many hours out, and, with temperatures inching up, I can't see how heavier rain out beyond 6 or 8 hours will matter.... other than the fact that we are in a drought and can really use water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Models pointing toward additional icing in OK, including OKC and Tulsa tonight but I'm struggling to see it honestly. It's above freezing here, ice has melted off of elevated surfaces. Temps and DPs right on top of eachother. Hard to see a lot of evaporative cooling . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said: Models pointing toward additional icing in OK, including OKC and Tulsa tonight but I'm struggling to see it honestly. It's above freezing here, ice has melted off of elevated surfaces. Temps and DPs right on top of eachother. Hard to see a lot of evaporative cooling . LOL. I just posted on this exact topic. I feel like there must be some magic formula I am missing but I am totally not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 It's 31 between Owasso and Collinsville but enough solar energy is getting through to melt the glaze that formed this morning. With a light mist and expected precip it might make it interesting once the sun lowers and sets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just it being night? I dunno could shave a degree or two off in that area. Most areas are saturated so evap cooling is going to be limited. 7 minutes ago, NJ_Ken said: LOL. I just posted on this exact topic. I feel like there must be some magic formula I am missing but I am totally not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Spot said: Just it being night? I dunno could shave a degree or two off in that area. Most areas are saturated so evap cooling is going to be limited. Wind is still out of the north so maybe there is still a little more cold air advection to look forward to? Maybe that, nightfall, and heavier rain (....or any rain?) will be enough to make things interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 On just being night, yes, since it's already 31. solar energy has an impact this close to freezing, even under clouds. It was 31 this morning and everything but the ground has a solid glaze on it. i just noticed lightning south of Ponca City too so some areas under 30 up there may get some quick ice if those convective cells continue to fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 The 12z mesoscale models and the HRRR have been highlighting a heavy band of precip coming through after 3z centered on the OKC metro and points northeast from there, with amounts 0.50-1.25 inches. That's according to the models. They were overdone with round one this morning so I am a bit skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Well, they moved the Chiefs game to 7:20 PM now due to safety concerns with the weather. Packers/Cowboys game is still at 3:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 18z NAM increases ice accumulation to .26" for KC. It had been significantly drier than that. The 12z GFS and GEM both show a little over .50" for KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Part of the latest Tulsa AFD: The freezing line hasn't budged much today...and currently extends from extreme NE OK...through the middle of Tulsa county to south of the OKC metro. While the GFS has finally trended colder...the ECMWF and higher-res NAM models continue to have a better handle on the low-level temperatures as were once again followed very closely for this forecast. Regional radars are showing an area of expanding precipitation across southern OK/northern TX this afternoon...with this activity will continue to lift north through the evening and overnight. With the freezing line expected to remain nearly quasi-stationary overnight...the most favored area for additional ice accumulation will continue to be along and north of I-44. Will not make any changes to the current Ice Storm warning and Freezing Rain advisory...although there are some indications (read ECMWF solution) that northern parts of Creek county and western and northern sections of Tulsa county could approach warning criteria. I just don't have the confidence to upgrade at this time...and will allow the evening crew to further monitor. The freezing line is expected to retreat a bit northwest on Saturday...although areas northwest of I-44 should remain right at the 32F mark. Additional significant icing should extend into Saturday night in these areas...with the overall heaviest amounts across western Pawnee into western and central Osage counties where local ice totals around a half to three-quarters of an inch will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 45 minutes ago, JoMo said: Well, they moved the Chiefs game to 7:20 PM now due to safety concerns with the weather. Packers/Cowboys game is still at 3:30. Question is how much better conditions will be at that time compared to earlier. Degree or two either way will obviously matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Ice storm warning extended south to include OKC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 18z GFS continues its consistency for the KC area. Accumulation of .54" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 18z GFS ice accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 The freezing line is inching south across Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKStorm Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I was out looking at the ice in NE OK this morning, heaviest I had was near Chelsea and NE Rogers County. I found the areas with the best ice were below 30 at all times. I really have a hard time with any major ice in the Tulsa Metro proper. The cold air is just so shallow still at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Fast11 said: I was out looking at the ice in NE OK this morning, heaviest I had