jojo762 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Cold air starts to erode after Saturday on the GFS too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 The trend has been towards a stronger, more consolidated, further west ejection on the GFS which is why you see the warmup as the strong southerly flow basically just overpowers the cold wedge. Will see if 12z Euro does the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 There are still major differences between the GFS and GEM with the push of the cold front at hour 96. Here is a quick breakdown: CITY GFS GEM Joplin 31 21 Tulsa 31 25 Bentonville 36 35 OKC 32 27 KC 24 15 STL 28 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 12z Euro is going to be colder/farther south at the start. Major icing in Joplin on Fri... A little warmer/farther north Fri night into Sat though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro is going to be colder/farther south at the start. Major icing in Joplin on Fri... A little warmer/farther north Fri night into Sat though. How far south do below fz temps push? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: How far south do below fz temps push? Far NW AR but it'll warm up shortly after it does, at least on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 How does Monett fair on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 How about STL on the Euro?? ThanksSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Yeah Euro is colder for OKC metro. Pretty much stays below freezing for the entire duration. It is even showing some CAPE sneaking into the area and a squall line with the final wave as temperatures are still below freezing. Not sure I believe that but yikes if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, STL Scott said: How about STL on the Euro?? Thanks Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk +/- an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Damn that's allot of ice..starts Friday? Ends?? The ice? Any snow or sleet? Appreciate your updates. Thank youSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Total precip is down this run. There's an area across Northern OK and parts of NE OK and into SE KS that look to be under the gun for most precip. That area looks to get about 3-4" and it looks frozen. Some guesses since the color table is so close (all/most probably 'frozen' precip'): Monett/Joplin/Springfield area will get frozen stuff on Fri but rise above freezing Fri night into Sat. Looks like around 0.5-1" with the most being on the I-44 corridor. OKC looks to remain frozen through most of the event with heavy accumulations. 2-3" Far NW AR might get some freezing stuff at onset but goes above freezing pretty quickly. St. Louis area looks to get hit pretty hard before it makes it above freezing on Sat.. 1-2" frozen stuff. KC looks to remain below freezing through entire event... looks like 1.5-2" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Jomo, what does it show for Tulsa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Thank you I appreciate it. Would love it to be snow. NWS in Stl.is saying more snow on Friday..but I trust our forum more. If it's ice I guess the only plus will be I may not have to be open on Sat/Sun so I can watch all the divisional playoff games....Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, ouamber said: Jomo, what does it show for Tulsa? Starts as freezing rain, turns to rain on Friday and stays that way throughout. Greatest potential for major icing is NW of 44 and west of 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Thanks for all the info JoMo! I'm at work and running blind as far as models go. I know you said up to 1" of ZR for Joplin. What does the total qpf look like for Joplin on the 12Z euro? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Tulsa is difficult because it's so close, looks like mostly rain though. If there's a small shift SE of the freezing line, Tulsa will probably get a lot more frozen, most of the frozen is just off to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, NavarreDon said: Thanks for all the info JoMo! I'm at work and running blind as far as models go. I know you said up to 1" of ZR for Joplin. What does the total qpf look like for Joplin on the 12Z euro? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Probably somewhere around 2-3" total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 OKC looks like bullseye as far as major population centers go on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 As we have pointed out this is an extremely complicated forecast for mets and the NWS offices. Way more so than snow. Models almost NEVER (and I think we all agree it's ok to say never in this scenario) are correct with the extent of shallow cold air masses. My 40 years of experience in the past is that cold air has no trouble bleeding SE until it hits the Ozark Mountains in NW AR and Southern MO. Benton Co in far NWAR is usually the battleground in my area. We also know that warm air advection from the south will play a big role as well depending on how strong it is and if the cold air at the surface can hang around. I wouldn't be surprised to see a sharp cutoff between heavy amounts of ice and a cold rain. Where that sets up remains to be seen. We should all use caution at this point until we get within 24 hours or less. I think the major thing that appears to be a given is that someone on this board is going to experience a crippling amount of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 It seems the general thinking that the freezing line may be as much as 100 miles south of where the GFS and Euro are placing it, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: It seems the general thinking that the freezing line may be as much as 100 miles south of where the GFS and Euro are placing it, correct? That's possible with the initial push of the front. Some places may start with freezing rain but the cold air will begin to erode and move northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: It seems the general thinking that the freezing line may be as much as 100 miles south of where the GFS and Euro are placing it, correct? It's hard to say...the 18z NAM is running about 50 miles south with the front so far and it usually has a better handle on these setups. But it's still a bit far out in range a lot can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, The Waterboy said: As we have pointed out this is an extremely complicated forecast for mets and the NWS offices. Way more so than snow. Models almost NEVER (and I think we all agree it's ok to say never in this scenario) are correct with the extent of shallow cold air masses. My 40 years of experience in the past is that cold air has no trouble bleeding SE until it hits the Ozark Mountains in NW AR and Southern MO. Benton Co in far NWAR is usually the battleground in my area. We also know that warm air advection from the south will play a big role as well depending on how strong it is and if the cold air at the surface can hang around. I wouldn't be surprised to see a sharp cutoff between heavy amounts of ice and a cold rain. Where that sets up remains to be seen. We should all use caution at this point until we get within 24 hours or less. I think the major thing that appears to be a given is that someone on this board is going to experience a crippling amount of ice. Couldn't have said it any better myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 25 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: It's hard to say...the 18z NAM is running about 50 miles south with the front so far and it usually has a better handle on these setups. But it's still a bit far out in range a lot can change. Thanks. Just compared the 18z NAM at 78 hours and the 12z GFS at 84 hours. It looks like the NAM is certainly taking the initial front further south with it being out of OK except for LeFlore county at this time where are the GFS has it still north of I40 The NAM has the freezing line in NC OK whereas the GFS has the freezing line just south of Wichita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Springfield, MO had a great discussion today. They are looking for a lot more model changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travisstorma Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 TUL AFD looks like they favor the EC / Canadian temperature profile and the GFS precipitation numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 18z GFS much warmer. At first glance GEM looks about the same as its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 I'd still be anticipating model shifts back to the south and east over the next 2 days. Just a personal opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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