Doramo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Night Owl report; We are getting intermittent showers so not much accumulation at this point . Was just outside checking and there is a light glaze of ice with icicles forming on the bushes. Temp 31.5 - DP 27 : edit Just saw the clouds light up ( lightening? ") toward the SE of us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Please keep the obs coming! Looks like the Joplin airport is reporting light ZR with a temp of 29° DP 28°. SGF seems to think everything is on track. They mention that due to coverage of qpf their will be wide variations of ZR. Part of their overnight below: At this time, the latest ice totals look to be quite close to previous forecasts. In general, areas to the south of US 60 will see up to a quarter inch of ice. Along the US 60 and I-44 corridors, a quarter to half inch of ice is expected. The heaviest amounts continue to appear likely to occur across central and west central Missouri, with three quarters of an inch or more of freezing rain. Two key messages to note this morning... 1. Much of the precipitation through this event will be showery in nature. In most cases, this will not be a steady rain, but instead off and on showers with periods of drizzle in between. This will likely lead to quite a bit of variability with road conditions/impacts, as well as storm total ice accumulations. 2. The freezing line continues to be the absolute key to how much freezing rain falls at any location, and confidence in its exact progression remains low. We will be continually tweaking hourly temperature forecasts over the next day or so to account for the latest observations and model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just saw lightning and heard thunder from a cell of freezing rain just to the north of Monett! Impressive, although doing nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 temp 31 - DP 28 The rain has stopped. Some small icicles on bushes and a thin glaze < .10" on everything otherwise . I guess that will be all we get unless more rain starts again before the temp rise above freezing . The radar shows most of that activity has moved N . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Tulsa 30/30 with areas north 30/28 to 28/27 From Owasso to Tulsa on 75 it was rain. Elevated surfaces have ice build up but even the grass in my yard was just wet. Tulsa said they don't expect temps to drop much and to stay within a degree or two of where they're at which makes sense given the dewpoints. The more significant round of icing should happen after midnight tonight north of I44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Roads aren't slick at all.. About 30-31 degrees here now. Had a bout of heavier rain earlier, just light rain showers now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Light icing on elevated surfaces here in Monett, including porches and patches on sidewalks. Roads are fine, except some patches on bridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Even the country roads around Monett are fine. Mind boggling that all these schools canceled last night or even yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 21 minutes ago, MUWX said: Even the country roads around Monett are fine. Mind boggling that all these schools canceled last night or even yesterday afternoon. Tulsa Public Schools is open.. which is somewhat shocking. They close for anything it seems. There is just a few slick spots around there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 SE of STL getting bad just closed 55 due to multiple accidents, they have had zr for 4- 6 hrs. I'm 50 miles north here NE of STL and just cloudy, cold 26 do 19. Dry air eating it up so far.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Temps are hovering around 28 F with dews at 24 F. We had some light freezing rain before dawn then a lull and we seem to be back to some freezing drizzle or very light freezing rain again. I just drove to work from the north side of OKC to downtown. No ice on roads and very little noticeable on trees and such. I had a glaze on my car but a few minutes with the defroster was enough to deal with it without scraping. The roads were absolutely empty so this was probably my fastest and easiest commute in a long, long time so there was at least one positive to this event so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 28 F is about when things start frz on roads. Many people do need to drive with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Areas around Mt. Vernon (and everywhere that band has set up I'm assuming) are getting hit hard from pictures I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Models for KC this morning... 12z NAM is .11" 12z GFS is .58" To me it's a difficult one to forecast. The cold air is in place. It's a matter of how far north the heavier precip can make it. One model is a light glazing of ice and another is an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Temps overall last night were a touch cooler than GFS predictions and about a degree warmer than the composite of the NAMs. Elevated surfaces are icing which could cause power issues and bridges to become slick in the Tulsa area. Bartlesville is getting a lot more precip then Tulsa and it appears that it will stay that way. NAM and GFS continue to indicate major icing in NW OK tomorrow with an expanded area vs previous runs. Now as far south as El Reno and Weatherford up to Enid and northward into KS. The precip streaks its way north and east to Ponca, Pawhuska and Bartlesville tomorrow morning through early evening. Oddly though the GFS puts surface temps well above freezing during this time. The NAM has things at roughly 33* in OK during this period but also shows ice accumulation. Dew Points in the 32 range during all of this...indicates not much evaporative cooling... Interesting scenario shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 This morning's sounding from Norman, Oklahoma. Classic