ouamber Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Must've gotten my years mixed up. 2011 was the Blizzard. I didn't have work for 2 weeks and I had to walk a mile back and forth to the Walgreens to get groceries because you couldn't get around in 14 inches of snow and nobody to plow your streets. That was nuts but those ice storms are much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, ouamber said: 2011 was the Blizzard. I didn't have work for 2 weeks and I had to walk a mile back and forth to the Walgreens to get groceries because you couldn't get around in 14 inches of snow and nobody to plow your streets. That was nuts but those ice storms are much worse. Yeah. I'd much rather just have travel problems than have to go stay at a person's house with a wood stove for 2 weeks. I was lucky enough in 09 that my boss allowed me to go at least be on the clock 3 days out of both weeks that our plant was down. I work in a machine shop now so I won't be that lucky now if we lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Is it really possible this far out though, the models have been terrible at long range? Idk I just cant buy into this yet, maybe if it was 1 or 2 days before the event yea I would prepare but this far...nope not just yet. Absolute worst ice storm I ever seen was in KC back in 01 or 02 it was, insane amounts of ice that city was crushed! Just blue flashes everywhere...trees bent over the roads making it dark and like you were in a tunnel. I remember we had a lot of trees in the yard there and started hearing crashes everywhere from branches snapping, got out of that tiny house really quick and went to stay in the hotel I worked at. I believe it was like 2.0-3.0" of zr on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Is it really possible this far out though, the models have been terrible at long range? Idk I just cant buy into this yet, maybe if it was 1 or 2 days before the event yea I would prepare but this far...nope not just yet. Absolute worst ice storm I ever seen was in KC back in 01 or 02 it was, insane amounts of ice that city was crushed! Just blue flashes everywhere...trees bent over the roads making it dark and like you were in a tunnel. I remember we had a lot of trees in the yard there and started hearing crashes everywhere from branches snapping, got out of that tiny house really quick and went to stay in the hotel I worked at. I believe it was like 2.0-3.0" of zr on everything. 2-3 inches? That's absolutely nuts! Im not sold on next weekend but, I am concerned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Weatherdemon said: 2-3 inches? That's absolutely nuts! Im not sold on next weekend but, I am concerned... Same. Not a lock by any means but definitely going to be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 7 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said: I'll try to stay awake. I wanna puke after the GFS run though. The ice key up there maxes out at my house on the state line there. :-( Pretty much the same here.. maybeI be helped cause I'm around the Boston mnts.. It takes a few more hrs for cold air to make it here...sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 I remember the KC ice storm in 2002. I was in Sedalia and we lucked out as temps were just a degree or two too warm. I vividly remember KCTV 5 having to do their newscasts in an atrium because that was the only place with enough light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 06z GFS holds on to the idea of a major ice storm. It may have even shifted ever so slightly to the NW. The Euro and GFS are in excellent agreement and that's significant to me because we are still several days away. OK, AR, KS and MO need to pay close attention to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Morning all, due to the fact that my Mom lives in Joplin. I'm going to ride along in this thread if you don't mind. May ask some questions due to the fact that I don't know anything about the area. Hoping for anything but ZR! What NWS office provides the best disco's in the area? I know SGF provides her forecast but they seem to have a somewhat limited long term. I'll stay out of the way for the most part but the models have me uneasy as she is alone out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 33 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Morning all, due to the fact that my Mom lives in Joplin. I'm going to ride along in this thread if you don't mind. May ask some questions due to the fact that I don't know anything about the area. Hoping for anything but ZR! What NWS office provides the best disco's in the area? I know SGF provides her forecast but they seem to have a somewhat limited long term. I'll stay out of the way for the most part but the models have me uneasy as she is alone out there. I am going to go against the grain here (probably at my peril) and say that Tulsa is my choice, primarily because they seem to pick up on model trends more than SGF. Springfield, IMHO, operates in a very broad and non-specific way until very close to an event. I will say that SGF is very good during events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 The track will be key here. For example, the Euro gives KC a crushing ice storm with 2" of ice. The GFS gives KC less than a tenth of and inch of ice and maybe 1-2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 I'll be riding this thread too just for the hell of forecasting. Haven't really seen a stronger signal of a ice storm on the GFS this far out in a while. Definitely not locked in, but should pay attention to forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 While definitely an eyebrow raiser I don't think anyone should be taking it too seriously yet. Yes the euro has been consistent and the GFS seems to have come into general agreement but it is still 6 days out and upper lows are notoriously badly handled from this range. The timing of the low ejection is crucial for this event. Too quickly and it runs ahead of the cold air, too slowly and it may allow for the arctic high to move well east and the cold air will easily scour out with southerly flow. Will be interesting to watch for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 hour ago, NavarreDon said: Morning all, due to the fact that my Mom lives in Joplin. I'm going to ride along in this thread if you don't mind. May ask some questions due to the fact that I don't know anything about the area. Hoping for anything but ZR! What NWS office provides the best disco's in the area? I know SGF provides her forecast but they seem to have a somewhat limited long term. I'll stay out of the way for the most part but the models have me uneasy as she is alone out there. The area offices are Springfield, Tulsa, Wichita, Kansas City. And the discussion depends on who's working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 12z GFS.... Might be farther south with the cold air, at least initially... hmmm EDIT: I like how on the 06z GFS... it's 61 degrees at 12z Fri..... and on the 12z GFS it's 31 degrees at the same time... