Chinook Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 6 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Surface heights from all 4 years. Not in order but you can see the dates. You should use NOAA ESRL/PSD web site for plotting anomalies http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Chinook said: You should use NOAA ESRL/PSD web site for plotting anomalies http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/ Thank you for the link. I've been looking for that one for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Definitely seeing a lot of the same analogs popping up in various winter forecasts. 83-84, 95-96, 13-14 have appeared in numerous analog packages. Also the familiar outlook of the coldest air being across the Great Lakes. The last few runs of the GFS have been bringing colder air in after Nov 10th or so.... I think this is probably too early, but we'll see. Even some digital snow at the end of the run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Definitely seeing a lot of the same analogs popping up in various winter forecasts. 83-84, 95-96, 13-14 have appeared in numerous analog packages. Also the familiar outlook of the coldest air being across the Great Lakes. The last few runs of the GFS have been bringing colder air in after Nov 10th or so.... I think this is probably too early, but we'll see. Even some digital snow at the end of the run: Just saw that. Came to post about it but you beat me to it. I noticed with the cool shot around the 20th this month that the GFS caught it first, then lost it for 5 or 6 days and then brought it back along with the Euro catching up to it and showing it around the same time. Will be an interesting trend to note if this happens again this time around. If it verifies, I will definitely like where the pattern is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Ignoring weather patterns, and going purely by "mean high" analogs, the six closest years to June to October 2016 in Albuquerque are 1978, 1963, 2014, 1954, 2001, 1990, in that order. Those years had very warm Junes, very warm Julys, cool Augusts, mild Septembers, and very warm Octobers, as has been the case this year. The years then saw a slightly warm November, a slightly cool December, a cold January, a slightly cool February, and then a near normal Spring. Pretty big signal for snow here in February, but not out of the question for Dec/Jan. The best three matches, 1978, 1963, 2014, all had top-five February snow storms (6-10 inches) here. I don't necessarily buy this combination of years as what will happen, I think it is too extreme by not including ENSO and the oceans, but if it were right it certainly shows a very cold winter for much of the West (which I don't really buy west of CO/NM) and a slightly cooler than normal winter for much of the country. Cold would be focused on TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 The 384 GEFS from the 06z GEFS looks remarkably similar to the Euro Weeklies last Thurs for around Nov 15th. So it still looks like things are on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: The 384 GEFS from the 06z GEFS looks remarkably similar to the Euro Weeklies last Thurs for around Nov 15th. So it still looks like things are on track. It can't get here fast enough. Tired of the heat already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Tonight's GFS moves the cold shot up to hr 276. Could be early but I hope it works out. I'd like it better if we were inside day 7. Either way, took a good step back into a positive direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 New weeklies today and a new CanSIPS run this evening. Larry Cosgrove's winter forecast looks good for us with a central US trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 2 hours ago, JoMo said: New weeklies today and a new CanSIPS run this evening. Larry Cosgrove's winter forecast looks good for us with a central US trough. I really like Larry Cosgrove's work. I should have paid better attention to his stuff last year. I would have known to cancel winter right from the beginning. Lol. It's just so normal to at least get a late season snowstorm or cold blast in down here in an El Niño that I couldn't give up til it was too late. I don't think anyone could've really predicted that horrible of a winter. Let's not do that again for about another 20 years. SAI finishes today also and it looks like if it fails there will be absolutely no running from it this time. Are you still subscribed to WxBell? If not I will update tonight when I see the weeklies. If they come in colder at the end of November into December than last time, it will be pretty hard not to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: I really like Larry Cosgrove's work. I should have paid better attention to his stuff last year. I would have known to cancel winter right from the beginning. Lol. It's just so normal to at least get a late season snowstorm or cold blast in down here in an El Niño that I couldn't give up til it was too late. I don't think anyone could've really predicted that horrible of a winter. Let's not do that again for about another 20 years. SAI finishes today also and it looks like if it fails there will be absolutely no running from it this time. Are you still subscribed to WxBell? If not I will update tonight when I see the weeklies. If they come in colder at the end of November into December than last time, it will be pretty hard not to get excited. Yep, still subscribed until Nov 19th I think. If it looks like we're going to get a winter this year, I may resub month to month until Feb or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 3 hours ago, JoMo said: Yep, still subscribed until Nov 19th I think. If it looks like we're going to get a winter this year, I may resub month to month until Feb or something. Ok. Cool. I like your analysis on the weeklies better than mine so I will let you do it instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Looks like the parallel Euro Ensemble weeklies ran yesterday. Only 7 day increments and no surface temps available. Generally shows the same Aleutian low backing off mid-Nov... troughing central and east US. Doesn't really look cold (850 anomalies) until the end of Nov into Dec. The Aleutian low eventually weakens as we head into the first week of Dec. Nice -EPO showing up. The ridge retrogrades back to where the Aleutian low was as we head into week 2 of Dec and new troughing looks to be trying to develop over the western (NW) US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Euro weeklies today show the expected pattern of the Aleutian low backing off, troughing in the central and eastern US in mid-Nov. It's a bit farther north though as we head into late Nov. Aleutian low gradually replaced by ridging as we head into early Dec which results in lower heights over the NW US, and signs of a SE ridge. This is more of a Nina look and a -PNA. From there, things get a bit more convoluted with no clear signal as we head into the 2nd week of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 CANSIPS is pretty meh. Feb being the most meh month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 This all reminds me of 06-07 all over. Ok ok I'm no where near as good as you guys at reading maps, understanding them etc. hell I basically fail at comprehending it all with my good ole short term memory lol. But I like to actually write stuff down and just watch over the years with my "eyes" and learn stuff being outdoors. But anyways I remember when I moved from jersey to missouri in september of 06 it was brutally hot late september/early october. But man those 2 years were awesome in central MO!! we had some nice snows and really scary ice storms. I have noticed, wait didn't I mention this before lol, that hot summers usually bring a nasty winter....most times it seems! This is one warm october though one of the warmest I can remember, last year was no fluke either! It makes me nervous but at the same time I go back to my old thinking, hot summer good winter. I guess time will tell huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 39 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: This all reminds me of 06-07 all over. Ok ok I'm no where near as good as you guys at reading maps, understanding them etc. hell I basically fail at comprehending it all with my good ole short term memory lol. But I like to actually write stuff down and just watch over the years with my "eyes" and learn stuff being outdoors. But anyways I remember when I moved from jersey to missouri in september of 06 it was brutally hot late september/early october. But man those 2 years were awesome in central MO!! we had some nice snows and really scary ice storms. I have noticed, wait didn't I mention this before lol, that hot summers usually bring a nasty winter....most times it seems! This is one warm october though one of the warmest I can remember, last year was no fluke either! It makes me nervous but at the same time I go back to my old thinking, hot summer good winter. I guess time will tell huh? A little uncertain right now. I think we get colder by the end of the month into Dec. From there, not sure what's going to happen as the weeklies have a somewhat flat look which indicates a wide range of solutions are possible. Of course, all the models had Asia on fire in Oct and way above normal, and then reality hit and it's an Arctic tundra way below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Or JoMo, maybe another blowtorch winter with a trace of snow lol! Jeez I really hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 JMA week 3-4 looks good as the -EPO builds. Here comes the colder temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 Nothing really new to report in the Euro weeklies update. Looks to get a bit cooler in late Nov into early Dec and from there, it's kind of a question mark. Not really seeing anything that points to an Arctic chill that lasts, through Mid-Dec though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 The SST CA has updated for Nov. Those low heights in the GOA leads to a warmer than normal type of look. And it shows in the temps, although things aren't too bad: JFM actually has a finger of colder temps down the Plains, this is slightly warmer from last months run. Precip has increased a small bit back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 7 hours ago, JoMo said: The SST CA has updated for Nov. Those low heights in the GOA leads to a warmer than normal type of look. And it shows in the temps, although things aren't too bad: JFM actually has a finger of colder temps down the Plains, this is slightly warmer from last months run. Precip has increased a small bit back west. Is the CA initialized off the CFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Constructed analogue method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Another day, another Earthquake. Getting to be the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 33 minutes ago, JoMo said: Another day, another Earthquake. Getting to be the norm. Pretty big one 5.3 as of now, though can be adjusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 2 hours ago, Stebo said: Pretty big one 5.3 as of now, though can be adjusted. Looks like they adjusted down to 5.0. This one felt weaker compared to the stronger one a couple months ago. I barely felt the one the other night. Still a weird feeling though. Probably not a good thing the town sits on a bunch of old mine shafts when you have Earthquakes, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Just now, JoMo said: Looks like they adjusted down to 5.0. This one felt weaker compared to the stronger one a couple months ago. I barely felt the one the other night. Still a weird feeling though. Probably not a good thing the town sits on a bunch of old mine shafts when you have Earthquakes, either. Yeah I could imagine that is unsettling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Yeah I could imagine that is unsettling. I never felt it but yeah it is a bit unsettling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Recent model runs continue to indicate a flip for the last 1/3 of this month. Getting more into the time range I was thinking it could happen initially as well. Even trying to break out some light snow accums over the higher terrain areas of eastern OK/NWA. Fantasyland obviously but I think it's starting to have a lot more value than some of the false cold we have been seeing advertised in the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Yeah the medium range does offer some cooldowns below normal from time to time. Euro weeklies today still aren't very clear on what happens after the first week of Dec. It has a very 'flat' look, which either means that it's going to be a flat zonal type of flow, or there's a large variety of solutions/timing differences with the individual ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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