JoMo Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Yesterdays Euro weeklies would suggest that a colder pattern starts in the middle of Nov with troughing over the central and eastern US. Interesting forecast: https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-20162017/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 49 minutes ago, JoMo said: Yesterdays Euro weeklies would suggest that a colder pattern starts in the middle of Nov with troughing over the central and eastern US. Interesting forecast: https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-20162017/ Nice forecast! I love it. Can't really disagree with any of it actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 GEFS has a full PV split in around 7 days. This has to be good right? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 9 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said: GEFS has a full PV split in around 7 days. This has to be good right? :-) Anything that keeps the PV weak is a good thing. Not sure how long that's going to stick around though. I'd hate for that to happen too early and then the PV tightens up as we head into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 You have a good point but there's a huge amount of heat flux. I don't know if it could restrengthen or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 I just hope we all don't get burnt again this winter like last season! So far, these temps in october are just downright crazy! Cerakoter you said this in an old message conversation we had, spot on man lol. I know I am not going to get my hopes up this year until things play out more, but right now....for me I consider this hot for fall!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 1 hour ago, NwWhiteOut said: I just hope we all don't get burnt again this winter like last season! So far, these temps in october are just downright crazy! Cerakoter you said this in an old message conversation we had, spot on man lol. I know I am not going to get my hopes up this year until things play out more, but right now....for me I consider this hot for fall!!! It is hard for me to get excited about the oncoming winter with us not having the first frost yet here . Normally we have a killer frost around the 12th of October . Also the leaves are turning brown and falling without any color : ( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 27 minutes ago, Doramo said: It is hard for me to get excited about the oncoming winter with us not having the first frost yet here . Normally we have a killer frost around the 12th of October . Also the leaves are turning brown and falling without any color : ( That's what is going on here as well, I have not seen much color in the leaves at all. My neighbor has a big oak tree in his yard and the leaves are just dying and falling off. No frost yet here either, got chilly a few times at night but nothing major yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Doramo said: It is hard for me to get excited about the oncoming winter with us not having the first frost yet here . Normally we have a killer frost around the 12th of October . Also the leaves are turning brown and falling without any color : ( Typically my first frost is around the 19th so not extremely late yet. I've tried to find a link between the frost dates and types of winter seasons that followed. Not really much of a correlation really. I have hated it being so warm also but at the same time I'm not really panicked about anything. October should finish around 2 degrees above average around here so not terrible either. The upper atmosphere is literally doing some insane things right now so I really believe that it's only a matter of when and not if the cold gets down here this year. I have a pretty impressive idea for what's coming and knew it would take a pretty special set of circumstances for it to happen. The atmosphere is performing above and beyond even my own expectations at this point in the year for most, if not all, of those things to occur as we get into the middle part of November to set up possibly one of the better Decembers that we have had in awhile. If I'm wrong, I will learn something new. If I'm not wrong though, it sure will be exciting around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 The Euro weeklies from Thurs had big changes as we head to the middle of Nov. Colder look as troughing happens in the central and eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: The Euro weeklies from Thurs had big changes as we head to the middle of Nov. Colder look as troughing happens in the central and eastern US. Yeah. If I wouldn't get banned for posting the images, I would just post them. Someone usually let's a few slip on the other forum I'm a part of though. I'm the lone member from this far south in their region though. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Euro Weeklies today still look good for mid-Nov changes. Troughing still showing up as we enter the 2nd to 3rd week of Nov. Looks like a -EPO for sure and probably a -AO happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 3 hours ago, JoMo said: Euro Weeklies today still look good for mid-Nov changes. Troughing still showing up as we enter the 2nd to 3rd week of Nov. Looks like a -EPO for sure and probably a -AO happening. The Euro weeklies must not look anything like these last several forecasts from the CFS. Given the warmth in the US this month, and the GEFS averages in the 1-15 day time frame, I could imagine early November looking like these plots. The negative AO index (right now, and up to Nov 1st) and possible snowcover advance in Russia makes me wonder if December will turn colder. The negative AO index in the short term may not move any extra-cold air away from the Arctic Circle-- because it's not that cold. Check the GEFS and EPS temp anomalies on day 10. North America and the Arctic Ocean are warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 8 hours ago, Chinook said: The Euro weeklies must not look anything like these last several forecasts from the CFS. Given the warmth in the US this month, and the GEFS averages in the 1-15 day time frame, I could imagine early November looking like these plots. The negative AO index (right now, and up to Nov 1st) and possible snowcover advance in Russia makes me wonder if December will turn colder. The negative AO index in the short term may not move any extra-cold air away from the Arctic Circle-- because it's not that cold. Check the GEFS and EPS temp anomalies on day 10. North America and the Arctic Ocean are warm! The GEFS only goes out to around Nov 10th or so. The Euro Weeklies look pretty similar to the GEFS at the end of this period. From there, the Weeklies have the lower heights backing west to around the Aleutians. This