was near Chelsea and NE Rogers County. I found the areas with the best ice were below 30 at all times. I really have a hard time with any major ice in the Tulsa Metro proper. The cold air is just so shallow still at this time. Agreed for Tulsa. I think 244 and south is in the clear for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, Fast11 said: I was out looking at the ice in NE OK this morning, heaviest I had was near Chelsea and NE Rogers County. I found the areas with the best ice were below 30 at all times. I really have a hard time with any major ice in the Tulsa Metro proper. The cold air is just so shallow still at this time. Thats a good point for the Tulsa Metro. I think Owasso/Collinsville/Skiatook might see some accumulations but that would likely be somewhat limited. Skiatook though has been below freezing much of the day. At my house we're back down to 30 here in Owasso and been there for about 1.5 hrs but everything melted off our outdoor items earlier this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Wet bulbs are important during these events. In case you ever wanted to calculate....right now KC is at 27 air temp and 24 wet bulb. http://www.the-snowman.com/wetbulb2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Things refreezing north of Owasso with some light freezing drizzle and sprinkles. Edit: freezing line past Tulsa county except the SE corner. That's further south than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 23 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Things refreezing north of Owasso with some light freezing drizzle and sprinkles. Edit: freezing line past Tulsa county except the SE corner. That's further south than I expected. Are you talking Collinsville or Romona or what? I just left 96th street, things are still good there right now but that could change quickly and over a short distance. I wouldn't be surprised if Collinsville is refreezing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Are you talking Collinsville or Romona or what? I just left 96th street, things are still good there right now but that could change quickly and over a short distance. I wouldn't be surprised if Collinsville is refreezing now. I'm at about 107th N and Garnett. Technically a Collinsville address but everything else is Owasso services, school, etc. We just had a short moderate rain that created a thin new layer of ice on my trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: I'm at about 107th N and Garnett. Technically a Collinsville address but everything else is Owasso services, school, etc. We just had a short moderate rain that created a thin new layer of ice on my trees. Ahh yea only about a mile from where we were. It doesn't take much distance to make all the difference. OKC now well below freezing with temp stations coming several degrees below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 I don't like seeing the moisture down to my SW and see the HRRR creeping back to the freezing mark two runs in a row. Looking increasingly like JoMo and the Joplin area will get some more frozen precip overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 I live right next to the Arkansas River, just north of I-44 in Tulsa, and the elevated surfaces have frozen up again. Barely got my mailbox open. I don't think all of Tulsa will be spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 27 minutes ago, ouamber said: I live right next to the Arkansas River, just north of I-44 in Tulsa, and the elevated surfaces have frozen up again. Barely got my mailbox open. I don't think all of Tulsa will be spared. I agree and am surprised. Dewpoints and temps today made me think Tulsa would be in the clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 We are going on 24 hours of almost continuous local media hype in OKC about the "ice storm" (and that was preceded by darn near a week of occasional hype). Total rainfall at Will Rogers World Airport in the last 24 hours: 0.0". Amount of time temps are likely to stay below freezing: 8 hours. Amount of rain likely to fall in the next 8 hours: Perhaps a few hundredths... if one of these incoming, light, hit-and-miss showers hits. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 22 minutes ago, NJ_Ken said: We are going on 24 hours of almost continuous local media hype in OKC about the "ice storm" (and that was preceded by darn near a week of occasional hype). Total rainfall at Will Rogers World Airport in the last 24 hours: 0.0". Amount of time temps are likely to stay below freezing: 8 hours. Amount of rain likely to fall in the next 8 hours: Perhaps a few hundredths... if one of these incoming, light, hit-and-miss showers hits. What am I missing? You're missing nothing, as far as I'm concerned. Seems many have had trouble synthesizing the complex timeline of this long-duration "event." The more reliable precip chances were always going to be late this weekend into early Monday when only NW OK (if that) is still cold enough. For the past few days, you could cherry pick model solutions that produced streaks of significant (presumably freezing) precip for C OK at various intervals from this morning through tomorrow afternoon. Smoothing out the noise generally lent to totals averaging on the order of 0.1-0.25" or so for the entire subfreezing period, at least from the immediate city down to OUN. And when much of that QPF comes from extremely low rainfall rates spread out over many hours, I tend to expect underperforming, which has been the case thus far. Weak convection finally looks to be afoot coming in from the S, so we may yet pull off that 0.1-0.3" over the metro by mid-morning. Still, this has been one of the more overhyped winter threats in recent memory -- a high standard to meet around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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