MUWX Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Gfs is ugly. Don't know enough to know if it's sleet or ice but that is a long duration heavy event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 00z GFS is devastating. EDIT: QPF is close to 6 inches in NW AR and SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 I truly hope it's not as bad as the 0z GFS is saying it will be!! That would devastating!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 That run looks very similar to the 18z mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Well if you weren't paying attention before, that will wake you up. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 00z GEM has ice as well but not nearly as much this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Is that level of QPF even realistic at this time of year? Good lord... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Weatherdemon said: Is that level of QPF even realistic at this time of year? Good lord... Last Christmas we got a foot but wasn't freezing. It's possible. Not sure if it's possible at 28 degrees though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 00z GFS Precip type maps.... These stop at 2" of liquid equiv and it's about 2-3" of freezing rain in NW AR down into OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Not going to stay up for the Euro, got to be up early. Hopefully someone will, and will update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, JoMo said: Not going to stay up for the Euro, got to be up early. Hopefully someone will, and will update. I'll try to stay awake. I wanna puke after the GFS run though. The ice key up there maxes out at my house on the state line there. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Yep GFS goes bonkers..thank you all for the ratios of sleet, I've etc..its been a few yrs since I had endured one back up in the PNW but models are trending I know it's early but local Mets started discussing it tonight in late edition after the ballgame..GEM is more snow on this run my way..be anxious to hear what Euro says. Can you post when someone gets a look appreciate it! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: I wanna puke after the GFS run though. The ice key up there maxes out at my house on the state line there. :-( If the GFS maxes out right over you at this range, you probably have little to worry about, lol. Nonetheless, the GFS is giving me 2009 flashbacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Ozarkwx I did not live here in 2009?? I take it that was real bad?? If I remember correctly I was at a conference in LA and one of my fellow club mgrs had to return to OKC because of bad ice storm. Had to bring in refrigerator truck to keep all food cold because power was to be out 2 weeks..i think that was 2009 so I'm thinking that's the one your referring too?Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, STL Scott said: Ozarkwx I did not live here in 2009?? I take it that was real bad?? If I remember correctly I was at a conference in LA and one of my fellow club mgrs had to return to OKC because of bad ice storm. Had to bring in refrigerator truck to keep all food cold because power was to be out 2 weeks..i think that was 2009 so I'm thinking that's the one your referring too? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Yes, January 29 as i recall. It was devastating to NW AR through KY and heavily impacted a much wider swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 2009 looked like a war zone. Some areas with an inch or more of fz rain. NWAR was hit extremely hard. Giant trees snapped everywhere. You could hear them breaking well off in the distance. Sounded like shots from a canon. Tons of power lines down. Very nightmarish event. If the GFS or Euro versions came anywhere close to what they're showing I can't imagine the widespread devastation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 2009 looked like a war zone. Some areas with an inch or more of fz rain. NWAR was hit extremely hard. Giant trees snapped everywhere. You could hear them breaking well off in the distance. Sounded like shots from a canon. Tons of power lines down. Very nightmarish event. If the GFS or Euro versions came anywhere close to what they're showing I can't imagine the widespread devastation. My town in '09. Westville, OK. https://www.google.com/url?q=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DrFrj2v0z4UI&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiXlben7rHRAhUi54MKHYm6B5EQtwIIGjAA&sig2=C6IyKd2HN3m5mowpJAof9A&usg=AFQjCNHpoUIHdLcRPwDN2IJsDhqx-9FBDw Should open the YouTube video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Yea, 2009 had OKC and Tulsa metros without power. The day before it was supposed to be bad I was at our cabin by Ft Gibson. It was cold with light rain. My wife calls at noon and says the power is out at our house north of Owasso due to the ice. I was like WTH? We packed up and came home and there were 30 inch tree trunks split three ways by our house with 3/4 of an inch of ice. Woke up up at 6 the next morning and 1/2 the state had no power. The only positive was that ground temps were warm and the air temp was around 30 so roads were passable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 It looks like the 00z Euro is almost identical to the 12z with a 2+ inch ice storm just NW of I44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 If models continue this idea/solution at 12Z, hype and worry train will absolutely explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 What's bad is, being the Euro, you can almost always count on an eastward shift. Anyone have the EuroWx ice map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Euro freezing rain accumulations are the same as the GFS but NW of I44. EDIT: Which, if the eastward shift occurs, pretty much hammers the I44 corridor from OKC NE to Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Euro freezing rain accumulations are the same as the GFS but NW of I44. EDIT: Which, if the eastward shift occurs, pretty much hammers the I44 corridor from OKC NE to Ohio. Yeah. Ensembles will be very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Found an ice map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 A blend of the Euro and GFS puts all that ice directly over the I-44 corridor. How far in advance can the NWS put an ice storm watch out?? I pray this trends colder, but this could be very bad for a lot of people and they should be given preparation time. Most of Tulsa had no power in 2009, and my family had to stay with us in our one bedroom apartment for 2 weeks. I remember driving down major roadways with no lights from restaurants, no street lamps, no traffic lights, and trees and power lines down everywhere. Mass chaos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, ouamber said: A blend of the Euro and GFS puts all that ice directly over the I-44 corridor. How far in advance can the NWS put an ice storm watch out?? I pray this trends colder, but this could be very bad for a lot of people and they should be given preparation time. Most of Tulsa had no power in 2009, and my family had to stay with us in our one bedroom apartment for 2 weeks. I remember driving down major roadways with no lights from restaurants, no street lamps, no traffic lights, and trees and power lines down everywhere. Mass chaos! I keep getting mixed up. Wasn't the bad Tulsa ice storm in February 2011 not 09? I think they could probably start headlines on it Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning but as far as warnings go, probably not until Thursday maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, ouamber said: A blend of the Euro and GFS puts all that ice directly over the I-44 corridor. How far in advance can the NWS put an ice storm watch out?? I pray this trends colder, but this could be very bad for a lot of people and they should be given preparation time. Most of Tulsa had no power in 2009, and my family had to stay with us in our one bedroom apartment for 2 weeks. I remember driving down major roadways with no lights from restaurants, no street lamps, no traffic lights, and trees and power lines down everywhere. Mass chaos! It was almost mass chaos. A lady I worked with had no power for 3 weeks and stayed at her moms. My wife was a manager at Chilis in Claremore and was having to buy supplies at WalMart because trucks couldn't get into OK. She called about a generator there and I said to buy it and she sat on it in Walmart until an associate came by to help her buy it and get to her van. My buddy and I were driving to Wagoner to pick up 2 generators for my sisters and we saw a convoy of about 30 utility trucks from out of state on the turnpike. We rolled down the windows to cheer them and were flashing our lights and honking our horns at them. We laughed as we never thought we would be so happy to see utility trucks! I SO hope that doesn't happen to anyone but it certainly looks like it might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Cerakoter1984 said: I keep getting mixed up. Wasn't the bad Tulsa ice storm in February 2011 not 09? It was definitely 2009 and 2007. Those both were crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, ouamber said: It was definitely 2009 and 2007. Those both were crippling. Must've gotten my years mixed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Must've gotten my years mixed up. 2007 was more SE OK. I spent a lot of chainsaw time by Ft Gibson that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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