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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion


lookingnorth

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Please keep the obs coming! Looks like the Joplin airport is reporting light ZR with a temp of 29° DP 28°. SGF seems to think everything is on track. They mention that due to coverage of qpf their will be wide variations of ZR. Part of their overnight below:

At this time, the latest ice totals look to be quite close to
previous forecasts. In general, areas to the south of US 60 will
see up to a quarter inch of ice. Along the US 60 and I-44
corridors, a quarter to half inch of ice is expected. The heaviest
amounts continue to appear likely to occur across central and west
central Missouri, with three quarters of an inch or more of
freezing rain.

Two key messages to note this morning...

1. Much of the precipitation through this event will be showery
in nature. In most cases, this will not be a steady rain, but
instead off and on showers with periods of drizzle in between.
This will likely lead to quite a bit of variability with road
conditions/impacts, as well as storm total ice accumulations.

2. The freezing line continues to be the absolute key to how much
freezing rain falls at any location, and confidence in its exact
progression remains low. We will be continually tweaking hourly
temperature forecasts over the next day or so to account for the
latest observations and model trends.
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Tulsa 30/30 with areas north 30/28 to 28/27

From Owasso to Tulsa on 75 it was rain. 

Elevated surfaces have ice build up but even the grass in my yard was just wet.

Tulsa said they don't expect temps to drop much and to stay within a degree or two of where they're at which makes sense given the dewpoints.

The more significant round of icing should happen after midnight tonight north of I44.

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21 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Even the country roads around Monett are fine. Mind boggling that all these schools canceled last night or even yesterday afternoon. 

Tulsa Public Schools is open.. which is somewhat shocking. They close for anything it seems. There is just a few slick spots around there right now.

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Temps are hovering around 28 F with dews at 24 F.  We had some light freezing rain before dawn then a lull and we seem to be back to some freezing drizzle or very light freezing rain again.

 

I just drove to work from the north side of OKC to downtown.  No ice on roads and very little noticeable on trees and such.  I had a glaze on my car but a few minutes with the defroster was enough to deal with it without scraping.  The roads were absolutely empty so this was probably my fastest and easiest commute in a long, long time so there was at least one positive to this event so far.    

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Models for KC this morning...

12z NAM is .11"

12z GFS is .58"

To me it's a difficult one to forecast.  The cold air is in place.  It's a matter of how far north the heavier precip can make it.  One model is a light glazing of ice and another is an ice storm.  

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Temps overall last night were a touch cooler than GFS predictions and about a degree warmer than the composite of the NAMs. Elevated surfaces are icing which could cause power issues and bridges to become slick in the Tulsa area. Bartlesville is getting a lot more precip then Tulsa and it appears that it will stay that way.
NAM and GFS continue to indicate major icing in NW OK tomorrow with an expanded area vs previous runs. Now as far south as El Reno and Weatherford up to Enid and northward into KS. The precip streaks its way north and east to Ponca, Pawhuska and Bartlesville tomorrow morning through early evening. Oddly though the GFS puts surface temps well above freezing during this time. The NAM has things at roughly 33* in OK during this period but also shows ice accumulation. Dew Points in the 32 range during all of this...indicates not much evaporative cooling...
 
Interesting scenario shaping up.
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I bet those "mets" who were putting out major ice storm graphics warning about days without power on FB sites about a week or so ago are already looking for their next major storm to post about... so they can needlessly whip people up in a frenzy. Tons of social media commentary about the forecast being "missed." 

The professionals have done a great job managing the storm thus far. Have they been 100%? No. And that's why I am glad I have this forum to read, discuss, and parse through items where we can look at facts apart from the hype.  

 I agree that tomorrow through Sunday is tricky as well across OK, KS, and parts of MO. Will be interesting to watch the Chiefs game Sunday, even if you aren't a fan... just for weather's sake. :)

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So, here's a question for Brett or some of the other mets who are frequenting our board. The high-res models do not show precip in SC KS till 12-18z Saturday. What impact does this have on the overall forecast? My hunch is the longer we do not precipitate in this air (currently 25/12) and wetbulb it, the worse the could be because of prolonged cold air advection? Or will it not matter much once the precip starts due to latent heat release? 

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1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said:

I bet those "mets" who were putting out major ice storm graphics warning about days without power on FB sites about a week or so ago are already looking for their next major storm to post about... so they can needlessly whip people up in a frenzy. Tons of social media commentary about the forecast being "missed." 

The professionals have done a great job managing the storm thus far. Have they been 100%? No. And that's why I am glad I have this forum to read, discuss, and parse through items where we can look at facts apart from the hype.  

 I agree that tomorrow through Sunday is tricky as well across OK, KS, and parts of MO. Will be interesting to watch the Chiefs game Sunday, even if you aren't a fan... just for weather's sake. :)

+1!!! Crazy what some "Professionals" will say or do for blog or post hits. I have primarily used NWS-SGF and this thread for my info. I would give both a A+. Clear, concise, not over or under hyped. I know we are all weather fanatics on this site but, personally I hope this storm busts for everyone. I realize that's not the case and some will get hit with some nasty conditions. It's been my personal experience that Ice storms while beautiful.......are not fun to live thru.

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Also, a shockingly high number of people don't know what an ice storm is.

1. "It's just rain."

2. "Yes, but it's below freezing"

1. "There's no sleet, it's not an ice storm, just rain"

2. "No sleet because the air is really warm above the ground so it melts and then freezes when it hits the ground."

1. "So it's just rain"

2. "No, it's freezing rain"

1. "It doesn't look like it's freezing to me"

2. "Then why are all the trees covered in ice?"

1. "Oh"

2. *facepalm*

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JoMo what's your call for STL and I- 70 north, looked like GEM had ice until mid afternoon Sunday with a good slug of moisture Sunday, I heard Euro was good but do not have access. Thanks!
Conditions 28 do 23 glaze on everything but roads look ok. Good batch just went thru. Troy, Illinois.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk

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4 minutes ago, STL Scott said:

JoMo what's your call for STL and I- 70 north, looked like GEM had ice until mid afternoon Sunday with a good slug of moisture Sunday, I heard Euro was good but do not have access. Thanks!
Conditions 28 do 23 glaze on everything but roads look ok. Good batch just went thru. Troy, Illinois.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk
 

You've still got another batch but that seems to be wanting to stay in STL and points south. Temps are really iffy on Sunday for STL. Too close to call.

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