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 12z GFS with the heavy ice in southern MO and OK. Northern MO is pretty dry with maybe a little light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 12z isn't the doomsday that 00z was but still a crippling event, if it's ice. Bullseye still looks like Monett to Springfield and points ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 The 12z GFS wants to warm things above freezing after the initial surge of precip on Saturday/Sun. I'm suspicious of it, especially if there is a 1050-1055mb high pressure to the north, with cold air continuing to advect into the area. If it were to happen as the GFS advertise, the main event would be Friday afternoon-Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 12z GFS is going to have heavy freezing rain across.. oh looks like SE of the I-44 corridor in MO/OK. Sleet just north of that... And then maybe a little snow in NW KS. Think the precip changes are due to the system cutting off and moving across Mexico instead of out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 12z GEM is going to move the system out and appears to be targeting NW AR for the brunt of freezing rain. GEM solution would have some snow across NW OK through central KS into NW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: The 12z GFS wants to warm things above freezing after the initial surge of precip on Saturday/Sun. I'm suspicious of it, especially if there is a 1050-1055mb high pressure to the north, with cold air continuing to advect into the area. If it were to happen as the GFS advertise, the main event would be Friday afternoon-Saturday night. The reason it warms up is because the arctic high moves quickly east and surface flow turns southerly on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: The reason it warms up is because the arctic high moves quickly east and surface flow turns southerly on the backside. I understand that. The high pressure forces the cutoff low into Mexico, while moving to the east and the low never fully comes out. To me, that doesn't seem like a reasonable solution. How many times have we seen shallow cold air hang on tight with impressive warm air advection going on overhead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: I understand that. The high pressure forces the cutoff low into Mexico, while moving to the east and the low never fully comes out. To me, that doesn't seem like a reasonable solution. How many times have we seen shallow cold air hang on tight with impressive warm air advection going on overhead? I tend to agree with you for a couple reason. One being the time of year. It's early January and we are approaching the coldest time of year plus the sun angle isn't that great. The other being experience from previous winter storms where the temps end up lower than the models think. Also, once there's an icy glaze on everything, it tends to prevent warming at the surface. However, there's also the issue with the warmer air above the surface eroding the colder low level airmass with heavy precip rates that actually warm the lower levels as the warmer raindrops drop into the cold air. Actually had this happen a few times before as well with freezing rain changing to rain and warming the temps up 4-5 degrees with a heavy thunderstorm, once that passed the temp dropped back down to 30-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Almost always in an event like the one we are following, the surface cold will verify east/SE of where the models have it. At least in this area I have known that to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, JoMo said: I tend to agree with you for a couple reason. One being the time of year. It's early January and we are approaching the coldest time of year plus the sun angle isn't that great. The other being experience from previous winter storms where the temps end up lower than the models think. Also, once there's an icy glaze on everything, it tends to prevent warming at the surface. However, there's also the issue with the warmer air above the surface eroding the colder low level airmass with heavy precip rates that actually warm the lower levels as the warmer raindrops drop into the cold air. Actually had this happen a few times before as well with freezing rain changing to rain and warming the temps up 4-5 degrees with a heavy thunderstorm, once that passed the temp dropped back down to 30-31. Good point. That may well happen in some of that area. I think 925mb temps will be key here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Yes the models typically under do the southern extent of the arctic air initially. I'm talking about the ceiling for the duration and magnitude of the event. Freezing rain is a self limiting process due to latent heat release in the freezing process. It will warm without a constant supply of fresh cold air at the surface. Hence if the arctic high moves east as shown it is entirely reasonable that temps will be able to warm above freezing with continued precip. You need that high to sit over the top to the north for the duration of the event to reach the doomsday scenarios that were shown before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Yes the models typically under do the southern extent of the arctic air initially. I'm talking about the ceiling for the duration and magnitude of the event. Freezing rain is a self limiting process due to latent heat release in the freezing process. It will warm without a constant supply of fresh cold air at the surface. Hence if the arctic high moves east as shown it is entirely reasonable that temps will be able to warm above freezing with continued precip. You need that high to sit over the top to the north for the duration of the event to reach the doomsday scenarios that were shown before. Very well could be. Most notable and recent event of very very close similarity is January 2009 and in that event, the HP moved well east in a hurry and left a ton of cold behind. Looking at reanalysis it is so darn close. The main question really shifts to what precip rates we need to warm the cold layer. As modeled right now, I don't know if the precip rates are going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Thanks for the replies & great discussion! Seems like you have a handle on weather in your neck of the woods.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Euro went a little warmer and further NW this run. HP looks about 6mb weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 12z Euro is going to be a bit farther north with the cold compared to last night's run. Going to be a bit slower with both the northern stream system passing across Canada and the low over the SW. Heaviest frozen stuff looks like it's going to fall from central/western OK up through eastern KS into NW MO. Near/Above freezing across Southern MO, NW AR and eastern OK... initially. Cold air sinks back a bit farther SE and the 32 degree line is going to be around Joplin it looks like with it gradually lifting north...... Main system ejects with the heaviest frozen occurring across western OK into central/eastern KS into NW MO. Weak surface reflection is going to move from S OK up into SE KS or SW MO and then to central MO. Precip totals are still crazy in the cold air. Generally 1-3" of liquid equiv with some spots getting a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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