rockchalk83 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, jojo762 said: How's the Euro looking for KC? 1.0" ice. Changes to liquid rain by Monday at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, STL Scott said: How is Euro in STL? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk .2-.4" total ice. Changes to liquid rain during the day Sunday. Would believe most of the ice happens on Friday afternoon-Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 With the Euro holding serve or even going slightly colder, along with the 12z NAM suite going colder, you have to think the GFS will start going colder soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said: What does anyone know about the WRF model? The one on the NWS STL page runs freezing line south of Tulsa and into NW AR and then basically parks there through the day Friday into Saturday. If memory serves me correctly it is version 3.4 (maybe 3.5), uses the ARW core, and is initialized from NAM and uses the NAM for the lateral boundary conditions. As a result it's domain will be dominated by the NAM forecast, but it does use a different numerical core. It's parameterization schemes are almost certainly more simplistic than the NAM so take the 2m temperature with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Still dont think it will be an issue for here at all(even if it does trend south or whatever), ground temps are probly sizzling from the heatwave thats ongoing lol. JoMo whats your temp up there today man? 69 imby currently just crazy for January! Whoever gets the ice, be safe!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Try here in OK its 68 here to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Very interesting. I don't know anything about the WRF but the temps shown there are as plausible as any other scenario. This pushes the front right up to the Boston Mountains and struggles to move it much further south. Could be an outlier at this point but worth watching the trend over the next 24 hours. Had a phenomenon when I lived in NC called CAD. Don't know if it exists in this neck of the woods. Basically back east if you had a HP parked N&E of the area it would funnel and pool cold surface air up against the spine of the Appalachian Mnts. I'm guessing the Boston Mnts run W to E not N to S but, if the HP was funneling air due S instead of SW. I wonder if it would have the same affect? If so the valley locations at the foot of theses Mnts would get clobbered. I also have no idea of elevation variation & realize it's not equal to the Apps. An example of this would be a temp in Asheville NC of say 34 while 1000 ft below Marion NC might be 29. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Watches up for N & W OK...and now SC KS. Looking for up to one inch of ice in SC KS thru Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 The ground temp argument may work for making it somewhat easier on travel (maybe), but it won't help keep the power on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 18z NAM continues the cold trend through hr 60. 1-3 degrees colder in OKC area over 12z which was 1-3 degrees colder than its 6z run. That's a fairly major colder shift in 2 runs, especially for areas that were riding the line between freezing rain and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: 18z NAM continues the cold trend through hr 60. 1-3 degrees colder in OKC area over 12z which was 1-3 degrees colder than its 6z run. That's a fairly major colder shift in 2 runs, especially for areas that were riding the line between freezing rain and rain. Yea could be bad in that area if it does indeed verify colder. I can see it happening easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 18z NAM colder @ 42 and fz line pushes further south. Temps 2-3 degrees colder than 12z run. Freezing line trying to push across MO/AR border this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, The Waterboy said: 18z NAM colder @ 42 and fz line pushes further south. Temps 2-3 degrees colder than 12z run. Freezing line trying to push across MO/AR border this run. I could see it getting into Benton co AR.. It has happened many times in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, WhiteoutWX said: 18z NAM continues the cold trend through hr 60. 1-3 degrees colder in OKC area over 12z which was 1-3 degrees colder than its 6z run. That's a fairly major colder shift in 2 runs, especially for areas that were riding the line between freezing rain and rain. I think it's fair to assume much of the I-44 corridor will stay subfreezing, at least during precip, for the period from overnight Thursday night through Saturday morning (perhaps even later Saturday?). The trend is there, and we know models always underestimate that initial cold push. The question is how much precip falls during that timeframe via overrunning, with the upper low still sitting way back over CA/AZ. QPF ranges anywhere from 0.1-0.75" or so, depending on the guidance and where you are. Overall, significant precip during this time looks spotty/convective and not something that can be relied upon at any point. If the OKC or TUL metro gets unlucky (lucky?) and they happen to be in a local maximum, it could get interesting Friday into Saturday. But heading into Sunday, the guidance has become unanimous that the upper low will eject into the central High Plains with major warming across most of our area. That's when the "real" QPF is forecast. So between wasting the majority of this system's precip on plain rain and the fact that we should completely melt any accretion off by Sunday, this seems a good bit less exciting than our traditional ice storms (ala 1/13/07 or 12/10/07). Unless there are some drastic changes down the final stretch, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, brettjrob said: I think it's fair to assume much of the I-44 corridor will stay subfreezing, at least during precip, for the period from overnight Thursday night through Saturday morning (perhaps even later Saturday?). The trend is there, and we know models always underestimate that initial cold push. The question is how much precip falls during that timeframe via overrunning, with the upper low still sitting way back over CA/AZ. QPF ranges anywhere from 0.1-0.75" or so, depending on the guidance and where you are. Overall, significant precip during this time looks spotty/convective and not something that can be relied