KC metro Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 The heaviest ice accumulations on the 00z GFS are where the temps stay below freezing for the duration of the event. Western and northern Kansas, NW OK and extreme NW MO would be those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 00Z GEM was pretty nasty from NW OK through KS and into NW MO... drops nearly 2" of ice in Topeka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 NWS offices in SGF and STL the first to hoist Winter Storm Watches. They still believe models are overdoing surface temps by a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 00z Euro was still colder than the other models in central OK. A degree or two warmer in SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 27 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z Euro was still colder than the other models in central OK. A degree or two warmer in SW MO. Yep, unless there is a big shift NW AR, E OK, and far S MO should be spared. Still... a couple of degrees will make a huge difference. Starting to look likely that north of say US 160 that a big icing event is going to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 NWS in KC leaning towards the colder Euro for now meaning a longer duration of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, KC metro said: NWS in KC leaning towards the colder Euro for now meaning a longer duration of freezing rain. It is interesting to see the dichotomy in offices. NWS Wichita seems to be going with a mix of GFS and Euro, while all the neighbors are going with the Euro. Verbatim, if the Euro comes to fruition, look out. My suspicion is that if the Euro holds serve at 12z...we will likely see watches expanded with the afternoon packages, given the onset of winter precip would be under 48 hours (36 in others) for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Interesting that the 12z 4KM NAM is trending toward the EURO in terms of temps in SW MO and NW AR. Not sure about OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 52 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Interesting that the 12z 4KM NAM is trending toward the EURO in terms of temps in SW MO and NW AR. Not sure about OK. All of the NAM's showed a fairly significant cold trend at 12z in OK. Basically keeps the entire OKC metro below freezing through at least 00z Saturday. Previous runs had the freezing line shifting fairly quickly northwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Springfield NWS has been bitten by this before. The NE flow usually keeps a constant supply of lower dewpoints (for wetbulbing) and colder air advecting into their forecast area. Rain north of the front usually keeps the front farther south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, JoMo said: Springfield NWS has been bitten by this before. The NE flow usually keeps a constant supply of lower dewpoints (for wetbulbing) and colder air advecting into their forecast area. Rain north of the front usually keeps the front farther south as well. Do you think the watch should be further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, MUWX said: Do you think the watch should be further south? No idea. I mean it's possible they might, once the event gets closer. We're talking a degree or two making the difference between ice and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: No idea. I mean it's possible they might, once the event gets closer. We're talking a degree or two making the difference between ice and rain. I think this is a situation where county-wide advisories and warnings are a bit misleading. You could have a situation where the northern half of, for example, Stone County MO meets the criteria but the southern half doesn't. I think where the NWS has the watch right now is a good placement. I do think that it is subject to shifting based on what 00z evening runs and 12z morning runs tomorrow show. Looks like it may take that long before things are fully sampled, according to a local met. I will be interested to see what Tulsa does. They have a tough call to make. OKC is out now with a watch for much of their forecast area, including the greater OKC metro and Lawton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 GFS is marginally colder than its previous runs. Barely enough to call it a step towards other models but maybe it's the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 FWIW, the 3K NAM is pretty accurate with current temps behind the front and the 4K is a little cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 12z Canadian much colder than its previous run but still warmer than NAM/Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 What does anyone know about the WRF model? The one on the NWS STL page runs freezing line south of Tulsa and into NW AR and then basically parks there through the day Friday into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said: Interesting that the 12z 4KM NAM is trending toward the EURO in terms of temps in SW MO and NW AR. Not sure about OK. and we are now getting into the NAM's wheelhouse. I wouldn't give the NAM a second thought at 84 hours, but we are now within 48 hours so it is time to start considering it... especially when it's in league with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, NJ_Ken said: and we are now getting into the NAM's wheelhouse. I wouldn't give the NAM a second thought at 84 hours, but we are now within 48 hours so it is time to start considering it... especially when it's in league with the Euro. The NAM has actually been about as consistent with the EURO even at 84 hour leads for this event. I've been mildly impressed. Whether it's right or not remains to be seen though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 OUN has put up watches for a big chunk of their forecast area, pretty much the I-44 corridor and everything north and west. Based on some of their other products, it would appear that they think the more serious icing won't start until 20 miles or so north and west of I-44 but, as they should, they are being cautious for now until this forecast becomes clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said: What does anyone know about the WRF model? The one on the NWS STL page runs freezing line south of Tulsa and into NW AR and then basically parks there through the day Friday into Saturday. Can you provide the link on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Can you provide the link on this? http://w2.weather.gov/lsx/wrf_display Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Thru 00z Sunday on the Euro...the I-44 corridor from SGF-TUL-OKC-Lawton is still in ice. In fact, 1/4 to more than 1 inch of ice in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: http://w2.weather.gov/lsx/wrf_display Very interesting. I don't know anything about the WRF but the temps shown there are as plausible as any other scenario. This pushes the front right up to the Boston Mountains and struggles to move it much further south. Could be an outlier at this point but worth watching the trend over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said: Thru 00z Sunday on the Euro...the I-44 corridor from SGF-TUL-OKC-Lawton is still in ice. In fact, 1/4 to more than 1 inch of ice in that area. It looks like it pushed the ice up about 15 miles north in Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, Weatherdemon said: It looks like it pushed the ice up about 15 miles north in Tulsa. It's going to be a very close shave for T-town, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Joplin is around 33-34 for Friday so close here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 12Z Euro would bring a devastating ice storm to Oklahoma City. It drops an inch of ice on the north side of Norman while nothing in Noble. Also of note is that it has 30-35 MPH wind gusts in that timeframe. That amount of ice plus wind would be absoluting crippling on infrastructure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 How's the Euro looking for KC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 How is Euro in STL?Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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