ice storm sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I bet those "mets" who were putting out major ice storm graphics warning about days without power on FB sites about a week or so ago are already looking for their next major storm to post about... so they can needlessly whip people up in a frenzy. Tons of social media commentary about the forecast being "missed." The professionals have done a great job managing the storm thus far. Have they been 100%? No. And that's why I am glad I have this forum to read, discuss, and parse through items where we can look at facts apart from the hype. I agree that tomorrow through Sunday is tricky as well across OK, KS, and parts of MO. Will be interesting to watch the Chiefs game Sunday, even if you aren't a fan... just for weather's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Looks like about 0.25-0.50 but that's just a guess as my weather station froze up at 0.24 earlier with the heavier rain. 32 or so, should rise above freezing shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Here's an interesting mesoscale discussion from the SPC concerning NE OK and central Missouri. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2017/md0039.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 So, here's a question for Brett or some of the other mets who are frequenting our board. The high-res models do not show precip in SC KS till 12-18z Saturday. What impact does this have on the overall forecast? My hunch is the longer we do not precipitate in this air (currently 25/12) and wetbulb it, the worse the could be because of prolonged cold air advection? Or will it not matter much once the precip starts due to latent heat release? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Had that quick 20 minute downpour late last night then nothing since, temp stayed right around 34-35 all night then started rising this morning. Sitting at 38 right now with a DP of 38 according to what my weather station says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said: I bet those "mets" who were putting out major ice storm graphics warning about days without power on FB sites about a week or so ago are already looking for their next major storm to post about... so they can needlessly whip people up in a frenzy. Tons of social media commentary about the forecast being "missed." The professionals have done a great job managing the storm thus far. Have they been 100%? No. And that's why I am glad I have this forum to read, discuss, and parse through items where we can look at facts apart from the hype. I agree that tomorrow through Sunday is tricky as well across OK, KS, and parts of MO. Will be interesting to watch the Chiefs game Sunday, even if you aren't a fan... just for weather's sake. +1!!! Crazy what some "Professionals" will say or do for blog or post hits. I have primarily used NWS-SGF and this thread for my info. I would give both a A+. Clear, concise, not over or under hyped. I know we are all weather fanatics on this site but, personally I hope this storm busts for everyone. I realize that's not the case and some will get hit with some nasty conditions. It's been my personal experience that Ice storms while beautiful.......are not fun to live thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Looks like about 0.25-0.50 but that's just a guess as my weather station froze up at 0.24 earlier with the heavier rain. 32 or so, should rise above freezing shortly. JoMo, any word on power outages, updates on travel conditions in Jasper County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 18 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: JoMo, any word on power outages, updates on travel conditions in Jasper County? Not sure about the county but roads are doing ok. About 0.25" of ice accumulation I suppose. Temp is about 32-33. Electric company outage map: https://www.empiredistrict.com/Outages/OutageMap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Also, a shockingly high number of people don't know what an ice storm is. 1. "It's just rain." 2. "Yes, but it's below freezing" 1. "There's no sleet, it's not an ice storm, just rain" 2. "No sleet because the air is really warm above the ground so it melts and then freezes when it hits the ground." 1. "So it's just rain" 2. "No, it's freezing rain" 1. "It doesn't look like it's freezing to me" 2. "Then why are all the trees covered in ice?" 1. "Oh" 2. *facepalm* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 JoMo... I know. It is soooo painful. Springfield, at last check, had about 3,000 out of power. Thankful temps were marginal. They had 1.7" of rain but only had about .25" actually glaze things over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 It's annoying when the freezing line is going to be on top of you. This run of the HRRR has temps falling back to 31-32 in Joplin early tomorrow morning with another batch of precip moving up from OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 JoMo what's your call for STL and I- 70 north, looked like GEM had ice until mid afternoon Sunday with a good slug of moisture Sunday, I heard Euro was good but do not have access. Thanks!Conditions 28 do 23 glaze on everything but roads look ok. Good batch just went thru. Troy, Illinois. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, STL Scott said: JoMo what's your call for STL and I- 70 north, looked like GEM had ice until mid afternoon Sunday with a good slug of moisture Sunday, I heard Euro was good but do not have access. Thanks! Conditions 28 do 23 glaze on everything but roads look ok. Good batch just went thru. Troy, Illinois. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk You've still got another batch but that seems to be wanting to stay in STL and points south. Temps are really iffy on Sunday for STL. Too close to call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Thank you. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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