Weatherdemon Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Interesting too that it shows Thurs 4z temps where the front is entering NW OK what they are now according to mesonet. Which basically shows the HRRR is slow on bringing the front in on the 23z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 32 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: She moved out there summer of 2008. She was there for the blizzard, tornado, most consecutive days over 100, & some other events. I picked your brain for several of them. This is her first ice storm & she's has a good attitude but worries about power outages and being home bound. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Ah, well, it's going to warm up on Sat-Sun and Empire Electric has a lot of experience with downed power lines, so I'm not too worried. It took empire 4 days to get power back up after the tornado to my area and that's with installing a bunch of new poles since the others were splinters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Dew point trends will also be important as wetbulbing will be the key to how far temps drop when the event gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Sorry for the spam but just read the latest NWS HWO: They've bumped up the ice totals a bit from this afternoon. PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE THE GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 If the Boston Mountains of Arkansas and northeast/east central Oklahoma are what's being seen in the higher resolution models as a type of boundary then they are about 50 to 130 miles off on the freezing line depending on which model you prefer. What subtle elevation effects are usually seen during these types of events are usually experienced around 10-12 miles due south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: If the Boston Mountains of Arkansas and northeast/east central Oklahoma are what's being seen in the higher resolution models as a type of boundary then they are about 50 to 130 miles off on the freezing line depending on which model you prefer. What subtle elevation effects are usually seen during these types of events are usually experienced around 10-12 miles due south of me. Are referring to the warm 'nose' in E OK/W Ark on the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 NWS Springfield's 72 hour Ice Accumulation forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Looks like the 00z NAM is warmer in my neck of the woods for Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 It appears for Kansas City this will be a Saturday night/Sunday morning event with most of the accumulation occurring during that time period. It's possible there will be some scattered light freezing drizzle overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Expecting ice accumulations of .25 to .50 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 54 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Are referring to the warm 'nose' in E OK/W Ark on the models? If it is a true warm nose then that's actually what it is. Not disputing that at all. I was just giving elevational references. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: If it is a true warm nose then that's actually what it is. Not disputing that at all. I was just giving elevational references. Understood, I was just seeing if you were referencing that as what you're saying made sense and that's why I quote nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 HRRR running 3-4 degrees colder than the NAM by 12z Thursday showing OKC at 29 and Tulsa at 30.Much colder and we will have sleet which is much better than ice.Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Either the GFS is going to be the spot on model with this storm or its temp profile is too warm. We will know in about 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 The 00z GFS confirms that the main freezing rain threat for Kansas City will come from 6pm Saturday until noon Sunday where over .50 could fall. There will be some light amounts prior to that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Ron Hearst mentions the winter storm watch being expanded south... wonder if that's his thinking or the weather service Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Anyone have updated what the Euro has tonight??Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 16 minutes ago, STL Scott said: Anyone have updated what the Euro has tonight?? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Doesn't start until 11:50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Yes I meant is anyone up who will be posting? Seems quiet on the forum? Thanks.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Nice write up by SGF in their overnight. Look for Warnings & Advisories around midday. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017 This front will then continue to march south this evening before stalling from northeastern Texas into far northern Mississippi. Cold air advection will continue behind this front across the Ozarks as Arctic high pressure strengthens across Minnesota. By late this evening, a low level jet and isentropic upglide will commence across southern Missouri as upper level low pressure digs south along the central California coast. We are expecting precipitation to break out across far southern Missouri and begin spreading north into the Highway 60 corridor by sunrise. We have a hunch that this precipitation may start sooner than some models are indicating...possibly even before midnight over parts of southern Missouri. Precipitation type will largely be freezing rain (or freezing drizzle) tonight as the freezing line should make it at least to the Missouri/Arkansas border. Our hunch is that it will actually make it farther south into northern Arkansas. There may be a few pockets of sleet mixed in as there will be some weak instability available. That band of precipitation will then slowly lift north through the Missouri Ozarks Friday morning and into Friday afternoon. The amount of additional re-development south of that band is somewhat in question as lifting mechanisms become a bit more questionable. Even at that, very light precipitation still remains a good bet south of that initial band. That freezing line may nudge a bit north during the day Friday, but we