Spot Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cerakoter1984 said: I'd still be anticipating model shifts back to the south and east over the next 2 days. Just a personal opinion. Well we need the rain so it does need to shift SE just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 18z GFS much warmer. At first glance GEM looks about the same as its 12z run. Where do you get 18z GEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Where do you get 18z GEM? Here you go: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Personally, I do not trust the GFS temperature outputs. At all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Here you go: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Unless I'm doing something wrong, it looks like it reverts to the 12z run when you try to access maps beyond 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Something to keep in mind with this system... Heavier precipitation tends to pull warmer air down from above. We're going to probably need temps around 30 degrees before any major icing issues start. Above that and the heavier precipitation will probably help offset ice potential to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 The Canadians do not have an operational global model that runs at the 18Z cycle. It's probably their mesoscale model or an experimental one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Euro Weeklies today do have the eastern trough developing as expected at the end of Jan into Feb. Working towards a -AO at times and a-EPO in early Feb. Looks to be a +PNA as well. Control run has numerous low pressure systems passing south of us which is usually a good sign. Edit: Above normal until the end of Jan and then below normal through Mid-Feb.... then maybe slightly above normal to end Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 JoMo..im pretty sure this all bodes well for the forum area for winter storms? Correct..Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 minute ago, STL Scott said: JoMo..im pretty sure this all bodes well for the forum area for winter storms? Correct.. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Should be, as long as the trough position is far enough west. The -EPO is always good as it drops cold air south. -AO is always good as well. The +PNA can be a bit troublesome depending on it's location. But the control run having storms/low pressure passing to our south is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Thanks for updates I'm really hoping this storm starts our winter cycle, I realize we have a couple weeks period/pattern change next couple of weeks. I also heard there was a strasphoric warming event happening as well which usually bodes well 3- 4 weeks after..will see. Check back after championship game hoping models trend colder...Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Ok 00z NAM time to work your magi.... err try your best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Hey everyone. I have been out of pocket on the road the last 36 hours or so (and being away from this thread and the models was driving me crazy... this is an awful habit...err, hobby). Quick question about the CIPS analogs, as I have been looking at them. Aren't they based off of the GFS model? I thought I remember that from somewhere. Thanks for your help in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Hey everyone. I have been out of pocket on the road the last 36 hours or so (and being away from this thread and the models was driving me crazy... this is an awful habit...err, hobby). Quick question about the CIPS analogs, as I have been looking at them. Aren't they based off of the GFS model? I thought I remember that from somewhere. Thanks for your help in advance. Yeah, I think NAM short range and GFS longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 59 minutes ago, JoMo said: Ok 00z NAM time to work your magi.... err try your best. Looks like it came in a degree or two colder in OK with freezing rain starting at 3am Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 By 6am there is suppose to be an accumulation of .06 inches of ice. Right before drive time. Many schools start school around the 7:25 7:30 time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, lokee said: By 6am there is suppose to be an accumulation of .06 inches of ice. Right before drive time. Many schools start school around the 7:25 7:30 time range. It will be in the 60's and 70's on the days leading up to this event. Nothing will be accumulating on roadways until much later into the event unless you are way up in western Oklahoma or central Kansas where surface temps will be in the teens and lower twenties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: It will be in the 60's and 70's on the days leading up to this event. Nothing will be accumulating on roadways until much later into the event unless you are way up in western Oklahoma or central Kansas where surface temps will be in the teens and lower twenties. Yea, I understand that. As a superintendent what would the call be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just now, lokee said: Yea, I understand that. As a superintendent what would the call be? To test the roads and forecast Friday morning. What you're asking can't be determined right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: To test the roads and forecast Friday morning. What you're asking can't be determined right now. Yeah, too early to tell for sure right now... but I'd probably cancel school just out of fear for how quickly things could deteriorate throughout the day, especially given how late buses are usually out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 00Z GFS come in warm... most of us would be above freezing for much of the precip on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 00Z GFS come in warm... most of us would be above freezing for much of the precip on Saturday. Hmm. The 18z GFS had quite a bit of ice accumulation for Lincoln and Omaha NE. I wonder if this run will continue to trend toward that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 00Z GFS come in warm... most of us would be above freezing for much of the precip on Saturday. Yeah wayyyyy warm. Amazing how different it is than the NAM/GEM/Euro. Barely gets the freezing line into Oklahoma. The difference is how much more amped up the SE ridge is, partly due to how much deeper the trough is digging on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 00z GEM is going to be warmer as well. You've been spared this run OKC. KC/STL still in line for some frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Would the NFL decision-makers suspend the Chiefs vs Steelers game for too much ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, Chinook said: Would the NFL decision-makers suspend the Chiefs vs Steelers game for too much ice? I've never heard of the NFL suspending a game for winter weather. But I assume it's possible. Doubt it'll happen, especially since it's a playoff game. What the king does with its 00z run might continue or completely halt the hype train on this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 00z Canadian has 1.7" of ice north of Dodge City, and then some significant ice way up into Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 GEM had a two part system...anyone posting Euro info? Off topic but what a fantastic entertaining championship!!Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 I could post a text description of the Euro prediction. Maybe wait 20-40 minutes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 The Euro has ice in a lot of places, but it doesn't have those crazy 3" of ice like it did on yesterday's runs. Also, I think the graphics that I am seeing involve a combined sleet and freezing rain. I am guessing that the big patch of ice accumulation near OKC is all **freezing rain**. Overall thinking-- still some ice threat in OKC, Norman, and Springfield MO, perhaps a lot. The Euro has a complex storm system, with snow developing far west in KS and Nebraska and lower elevations of Colorado late in the storm. Ice develops in southern Missouri early in the storm. A line from Wichita KS to Falls City NE-- might want to watch out for over 0.25" of sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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