continues to produce lower heights across the south and east US. This doesn't look cold at this time but definitely more active. As this pattern continues through mid-month the lower heights continue to expand west through Colorado and New Mexico. The storminess out by the Aleutians continues to retrograde through the rest of the period as lower heights continue over the central and eastern US. The persistently cold stuff probably doesn't arrive until late Nov into early Dec as that's when the -EPO looks to become really established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 I understand the top analog pattern on the GFS super ensembles has been 1983 quite a bit lately. If I understand correctly that December there was a direct Siberian discharge straight across Alaska and all the way to south Texas. If you like cold, it's not a bad analog to have. Just hope there's some snow with it when it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Looks somewhat like an El Nino hangover on the CFS v2 maps for Late Nov/Dec/Early Jan. Storm track across the southern US. After that, somewhat meh. http://www.wxcaster.com/cfsv2_charts1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 20 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said: I understand the top analog pattern on the GFS super ensembles has been 1983 quite a bit lately. If I understand correctly that December there was a direct Siberian discharge straight across Alaska and all the way to south Texas. If you like cold, it's not a bad analog to have. Just hope there's some snow with it when it comes. Yep. Coldest day in Chicago history was 12/24/1983: high -11, low -25. About 42 degrees below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: Yep. Coldest day in Chicago history was 12/24/1983: high -11, low -25. About 42 degrees below normal. Here in dallas the low was 5 and the high was 13. Departure of -38. Greatest departure I've found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 5 hours ago, Quixotic1 said: Here in dallas the low was 5 and the high was 13. Departure of -38. Greatest departure I've found. I think that was the statewide coldest day in Texas history correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 7 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said: I think that was the statewide coldest day in Texas history correct? If it isn't, it's top three. February 1899 and December 1989 would be up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 JMA weekly update today... Has a similar look as the Euro at weeks 3-4. Aleutian low, with lower heights across the central and eastern US Still not a cold look though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Bastardi noted today and yesterday that the JMA didn't really have a cold look over Asia for this time frame either. I'd say 30F below average is pretty cold. I'm anxious to see if that cold can dislodge from over there into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 4 hours ago, Quixotic1 said: If it isn't, it's top three. February 1899 and December 1989 would be up there. Very true. I get 1983 and 1989 confused a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Euro Weeklies update generally keeps the same theme going from the last weeklies and the JMA. Aleutian low is going to gradually retrograde with lower heights developing over the central and eastern US by mid-Nov. The Aleutian low retrograding pumps up the -EPO which should lead to an increase in colder air as we go into late Nov into early Dec. Some question on the location and how far south the colder air makes it though. The control has more of a SE ridge and a -PNA look into early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Euro Weeklies update generally keeps the same theme going from the last weeklies and the JMA. Aleutian low is going to gradually retrograde with lower heights developing over the central and eastern US by mid-Nov. The Aleutian low retrograding pumps up the -EPO which should lead to an increase in colder air as we go into late Nov into early Dec. Some question on the location and how far south the colder air makes it though. The control has more of a SE ridge and a -PNA look into early Dec. Dumps a crap load of snow in the west on the control and brings the snow line down into oklahoma on the ensembles. I just don't get that if the ridge pops up in the west and the cold dumps into the east as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Mr. Huffman has his Winter Forecast up in PDF format. For us, AR/MO is -1 to -2 for Dec. OK/KS is more normal. Jan is near normal in MO and northern AR most of KS. Bit above normal in OK. Feb is -1 to -2 below normal. 125-200% of normal snowfall from say Joplin to the NE. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/research/Winter2016-17Forecast.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 The AO has been quite negative this month so far, but about 90% of the CONUS has been above average sfc temp and much of the CONUS has above normal 500mb height for the month. Some areas quite warm. That's kind of an odd signal going forth into the winter-- negative AO Octobers should be correlated with some much cooler air into the central and eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 29 minutes ago, Chinook said: The AO has been quite negative this month so far, but about 90% of the CONUS has been above average sfc temp and much of the CONUS has above normal 500mb height for the month. Some areas quite warm. That's kind of an odd signal going forth into the winter-- negative AO Octobers should be correlated with some much cooler air into the central and eastern US. Did some research last night. 3 best matching years I could find from Oct 1-Oct 24th were 1983, 2010, and 2013. Obviously a lot stronger blocking this early this year than in those seasons but the key locations of features over the entire Northern Hemisphere is the best it can get in my opinion. I'm pretty convinced of a cold season that will be quite memorable for many. Mid-November may be our first good example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Surface heights from all 4 years. Not in order but you can see the dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 I think I heard Joe Bastardi say in their (free & public) daily update video that their winter analogs are: 1960 1966 x3 1983 x3 1995 x3 2008 2013 x2 2014 Forecast update is supposed to be out soon on Premium. These years may only be what they are using for Dec-Feb so the progression may not matter in Nov, or Mar/Apr. I like the Nov-Dec progression shown in the years in the image though. I do think the cold gets to the West in Jan or Feb, or both though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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