upon at any point. If the OKC or TUL metro gets unlucky (lucky?) and they happen to be in a local maximum, it could get interesting Friday into Saturday. But heading into Sunday, the guidance has become unanimous that the upper low will eject into the central High Plains with major warming across most of our area. That's when the "real" QPF is forecast. So between wasting the majority of this system's precip on plain rain and the fact that we should completely melt any accretion off by Sunday, this seems a good bit less exciting than our traditional ice storms (ala 1/13/07 or 12/10/07). Unless there are some drastic changes down the final stretch, anyway. Agreed. The doomsday 1-2"+ ice storm projections of a few days ago seems pretty much completely off the table due to the stronger ejection of the final wave and subsequent warming. That said, areas further in north in Kansas or far northwest Oklahoma could maybe have a shot at staying subfreezing for that last wave and stand the best shot of something a little more major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Agreed. The doomsday 1-2"+ ice storm projections of a few days ago seems pretty much completely off the table due to the stronger ejection of the final wave and subsequent warming. That said, areas further in north in Kansas or far northwest Oklahoma could maybe have a shot at staying subfreezing for that last wave and stand the best shot of something a little more major. Yeah, it definitely looks like some swath up there to our NW will take a beating as the ULL approaches Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, brettjrob said: Yeah, it definitely looks like some swath up there to our NW will take a beating as the ULL approaches Sunday! Is there one thing we should be watching in the event -- such as temps at 925mb or wetbulb temp -- that would indicate to us what the trend is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 ICT just issued a WSW for much of their CWA through Sunday afternoon. " ICE ACCUMULATION...FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ICING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 18z GFS is a little colder at 12z Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolfe904 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Do you think Kansas City areas will go into a watch? I don't think any have been issued here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just wanted to say thank you for the discussion & model PBP! You guys are great! I can form some general opinions but nothing beats local knowledge. It's a tough situation with my Mom out there. She absolutely loves Joplin but has very little network of friends & no family to fall back on. So again thanks for the info!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, kwolfe904 said: Do you think Kansas City areas will go into a watch? I don't think any have been issued here. From KC's discussion: "In any case a winter weather watch or winter weather advisory will most likely be needed in the next 24 hours." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Just wanted to say thank you for the discussion & model PBP! You guys are great! I can form some general opinions but nothing beats local knowledge. It's a tough situation with my Mom out there. She absolutely loves Joplin but has very little network of friends & no family to fall back on. So again thanks for the info! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Was she out here for the 2007-2008 ice storms? Those were much worse than what's currently expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 hour ago, rockchalk83 said: Is there one thing we should be watching in the event -- such as temps at 925mb or wetbulb temp -- that would indicate to us what the trend is? It's tough to watch any one thing at this stage (more than 24 h out) because winter weather is so complex and changes in the model solutions have such nonlinear results. If there were a clear trend in the 500 mb evolution over the past 1-2 days, it would be useful to watch, but it seems like we've settled into just vacillating back and forth around the same general idea since yesterday. In general, the more "cut off" the upper low is from the northern jet, the tougher it will be to maintain cold air at the surface late in the event on Sunday and Monday. My personal opinion: I'd be very concerned about major icing in ICT this weekend. You may be on the far southeastern fringes of the blast zone on the latest GFS/Canadian/etc., but that usually ends up being the preferred zone in most ice storms around our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolfe904 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, JoMo said: From KC's discussion: "In any case a winter weather watch or winter weather advisory will most likely be needed in the next 24 hours." Thanks. Wasn't sure if it was lessening up on ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, JoMo said: From KC's discussion: "In any case a winter weather watch or winter weather advisory will most likely be needed in the next 24 hours." Almost guarantee they'll go with a WSW... no reason for a storm that could have as many impacts as this one to be WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 For Kansas City the GFS states .10 to .25 of ice while the colder Euro could be almost 1" of ice. These are significant differences and I believe the NWS has been waiting until better agreement to issue a watch. They do tend to lean to the euro and said most of the ice will come Saturday night and Sunday morning. Anything Friday and Saturday will be light and scattered across KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Was she out here for the 2007-2008 ice storms? Those were much worse than what's currently expected.She moved out there summer of 2008. She was there for the blizzard, tornado, most consecutive days over 100, & some other events. I picked your brain for several of them. This is her first ice storm & she has a good attitude but worries about power outages and being home bound. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 They have now expanded the WSW to include Tulsa county and Rogers county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 HRRR running 3-4 degrees colder than the NAM by 12z Thursday showing OKC at 29 and Tulsa at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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