KC metro Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Chinook said: The Euro has ice in a lot of places, but it doesn't have those crazy 3" of ice like it did on yesterday's runs. Also, I think the graphics that I am seeing involve a combined sleet and freezing rain. I am guessing that the big patch of ice accumulation near OKC is all **freezing rain**. Overall thinking-- still some ice threat in OKC, Norman, and Springfield MO, perhaps a lot. The Euro has a complex storm system, with snow developing far west in KS and Nebraska and lower elevations of Colorado late in the storm. Ice develops in southern Missouri early in the storm. A line from Wichita KS to Falls City NE-- might want to watch out for over 0.25" of sleet/freezing rain. Is that graphic trying to dry slot KC? Would seem odd with widespread overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Again with the caveat that I'm a marginal model reader. The 6Z GFS looks like ZR for most of KS & MO (except for S MO). Bullseye for Central KS with up to 2". A portion of N & W OK get hit. Total QPF for this system is amazing. Not familiar with your weather this time of year but the deviations have to be thru the roof for TX, OK, KS , & MO. Some areas up to 5" in January! Also found this in the SGF overnight disco: As we get into later Friday and this weekend, the overall setup is still in question. Initially, the main focus will be on the placement of that Arctic high. Global models almost always struggle with low level temperature gradients in situations like this as they "smooth" the gradient far too much. With that surface front/trough likely located to the south of the Missouri Ozarks along with northeast surface winds in place, we have gone on the cold side regarding temperatures from Friday afternoon into Saturday...and may still not be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolfe904 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Can anyone give me a few weather personalities or bloggers to follow with twitter and Facebook? I'm from the SE and it doesn't help much living in the KC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 29 minutes ago, kwolfe904 said: Can anyone give me a few weather personalities or bloggers to follow with twitter and Facebook? I'm from the SE and it doesn't help much living in the KC area. I'm from Alabama and moved up here recently. I follow Nick Bender with KMBC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 12z NAM looks very much like it is wanting to following the GFS in terms of temp trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: 12z NAM looks very much like it is wanting to following the GFS in terms of temp trends. Not sure what region you are looking at but at least in OK it is still running about 10 degrees colder than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Not sure what region you are looking at but at least in OK it is still running about 10 degrees colder than the GFS Should have clarified... in SW MO. It (NAM) is warmer for Springfield and Joplin in this morning's run that it's 00z or 06z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Should have clarified... in SW MO. It (NAM) is warmer for Springfield and Joplin in this morning's run that it's 00z or 06z runs. When comparing the 12z NAM to the 06z GFS and 00z Canadian at the same time frame (00z Saturday,) the NAM is still the coldest in SW MO, running 5-10 degrees colder than both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 GFS coming in colder thru 72, but still significantly warmer than NAM/Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearcat97 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 hours ago, kwolfe904 said: Can anyone give me a few weather personalities or bloggers to follow with twitter and Facebook? I'm from the SE and it doesn't help much living in the KC area. Here are some of the weather personalities on Twitter Kansas City Joe Lauria Channel 4 Chris Suchan Channel 5 Bryan Busby Channel 9 Gary Lezak Channel 41 I know Channel 4 and 5 have an overall weather twitter @kctv5weather, @fox4wx, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 12z GFS still a major ice storm for the entire state of KS, northwest OK, and much of MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Accumulated freezing rain on the 12z GFS. Insane 2+" totals across western KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 7 hours ago, KC metro said: Is that graphic trying to dry slot KC? Would seem odd with widespread overrunning. KC has about 0.25" of ice, some of the surrounding area has 0.21". Some of the area around that has >0.25". As usual, knowing exact amounts of freezing rain/sleet some 4-6 days in advance is not possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 12z GEM is similar to the GFS except a bit more ice down near OKC (0.16) and more precip in northern MO... KC (0.5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Looks like southern Missouri is going to miss out on yet another winter storm. I think we actually want to miss this one but our inability to get a decent winter storm is pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: Looks like southern Missouri is going to miss out on yet another winter storm. I think we actually want to miss this one but our inability to get a decent winter storm is pretty crazy. No blocking (+AO) plus (-PNA) plus (La Nina) equals a storm track to our west and north primarily. The AO *should* have been negative this winter if the Snow Advance Index was actually right, but it looks like Judah Cohen obviously missed something in his research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Accumulated freezing rain on the 12z GEM. Pretty similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Models are pretty consistent that those who live in and around KC will receive between .25 and .50 of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Well hmm... Euro looks a bit colder (compared to other models) through at least Sat night.... This is... disturbing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 The main thing I'm picking up for SC KS is that there will be two rounds: one Friday into Saturday midday, the second late Saturday night into early Monday morning. Temps are going to be CRUCIAL.. Worse case scenario is this shallow arctic airmass will not modify as quickly as GFS/Canadian on the southern edge, with the southern edge being farther south (happens all too often)... and in that scenario a much wider region of freezing rain. That's scary. and it's very much on the table. That will be a nowcast thing, me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 19 minutes ago, JoMo said: Well hmm... Euro looks a bit colder (compared to other models) through at least Sat night.... This is... disturbing.. Thanks for the update JoMo. Where does the Euro have the freezing line setting up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 12z Euro has a huge amount of snow in the western 1/3 of Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, natecast said: Thanks for the update JoMo. Where does the Euro have the freezing line setting up? That's difficult to say. OKC kind of rides the line from Fri evening through Sat night. It's going to warm up on Sunday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Hey can you tell me what the Euro is showing for the STL area. Thank you I appreciate all your guys analysis! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just now, STL Scott said: Hey can you tell me what the Euro is showing for the STL area. Thank you I appreciate all your guys analysis! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Freezing rain Fri into Saturday early afternoon. A break, followed by more icing late Saturday night into Sunday. Rain Sunday evening into Monday. 3-4" precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Thank you. Do you have an idea how much ice? <.50->Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Of that 3- 4. Over .5- 1.0 Of ice?Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just now, STL Scott said: Of that 3- 4. Over .5- 1.0 Of ice? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk I'm not able to find it...but .5-1.0" of ice looked possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 It'll probably change, plus St. Louis is also one of those areas right on the freezing line a lot of the time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Gotcha. Thank you. I have several events at my work on Saturday that I need to probably start making alternate plans/reschedule if forecasts hold. I appreciate everyone posting analysis of the Euro.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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