Wx 24/7 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Glad I don't have to officially forecast this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 AFDs from our local WFOs will be fun over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 I have already seen much misinformation and lack of context to weather information floating around Twitter and Facebook that it annoys the crap out of me. People posting clown maps without understanding them leading people to think we are going to get 47" of snow! The other thing of concern is that in a snow scenario, while track does matter... the impacts are fairly short lived. In an ice situation, with the QPF being modeled, the track means the difference in power and no power for possibly a couple of weeks. The temp line shifts are so important but likely won't be completely worked out until much closer to the event (unless models start trending this some obscure direction, which looks unlikely). Either way, this is a situation that needs to be monitored and I hope we will all do our part to responsibly share info on social media to help combat the craziness that has already started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 I don't know if this has been mentioned- the 00z and 12z Euro have a lot of ice from around OKC and northwest of OKC, all the way into the Midwest, going towards Pittsburgh. The 12z GFS has the freezing rain and sleet in a corridor about 50 mi east of OKC, to southwest and southern Missouri, going towards Terre Haute IN. As usual, lots of time for the models to figure this out. I certainly don't wish any of you guys to have large amounts of tree damage or power outages. I could post the accumulation maps for the GFS if you want. I don't think I'm allowed to post the Euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 21 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: I have already seen much misinformation and lack of context to weather information floating around Twitter and Facebook that it annoys the crap out of me. People posting clown maps without understanding them leading people to think we are going to get 47" of snow! The other thing of concern is that in a snow scenario, while track does matter... the impacts are fairly short lived. In an ice situation, with the QPF being modeled, the track means the difference in power and no power for possibly a couple of weeks. The temp line shifts are so important but likely won't be completely worked out until much closer to the event (unless models start trending this some obscure direction, which looks unlikely). Either way, this is a situation that needs to be monitored and I hope we will all do our part to responsibly share info on social media to help combat the craziness that has already started. Truth. I think stating a threat that it is a very realistic one at this point is all you should really do. If you post a map on social media, it better have a heck of a lot more than a twitter paragraph with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 I will watch what all you guys post in the coming days. JoMo stated a lot of stuff earlier thats so true when it comes to ice storms regarding surface temps staying at freezing or a little below if we already have ice on stuff(unless it really blowtorches or the temp rises extreme levels). These things are so so hard to predict almost like tornados it makes me feel! While I am desperate for something this winter, not sure if I want tons of ice. A little I can handle but not excessive amounts to cause chaos! Start temps are going to be key and time of day I think as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 There's still a lot of different solutions available for the winter storm on the Euro ensemble. Looking ahead after the big winter storm.... Looks like it's going to thaw out. Probably not the end of winter though as the progression would lift the ridge into a -AO position by the end of Jan into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: There's still a lot of different solutions available for the winter storm on the Euro ensemble. Looking ahead after the big winter storm.... Looks like it's going to thaw out. Probably not the end of winter though as the progression would lift the ridge into a -AO position by the end of Jan into Feb. Cosgrove stated in his newsletter yesterday we could see the trough and cold become more prominent in the central and eastern US late Jan on thru most of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Cosgrove stated in his newsletter yesterday we could see the trough and cold become more prominent in the central and eastern US late Jan on thru most of Feb. Yeah, if it follows the weeklies, it will eventually build back into a -EPO with a +PNA so the trough will be in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 If we get everything to line up right, the last week of January through most of February could be pretty fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 32 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Cosgrove stated in his newsletter yesterday we could see the trough and cold become more prominent in the central and eastern US late Jan on thru most of Feb. Maybe this will be a start to things that will follow lol, a late running winter. Have seen some huge snow storms in late feb. and march but the march ones dont stick around long cause of the darn sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Cerakoter1984 said: If we get everything to line up right, the last week of January through most of February could be pretty fun. Certainly hope so, we need to salvage this winter somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 18z GFS @120 coming in further SE with the ice into AR, N TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 18z GFS and 12z Euro are worlds apart when it comes to where the main icing will take place. 18z GFS is further southeast with the ice accumulation whereas the euro moved to the northwest. It'll all depend out how far south the front can make it. I'm leaning towards the farther south solution because models tend to underestimate shallow cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 32 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 18z GFS @120 coming in further SE with the ice into AR, N TX. Certainly not the best at reading models but, definitely looks S & E and a tad bit slower. I'm not seeing the amount of qpf as ZR that the 12Z had but a crippler none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 GFS begins breaking out precip in AR @102. Still "raining" at 174. 3 days later! Well over 5 inches QPF from SE OK up through AR into SE MO. Still wants to erode the cold air with WAA but as we've discussed a lot today that may be overdone. 18z GEM that I can see only runs out to 120 and things are just getting started. Not sure exactly what it will show immediately after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Euro isn't quite that high but has a very large area of 2+ some pockets of higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 That's a scary amount of moisture with shallow cold air around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 NWS in Kansas City is leaning towards the wetter solution of the Euro for the metro area because of its consistency. Precip type will vary with sleet, snow and freezing rain possible at any point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 12z Para GFS finally came in. The stuff on I-44 and ESE into NWA and MO would be ice of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 27 minutes ago, JoMo said: Hmm Where did you find that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Where did you find that? CIPS analogs http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php?rundt=2017010812 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Just now, JoMo said: CIPS analogs http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php?rundt=2017010812 Sweet. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 00z GFS looks to be going towards a more Euroish solution. Good news for N AR and S MO. bad news for W OK and KS and NW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z GFS looks to be going towards a more Euroish solution. Good news for N AR and S MO. bad news for W OK and KS and NW MO. What a surprise (not). Analogs also seem to agree with the Euro/00Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z GFS looks to be going towards a more Euroish solution. Good news for N AR and S MO. bad news for W OK and KS and NW MO. Yeah...It looks like OKC gets 3" of precip, a lot of it freezing rain. This run would be pretty awful around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, natecast said: Yeah...It looks like OKC gets 3" of precip, a lot of it freezing rain. This run would be pretty awful around here. Actually OKC is right on the freezing line this run for a lot of it. Some ice however maybe 1/4" before warming up above freezing.. Canadian County on the other hand, but so lucky.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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