remain very skeptical of some model output and their aggressive northward surge to the freezing line. With northeast or east-northeast surface winds in place, cold air advection will continue and likely offset latent heat release of ice accretion. We are therefore expecting the threat for freezing rain to continue over most areas with the possible exception of far southern Missouri during the day on Friday. Synoptic scale lift will then begin to increase again from Friday night into Saturday. The fate of the freezing line will be a key player in precipitation type and continued ice accretion potential. We continue to go on the colder side of models regarding surface temperatures. Surface pressure gradients do become weaker which will decrease cold air advection potential. This may allow latent heat release from ice accretion to warm temperatures and slowly nudge that freezing line north across southern Missouri. However, confidence in its location still remains low for Friday night and especially Saturday. That upper level low will then swing out towards the Ozarks from Saturday night into Sunday which should support the true surface front beginning to shift north. This should result in rising temperatures across the area and a changeover to rain over all areas. Central Missouri will see the latest changeover, but we are thinking they should be all liquid by midday Sunday. We may even see some thunderstorms as we head into Monday. At this time, we expect the highest storm total ice accumulations to occur roughly along and north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Stockton to Rolla, Missouri line. This corridor will likely see a solid 0.50" to 0.75" with some areas pushing an inch of ice accumulation. South of this region, areas along and north of the Highway 60 corridor should see amounts in the 0.25" to 0.50" range. It should be noted that the Highway 60/Interstate 44 corridors are the general area of least confidence as that freezing line will likely be meandering across this area. Areas of far southern Missouri should see amounts from a thin glaze up to two tenths of an inch as the changeover to rain will occur much sooner. After collaboration with neighboring offices, we have decided to maintain the Winter Storm Watch for now. We want the 12Z models and the higher resolution/rapid refresh models to get a better handle on that front and air mass before making final decisions on warnings/advisories. Unless something drastically changes, we expect any warnings and advisories to be issued by around midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 06z NAM has trended a bit further south with the freezing line. GFS is still the warmest. The discrepancy with regards to temps for the event is still crazy for places like OKC, Tulsa, and Springfield (MO) with these two models. WFOs seem to be lining up closer toward NAM guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Here is a link to a WPC site, you can customize it to what your looking for and get percentages on ZR for your area. http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=48&ptype=icez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Local tv mets now catching the southern freezing line adjustment a bit here, too. Two separate stations concerned about icing now even into far N. Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 22 F this morning in OKC with a dewpoint of 14 F. I don't remember exactly what the models were showing but that seems colder than what I was seeing over the past few days. Regardless, there is nothing left to do now but wait to see where those temps and dewpoints are this time tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 The 12z NAM is in and has substantial ice accumulations across W OK, SW into Central KS....with slightly lesser amounts (.2-1/2") across Missouri. If these temps are 1 or 2 degrees colder, then this is drastically worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I am just not comfortable with this situation considering the variance in solutions from this system. Whoever said that it may be a nowcast situation was certainly right. I know most events usually are, but this one maybe more so than normal. To me, one of the key things I will be watching is if we warm up as forecast this afternoon. That will give me an indication if the cold air is a bit stronger than initially forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 16 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: I am just not comfortable with this situation considering the variance in solutions from this system. Whoever said that it may be a nowcast situation was certainly right. I know most events usually are, but this one maybe more so than normal. To me, one of the key things I will be watching is if we warm up as forecast this afternoon. That will give me an indication if the cold air is a bit stronger than initially forecast. I was thinking the same thing RE: This afternoon's high temps. I don't remember exactly, but early this week, they were calling for highs here in the 50s today. Yesterday, they forecast 48 F for today. Now, they just updated today's high to 42 F. As of this moment, we are still in the upper 20s in the immediate OKC area. I am now wondering if we will even get to 40 F today. If we stay colder today, it just means we will need less wetbulbing when the rain starts overnight. Since the rain is expected to be fairly light to start, if we are already at or near freezing, that just means more ice is going to accrete more quickly tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 NWS Springfield categorizes the ice risk as significant for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Well...GFS was a little off...already 28 in Joplin and 32 in Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, JMT417 said: Well...GFS was a little off...already 28 in Joplin and 32 in Springfield. This is just personal bias, but whenever the Euro shows one thing, and the GFS shows something much different, I'm usually going to side with the Euro. (As many others would too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Considering the widespread impact this is looking to have in the forum, would a dedicated thread be appropriate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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