ouamber Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 So Tulsa gets plain old rain if you combine 12Z Euro and 0zGFS. Good! No thank you on the ice! My only concern is if this thing still pulls the colder air further SE than expected. What a nightmare to try to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icestorm2009 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 I'm certain the models haven't settled on a solution 5 days out. If so, it would be a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, jhamps10 said: Actually OKC is right on the freezing line this run for a lot of it. Some ice however maybe 1/4" before warming up above freezing.. Canadian County on the other hand, but so lucky.. Thanks for the info. I've seen it said the past couple of days, the cold air usually pushes a few counties further south and east than the models indicate. Of course, we're still talking 5 days away. Lots of model watching to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 00z GEM really cranks up the juice this run. Much more precip than it's previous runs. Looks to keep OKC below freezing with a ton of ice falling. Southern KS as well. Problematic for my area as temps are around freezing with a decent amount of precip before it warms as the system comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Heading up to KC Friday to spend the weekend, and go to the chiefs divisional playoff game Sunday, so all this is bitter sweet to me, want wintry weather, but don't want it to become too problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Heading up to KC Friday to spend the weekend, and go to the chiefs divisional playoff game Sunday, so all this is bitter sweet to me, want wintry weather, but don't want it to become too problematic. "Ice Bowl"... but with actual ice, everywhere, and falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 A good run for northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. On to the ensembles and euro. A ton will probably still change but that was pretty close to the analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 00z GEM has about 6-7" of rain it looks like in NW AR and E OK. Maybe a bit frozen but most should be just rain. Looks like 3" or so around OKC which looks to stay below freezing. Similar amounts up into KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Just now, JoMo said: "Ice Bowl"... but with actual ice, everywhere, and falling from the sky. Sigh... Really hoping that people still show up to the game. But at least the drive up there should be simple Friday morning. But driving back Sunday might be impossible. And, wow @ the 00Z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Looks like here in STL we could get hit hard to. I'm on NE side in Illinois..do you all see the same? Especially if GEM verified? Thanks for all your updates..Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Anyone be around to post Euro analysis? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, STL Scott said: Looks like here in STL we could get hit hard to. I'm on NE side in Illinois..do you all see the same? Especially if GEM verified? Thanks for all your updates.. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Yeah, St. Louis would probably get freezing rain on the GFS/GEM but would rise above freezing as the system kicks out. About 0.5-0.75 freezing rain on GEM and 0.25 to 0.35 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z GEM has about 6-7" of rain it looks like in NW AR and E OK. Maybe a bit frozen but most should be just rain. Looks like 3" or so around OKC which looks to stay below freezing. Similar amounts up into KS. I really can't imagine 3" of rain all below freezing. Ugh. I've been through some doozies but that would take the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, STL Scott said: Anyone be around to post Euro analysis? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk I don't have access to the ice portion so wouldn't do much good really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Thanks for update...lots of model riding this weekSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 And good grief at the temps right before this, almost 70 in freakin january....disgusting!!!! I dont know, if those temps happen the ground is going to be so warm so I am really not too concerned about this right now. Just get missed here by everything so I will wait til I turn panic mode on until about thursday or so lol. 70 though, seriously! Good grief I have never seen these kinda temps in January before, never!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 25 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: And good grief at the temps right before this, almost 70 in freakin january....disgusting!!!! I dont know, if those temps happen the ground is going to be so warm so I am really not too concerned about this right now. Just get missed here by everything so I will wait til I turn panic mode on until about thursday or so lol. 70 though, seriously! Good grief I have never seen these kinda temps in January before, never!!!! The random 65-70 degree day pops up pretty regularly in January around here actually. Most years ive remembered have had at least one in January. I'm actually going to enjoy it this year since we haven't blowtorched our way to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Euro going to be a lot different for sure this run. Looks like it moves the ice back east to I44 and as of now on this run its still icing Monday. It