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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion


lookingnorth

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10 minutes ago, Travisstorma said:

Broken Arrow schools closed. I can remember having several inches of snow and still having school when I was younger. 

No doubt same way when I was young.   They look for a reason now.  Schools here around Springdale and Fayetteville are closed and I drove into work my normal 80 MPH the whole way. 

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1 hour ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Nope another bust lol...cant be too much i still see the grass haha. Just another craptastic dusting. I see the jokers decided to pull the advisory for here lol. Their forecast makes no sense ever, they had the advisory up for an hour but the forecast said 20 percent chance still lmao. I swear this city has a giant hole around it that prevents snow, congrats to u though spot!!! You know its bad when spot gets snow and we dont lol

Yah I'm about done even caring around here anymore.  Not over an inch of snow here since maybe January 2015.  I move to arkansas and winter disappears. 

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8 hours ago, Chinook said:

KOKC, snow, 1/2 mile visibility, 16 degrees. Is this some of the best snow that OKC has seen in 2 winters?

Definitely our best snow in 2 winters.  OKC officially received 1.2" ALL of last winter.  In Edmond/North OKC, I'd estimate we got about 3".  Nice light, powdery snow.

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2 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Yah I'm about done even caring around here anymore.  Not over an inch of snow here since maybe January 2015.  I move to arkansas and winter disappears. 

I know man, I doubt we will stay here. My girlfriends parents are here though so it keeps us from leaving, ugh but I agree no more winters for us it seems lol. I really wanna move back to KC actually, I really miss it there! I been looking at places around St.Joe missouri a lil north of kc cause its an awesome small town area. Oh well what can we do ya know, its just weird how we get badly missed with everything. Someone told me oh its because fayetteville is kinda in a bowl between the hills, Idk though our elevation is fairly high at the rental here....about 1250 feet so I doubt its what they were saying with the bowl theory lol.

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1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

Some of us missed snow by 5-10 miles.  That kills me.  

Tracking this the last 7 days is a week we'll never get back.  Someone remind me why we torture ourselves over this.

Crazy huh, did you get anything at all up that way or no? Hell it seems even I was too far north this time, which is rare to say haha.

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41 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

I know man, I doubt we will stay here. My girlfriends parents are here though so it keeps us from leaving, ugh but I agree no more winters for us it seems lol. I really wanna move back to KC actually, I really miss it there! I been looking at places around St.Joe missouri a lil north of kc cause its an awesome small town area. Oh well what can we do ya know, its just weird how we get badly missed with everything. Someone told me oh its because fayetteville is kinda in a bowl between the hills, Idk though our elevation is fairly high at the rental here....about 1250 feet so I doubt its what they were saying with the bowl theory lol.

St Joe would be nice.   U would almost be guaranteed a winter there.   This place is good for variety of weather all but snow it seems. 

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Day 6-10 still needs to be watched closely because there could be a pretty big ice/snow storm somewhere in there. It's going to depend on how strong and how far south the cold air push makes it. The 12z Euro is going bonkers with ice though.........  OK/KS/MO probably needs to be more on the lookout for this one. This looks like a shallow Arctic airmass thing we get sometimes in the winter where they don't make it past the Ozark mountains down in Arkansas. Wherever that front hangs up, look for ice on the NW side of it......

 

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51 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Day 6-10 still needs to be watched closely because there could be a pretty big ice/snow storm somewhere in there. It's going to depend on how strong and how far south the cold air push makes it. The 12z Euro is going bonkers with ice though.........  OK/KS/MO probably needs to be more on the lookout for this one. This looks like a shallow Arctic airmass thing we get sometimes in the winter where they don't make it past the Ozark mountains down in Arkansas. Wherever that front hangs up, look for ice on the NW side of it......

 

Interesting.   GFS had a stormy look in that time-frame as well.

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2 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

St Joe would be nice.   U would almost be guaranteed a winter there.   This place is good for variety of weather all but snow it seems. 

Yea my gf's best friend in KC has been sending us a ton of pics lately, even there they havent been getting the usual amounts of snow but still way more than here. I get so damn jelous seeing the tons of snow pics though haha. They got another few inches early in the week, suckers. It seems like north of the river in kc is the cutoff line for the good stuff there. Gf also has an uncle up close around maryville MO and man they get a ton of snow up that way, looks like a small quiet town also!

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3 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Interesting.   GFS had a stormy look in that time-frame as well.

 

General pattern looks the same as it has where things won't kick up until well SE of I44.

I understand a lot but not the intricacies of non-severe weather but I do recognize that we are in the same pattern we were from about 2011-2014 where the dynamics don't come together across NE OK for much of anything.

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Yes as JoMo pointed out Friday - Sunday could be very interesting in KS/MO/AK..will see models are toying with a couple of disturbances overunning Cold/Arctic Air built up over the North..luckly for us snow lovers most of the northern us will and is in the freezer which will help reintensify the cold air if a storm can generate and pull air down from the north with a deeping trough...lets hope

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3 hours ago, The Waterboy said:

I'm not super excited about any threat next week.  The EPO is about to go positive by the end of next week and strongly positive thereafter.  I just don't see where the cold air would be coming from.  Someone please feel free to jump in with more insight.   

Strongly agree. System would likely have to be A. Much further south than currently depicted, or 2. Very strong, for it to pull down enough cold air for any of us to see much if any wintry precip. Trend this season in the models has been snowy, wet, and cold in the mid-range with systems, then much drier in the short-range, warmer too in a few cases. The potential Christmas Day storm trended exactly like that, as have several other potential snow makers. 

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15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Philly-forum visitor....Man that ice storm on the EURO was epic tonight. There has been hints of moisture forming on a stalled front out ahead of a shortwave in the Southwest for a few runs now. This is a legit threat IMO

Yeah. I agree. Just don't want to go all bonkers just yet. I do feel it has some merit to it. It would be so devastating.

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Indeed, quite an ice storm on the Euro starting Friday, and quite a snowstorm on the backside across central KS and NW OK. NW MO could get some snow as well. It's all going to depend on how cold the Arctic front is and how far south it makes it and if it even happens.

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7 hours ago, The Waterboy said:

I'm not super excited about any threat next week.  The EPO is about to go positive by the end of next week and strongly positive thereafter.  I just don't see where the cold air would be coming from.  Someone please feel free to jump in with more insight.   

There's one last system that moves across southern Canada which drops a cold front/Arctic high south. At the same time, the Euro has a strong system over the SW moving out which results in SW flow above the cold air. 

After that, things turn more zonal across Canada due to the +EPO and it warms up.

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Both the Euro, GEM and the 06z GFS continue to show a winter storm in the Fri-Sun time period. OK, KS and MO could see some ice and snow. To early to pinpoint specific locations and type of precipitation but the idea is certainly on the table. 

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