Wx 24/7 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Yeah, it has been a pretty rare sight to see the GFS, EURO, and GEM all on the same general page this far ahead. They have differences, of course, to how they get to the same place. It will be something to watch indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 OKC officially dropped to -3 this morning, tying a 105-year old record low. Only 3rd time in last 26 years it has fallen below zero at the airport. Impressive cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Unlike the 06z run of the GFS, the 12z looks like the northern stream is going to not drop off any energy so this run will likely be farther north with more of a lead wave instead of with a second wave. This will likely just result in a stronger cold frontal passage with the precip out ahead of any winter weather except in like Iowa or maybe NW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 12z GEM is going to go ice storm. Looks to be stalling the front a bit farther north though. KS/..Central/N MO would be in the icy air while southern MO and OK would get to enjoy mild 60 degree weather initially... with the cold air eventually seeping farther S across OK and then E. AR probably misses out on the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Jomo, is there a link that shows ice totals anywhere for any of the models? Tropical Tidbits doesn't show that info that I know of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 The GEM is an ice storm and the 12z GFS is a strong frontal passage with nothing but rain out ahead. The GFS is notorious for losing systems and bringing them back. We will see what the euro has to say. My preference is usually the euro for long range (6-10 days) and the GFS once we get within 48-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Seeing chatter on Twitter on FB about this already. Seems too early to advertise a massive ice storm on social media IMO but it is interesting nonetheless. I would much prefer 4-12 inches of snow vs 1/2-2 inches of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 42 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Jomo, is there a link that shows ice totals anywhere for any of the models? Tropical Tidbits doesn't show that info that I know of. http://www.pivotalweather.com/ does for the GEM/GFS. Freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 12z Euro going ice storm as well. Crushing ice storm for OK, (except E OK).... Kansas, Much of Missouri (except for far southern parts). It'll start as ice in N AR and S MO, but will change over to rain at some point it looks like... at least this run. It may change back over to ice/sleet/snow as the system departs... Snow probably in far N MO, Northern and western KS... Possibly changing to snow in central KS to NW MO as the system departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 39 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro going ice storm as well. Crushing ice storm for OK, (except E OK).... Kansas, Much of Missouri (except for far southern parts). It'll start as ice in N AR and S MO, but will change over to rain at some point it looks like... at least this run. It may change back over to ice/sleet/snow as the system departs... Snow probably in far N MO, Northern and western KS... Possibly changing to snow in central KS to NW MO as the system departs. The Euro says 8C at 850mb in Oklahoma City, while the surface is 30F. I hope you guys don't get that thermal setup with that much ice. This is pretty far out in the future, so there's still plenty of time for the models to shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Tulsa NWS showing 1/3+ inch of ice across most of NE OK down to McAlester and back to OKC with significant snow in NC/NW OK and S Kansas next weekend. That's pretty far out for them to be putting that on their hazard page so it seems they're thinking there is a legitimate concern. EDIT: Both Norman and Tulsa are now mentioning the potential in their text products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Weatherdemon said: Tulsa NWS showing 1/3+ inch of ice across most of NE OK down to McAlester and back to OKC with significant snow in NC/NW OK and S Kansas next weekend. That's pretty far out for them to be putting that on their hazard page so it seems they're thinking there is a legitimate concern. EDIT: Both Norman and Tulsa are now mentioning the potential in their text products. Glad most of it stays abit west/NW of me. If not snow...forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Spot said: Glad most of it stays abit west/NW of me. If not snow...forget it. Yep, hoping for the NW trend on this one..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Yep, hoping for the NW trend on this one..... Yea, definitely don't want the crazy ice. On the positive side, QPF looks good regardless of precip type and we can use all the moisture we can get right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 18z GFS back on with ice and further south into all of AR and Southern MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 18z GEFS members... The 'snow' is actually mostly sleet on this map... So the amounts will be off and it isn't actually snow, but you can see that a lot of the members are farther NW than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Wow that's some hefty totals even if sleet ..if I'm reading this right that's 3- 5" sleet..at least with a 5:1 ratio does that sound right JoMo? Especially up here in STL or will it be more snow if taking verbatim..Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, STL Scott said: Wow that's some hefty totals even if sleet ..if I'm reading this right that's 3- 5" sleet..at least with a 5:1 ratio does that sound right JoMo? Especially up here in STL or will it be more snow if taking verbatim.. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Not sure if you can convert it like that or not. I was just showing the farther NW location of the 'frozen' precip on the GFS ens. members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Guess this needs to be watched for sure, Jeeez why ice! I hate hate hate ice storms! Hopefully its another panel run of e8 or e18 happening lol. Way way way too far out for me to buy this junk again haha. Like the xmas storm all over except ice this time lol. But yea you watch it will probably happen beings its something most of us dread and hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 I don't care if it is freezing rain, sleet or snow as long as it is frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 hour ago, STL Scott said: Wow that's some hefty totals even if sleet ..if I'm reading this right that's 3- 5" sleet..at least with a 5:1 ratio does that sound right JoMo? Especially up here in STL or will it be more snow if taking verbatim.. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Well...cherry picking E4 verbatim it is the 3-4" range of sleet...liquid equivalent. The snow clown map is not that far from being maxed out. So basically it's about as close to a statistical impossibility as you can get. But, yeah, many of the members are hefty sleet amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Well the fine details of placement of the cold air will be worked out as we get closer, it does look like the Gulf will be able to be tapped, in addition to the Pineapple Express. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 hour ago, bdgwx said: Well...cherry picking E4 verbatim it is the 3-4" range of sleet...liquid equivalent. The snow clown map is not that far from being maxed out. So basically it's about as close to a statistical impossibility as you can get. But, yeah, many of the members are hefty sleet amounts. The E4 ensemble has 48" of snow in Missouri. The storm better stall for about a week. That doesn't usually happen. Actually the GEFS ensemble plumes have a maximum of 5.78" of QPF in Missouri from day-4.5 to day-9. What is the usual sleet-depth to water ratio in these more substantial sleet storms? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Wx 24/7 was telling me via text that the sleet ratio ranges from 2.5:1 to 4.5:1 but the average is 3:1. Freezing rain is 1.25:1. I'm not sure where he got those numbers but I trust him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, MUWX said: Wx 24/7 was telling me via text that the sleet ratio ranges from 2.5:1 to 4.5:1 but the average is 3:1. Freezing rain is 1.25:1. I'm not sure where he got those numbers but I trust him. Those sound pretty close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Looks like a long sleepless week of model watching coming up to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Yes, 3:1 for sleet is a good first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 00z GFS looks to be prepping for an ice storm.... Edit: Yep, gonna leave the system in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 The 12z Para GFS is absolutely crazy. QPF's between 2-4 inches in AR/MO. WOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Absolutely crushing ice storm in NW AR/SW MO this run. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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