doesnt oush the system out. Just a long moisture plume for days. Ice totals are going to be much worse vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Guess I made it up until the Euro... 00z Euro is going to be a bit colder (farther south) with the front and initial precip Thurs night/Fri morning. Freezing line is still NW of OKC... and runs up along the OK/KS border, across Joplin and then across southern Missouri. This is probably going to be a different solution because the system is going to get sheared out due to energy digging into it's backside this run.... Yeah that's going to get complicated because it's merging multiple pieces of energy, etc... Yeah, I don't really know how to describe this other than a long duration heavy frozen precip event that's a bit farther east than the 12z run. Temps may rise above freezing in SW MO and OK on Sunday but will probably go back below freezing Sunday evening/night. OKC looks icy, KC looks icy, Joplin looks icy but will be right on the line, as well as Tulsa. St. Louis will get some ice but should rise above freezing at some point. Crazy Crazy frozen and total precip amounts...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Saw a sounding that had Columbia, MO over 4 inches of freezing rain. That's horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 hours ago, natecast said: Thanks for the info. I've seen it said the past couple of days, the cold air usually pushes a few counties further south and east than the models indicate. Of course, we're still talking 5 days away. Lots of model watching to go... I was going to make this same point. I am relative newby to the southern plains but it seems like the models consistently underplay the strength and speed of the cold air push in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Sheesh, this is sounding like the December 2007 ice storm. Freezing rain started early Saturday for that one and kept right on falling through the following Monday with temps in the 20s throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Looks like SGF is starting to sound a alarm. Here is a portion of the overnight disco: At this point in the forecast, models have been slow to find a consensus in how they want to handle the storm system for the end of the week into the weekend. There remains differences in total QPF, temperatures aloft and at the surface, and ultimately precipitation type and accumulations. While confidence remains low at this time in any one particular scenario, the larger scale setup for the end of the week does bring elevated concerns for wintry weather. This could include freezing rain, sleet, and some snow. A cold airmass will filter into the region behind Thursday`s front with surface temperatures Friday morning falling into the middle 20s to around 30 degrees. Highs during the day Friday will not warm much as the front attempts to slide back north across Arkansas. This will keep the region under overcast cloud cover and bring the potential for some precipitation. Surface winds should remain out of the north aiding in cold air advection into the Ozarks through the day Friday. Through Friday, the front slowly lifts north and becomes the focusing mechanism for precipitation to develop across northern Arkansas, southern Missouri and Kansas. How far the front will make it depends a great deal on the strength of the arctic high that will be in place to the north of Missouri and the southerly winds from the Gulf. These southerly winds will continue into Saturday and Sunday as the front essentially stalls across the region as the upper level flow becomes parallel to the front. Despite uncertainty in ultimate precipitation types and amounts, it looks as though the period from Friday through the weekend and possible into early next week looks rather wet/wintry and raw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Usual caveats long range NAM and what not, but at 84 hours it's at least 50 miles further south with the front in Oklahoma than the GFS. Will be interesting to compare the two solutions in the coming days. The NAM usually handles these shallow cold air masses better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 5 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Saw a sounding that had Columbia, MO over 4 inches of freezing rain. That's horrible. Just what I wanted to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 If I'm reading it correctly, Tulsa actually mentions the possiblilty of greater that 1 inch of freezing rain northwest of l44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Im glad its just going to be a good soaking rain here.. We need it bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said: Usual caveats long range NAM and what not, but at 84 hours it's at least 50 miles further south with the front in Oklahoma than the GFS. Will be interesting to compare the two solutions in the coming days. The NAM usually handles these shallow cold air masses better than the GFS. the 12z NAM/GFS is showing the same thing.. Good point on the NAM handling cold air better than GFS usually, Long range or not it's a valid point to make here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Looks to have been a 'NW trend' with the GEM/GFS this morning. GEM still hits central OK pretty hard with 1.5" in OKC.. KC gets pretty lucky on the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Freezing rain accumulations per the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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